[SF Monedge]

How bad is your analyst?  The S/P 500 is 90% above what the average of analysts predicted.

[SF Monedge]

Monedge views a lot of “internals” including those pertaining to stocks, not only in the US, to find a consensus of market flows.  This morning one thing catching our attention is the Nasdaq 50 index rejecting 3 months highs.  It would arguably require something strong to move Nasdaq up further this week and stick.  This translates to currencies like Euro which are quite largely risk on/off motivated.

[Mtl JP]

just raing CB hard-working communicators
–
11:45 barr – at some fireside chat
13:00 BOE’s bailey yaks
19:00 bostic moderates a panel w/collins and mester

22:00 RBNZ Official Cash Rate 22-May 5.5% 5.5%
23:00 RBNZ Governor presser post OCR

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9112 +

hahaha looks like some of my degenerate trade buddies did not think so
as I m left lookin only with my tongue hanging out in envy

[SF Monedge]

Bank stocks are steadily declining following the initial grandma style climb up from the open.  Not favorable to Euro if it sticks.

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9104
–
I am biased
– in favour of my wallet. think most of the run is now done

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD: TESTED KEY 1.2726 C RESISTANCE (SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THE HART POSTED EARLIER)

[Mtl JP]

DLRCHF 9090
–
testing Sup
I am biased BoD

[Mtl JP]

Canada’s consumer price index
–
* cooled to 2.7 per cent in April, down from 2.9 per cent in March, led by the slower growth of food prices, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

CBC – basically a gov’t mouthpiece – says abaout the CPI:
– “The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation also eased — a happy sign for the central bank, which will make its next interest rate decision on June 5.

Many economists expect that the bank will start cutting rates at that meeting.”

[Mtl JP]

GVI 01:27 / illogical eh ?

BUT that is where the retail trader can game theme of what the CB suits wish to instill into player psychie and the degeree of resistance by player collective to “assimilate” or resist assimilation.

the degree of ease (or not) of assimilation to CB gang’s theme can be reflected by a few indicators such as the name of the CB interloculator, his/her clarity of insistent communication, and flow and frequency of the messaging peddlers. Reading and interpreting the FED yakkers is science of psychology and english language communication skill. That is why “they” have some alleged whisperes around like cox or kashkari or timiraos. (who, incidentally, are not perfect as messaging interpretters)

[SF Monedge]

The monthly average of US holdings of US Treasuries by the Federal Reserve have dropped from roughly $5.7 trillion to roughly $4.6 trillion from roughly a year on year basis.  In January 2020 the holdings were roughly $2.5 trillion.  There has also been significant decrease over time of foreign buyers of bonds, especially Japan and China, with Japan having been the largest foreign buyer for some time.  It is a risk management approach, with the bonds being a guaranteed asset.

 

If I were a CTA with a long term portfolio I would be keenly watching the 4.5% mark if/when that becomes present.  It would be a significant area to either shift agendas or load up depending on which side of the fence you are on.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – FACING KEY SUPPORT

If the market was concerned about an expected sharp drop in headline UK inflation tomorrow it is showing no signs of it.

You can see by the blue AT laffer lines pointing down that EURGBP is coming in range of key support at .8526.

Key support is at .8484-.8502 below it.

Note one reason why EURUSD has been trading soft and GBPUSD bid are flows in this cross.

[michael Calif]

for us, Option Profile remains LONG Yen futures from the Apr 29 BOTTOM

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – RETRACEMENT OVER?

As I have been noting, the failure to take oiut 156.98 = 61.8% of 160.16=151.85 keeps the retracement scenario alive

On the downside, 155.99 (suggests 156.00) would need to be firmly taken out to shift the risk to 155.24 with 155.00 looming below. So far it has just been nicked.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk.com paid for itself today reporting Waller comments vs. an illogical market reaction to them.

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets seemed to be reacting to Fed’s Waller’s comments that several more months of good inflation data is needed but the rest of his remarks were not hawkish.

Just an excuse to run stops?

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Resistance at 1.08800

Support at 1.08500 & 1.08250

Close of this Bar below 1.08550 would call for attack at supports and consequently run for 1.08150

Close above 1.08650 would negate that scenario and we’ll have test of 1.08800

 

[GVI Forex 2]

I have a serious question. When do Fed officials find time to work given they seem to be making speeches all the time?

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, Boston Fed chief Susan Collins and Richmond Fed boss Thomas Barkin all speak.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – GUESS WHERE THE LOW HAS BEEN?

i could repeat the Power of the “50” Level and how it impacts trading sentiment.

So, guess where the EURUSD low has been so far today – you are right if you said 1.0850

By itself, it is just one indicator but you can see that it changed the early mood in this currency but nothing to get excited about in a 24 pip range.

Power of the “50” Level

[GVI Forex 2]

With Gold taking a breather, the question asked in this article, which has stood the test of time ….

Is the Gold rally going to stop, and when?

Is the Gold rally going to stop, and when?

[GVI Forex 2]

The next key event is the Canadian CPI

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Partly due to the absence of top-tier economic news this week, world markets have found a relatively calm plateau with stocks near their latest records – and even fizzing metals prices cooling a touch.

Morning Bid: Calm markets hover near highs, metals step back

[GVI Forex 2]

It is easy to get lulled into complacency when volatility is low and ranges are narrow. However, this is the time to raise your alert as markets can move when you least expect it as I explain in the following:

Why Complacency Can Be a Trader’s Worst Enemy

Why Complacency Can Be a Trader’s Worst Enemy

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 1 HOUR CHART – TAKES CENTER STAGE

While XAUUSD takes a pause, attention has shifted to BTC which has moved back above 70000.

As I have said many times, I prefer to look at what I call pivotal; levels rather than fine-tune technical chart points.

In this regard, 70000 now sets the bias with the major record high (not seen on this chart) looming at 73389.

Using chart levels, BTC maintains a bid as long as it trades above 68887 but 70000 is clearly the level that will dictate whether it makes a run at the record high.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART – bID DESPITE LOOMING CPI

Logic would normally say GBP should be trading on the soft side ahead of what is forecast to be a sharp drop in CPI to be reported on Wednesday.

So far, this has not been the case but keep this in mind as the day winds on.

Meanwhile, GBPUSD is maintaining its bid while above 1.2696 with 1.2720 guarding key resistance at 1.2726. Above this level, there is a void until 1.28+

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – AMAZING TRADER (AT) TRADE ALERT

AT Alerts are built into The Amazing Trader charting algo. This is an alert playing out in real-time. (buy .66547/take profit .66711)

In this alert, with a 0.25% risK and a 1.25x reward, the target was just hit as I am typing.

Visit The Amazing Trader

[Mtl JP]

50th G7 summit June13-15 2024
Janet & G-7 against China

G7 Italy 2024 Foreign Ministers’ Statement on Addressing Global Challenges, Fostering Partnerships

8. China: do as we say or !

China is projected to be the world’s economic champion for the next five years, with its growth bigger than all the Group of Seven (G7) countries combined, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast. – Bloomberg

China will account for about 21 percent of the world’s new economic activity by 2029, compared to 20 percent from the entire G7, and almost double the nearly 12 percent for the U.S.

G7 countries slam Chinese firms’ support for Russia’s defence industry
Ministers say transfer of weapons components is enabling Russia to ‘reconstitute and revitalise’ its defence production. – Apr. 20

G7 to discuss global trade risks after US tariffs on China
Reuters
— U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled this week a bundle of steep tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports including electric vehicle (EV) …

Apr 19, 2024 — We express our strong concern about transfers to Russia from businesses in the People’s Republic of China of dual-use materials and weapons …

China Responds
Speaking to the media on Monday, Wang Wenbin, spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, rejected the statement accusing the leaders of having a “cold war” attitude towards China. Meanwhile, the Pro-Beijing press stressed China’s rejection of the so-called “Western narrative” and warned the G-7 not to act as arbiters of global order, and not to interfere in China’s internal affairs.

[Mtl JP]

janet is expected to attend G-7

China downsizes holdings of US treasury bonds to $775 billion: data

[Mtl JP]

lol , imagine … the cheek

–

House Republicans are working on a bill to sanction the ICC after its prosecutor sought arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS IS ONE OF MY MUST READ ARTICLES. WHY? BECAUSE I HAVE EXPERIENCED IT AND SWORE NEVER TO LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN.

It is often said that 95% of those trading lose money. While the actual percentage is not that high, it is a fact that the majority of forex traders lose. There may be many reasons for it but the one I see as a major one is what I call the Death Spiral.

How to Avoid the Forex Trading Death Spiral

How to Avoid the Forex Trading Death Spiral

[Author]

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