[GVI Forex 2]

Markets move when there us a surprise..

French election surprise risks a gap open in EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets move dhrn there us a surprise..

French election surprise risks a gap open in EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

France Election 2024 Live: Left and centre leading far right, pollsters sa

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) – France was on course for a hung parliament in Sunday’s election, with a leftist alliance unexpectedly taking the top spot ahead of the far right, in a major upset that was set to bar Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from running the government.

 

Summary
Polls showed the left was leading
Far-right leader Bardella conceded defeat
French voters turned out in large numbers
The counting has begun
Turnout at 5 p.m. was the highest afternoon level since 1981
Here’s our wrapup of the day so far

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

French Elections

When are the results?: Polling agencies will share projections at 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. EST), with a final national tally expected by early Monday

[GVI Forex 2]

100 and 200 moving averages (daily)

EURUSD closing above both (1.0790-93)

GBPUSD and AUDUSD solidly above both.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD WEEKLY CHART – Aiming Higher?

I had to go to the weekly to find the next key target, which is not until nearly .6900.

So, here is what would need to occur to out this level in play’

.6750 => 6800+> 6897

On the downside, expect support on dips while above .6713

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – Mind the gap!

One trigger for the EURUSD rally was that it bounced after filling last week’s opening gap.

Given the French elections and EURUSD closing around its high, there is a risk of another gap opening on the upside.

Scroll down for an update showing key levels on the upside.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY HOUR CHART – Is the top in?

For a case to be made that a USDJPY top is in for now it needs to stay below 161.40 and then make a firm break below 160.26 and then 160.00.

Note 160.26 is also a key level on a daily chart.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) – A recalibration of how the U.S. presidential election plays out is causing bond investors to bet yields stay higher for longer as November approaches.

Bond market re-focus on US elections throws wrench into 2024 rally hopefully

[michael Calif]

10yr futures expected to reconfirm Top since June 14 and turn lower (higher yields)    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

this week Gold futures should reconfirm continuing Top since Apr 12 and turn lower    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

BTC futures confirm tradeable low per 7/4 post    :gtwo3

[michael Calif]

Euro futures remain Long EURUSD despite any dips next week    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – LAST LINE OF DEFENSE

Nice comeback for gold, which needs to establish above 2387 to put the major 2450 high on the radar if it can then get back above 2400. In any cse, thoughts of the downside have been put to rest for now..

Expect support on dips while above 2340-50
 

[GVI Forex 2]

Once the dust settles on the French election attention will shift to the U.S. with CPI and Powell testifying/ See the full preview

Newsquawk Week Ahead 7th-12th July: Highlights include US CPI, Powell testimony, BoJ bond meeting, RBNZ and US earnings\

[Mtl JP]

EYE ON YELLEN
and the UK
–
According to NYT
“Rachel Reeves, Britain’s First Female Chancellor, Turns to Janet Yellen for Inspiration”
Rachel Reeves, who will oversee Britain’s budget, is expected to pursue an agenda influenced by Janet Yellen’s more activist approach to job-creation and investment in the United States.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 1 HOUR CHART – Is the bottom in?

A case can be made that BTC has bottom (note rising red lines) after failing to hold below 55K.

To confirm an end to the downtrend, 58741 would need to be broken

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART –  1.28 HOLDS THE KEY

Targets are clear at 1.2860 and 1.2893  IF 1.28 now becomes support following the firm break of 1.2740.

The next level beyond there is the 2023 high at 1,3140.

Note current patterm: 7 green daily candles in a row

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – 1.09-1.10?

Chart is clear. If 1.0852 is firmly broken and sustained, risk is for a run at targets in the 1.09-10 area.

On the downside, expect support on dips as long as it trades above 1.08.

Note French 2nd round vote is on Sunday and price action suggests a view (and relief) that the far right will not win an outright majority.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX WEEKLY CHART – ON THE DEFENIVE

You don’t need a USDX chart to tell you the dollar has turned defensive vs, currencies such as the EURUSD (57.6% of the index) and GBPUSD.

So, it pays to take a look at a USDX weekly chart and what are the targets on the downside. In this regard, the one that stands out is 103.93 (and 103.35 below it), exposed as long as the index trades below 106, greater risk if it stays below 105..

Note USDX is often seen as a proxy for the EURUSD, which makes up 57.6% of the index.

 

[Mtl JP]

my guess is FED rate cut , regardless of july, sept or … is a non-story. it is priced in

as DLR keeps going down … vs eur, vs chf …

[SF Monedge]

There is absolutely zero interest in Dow 4100 and 4200 puts.

[SF Monedge]

Dow futures point of control is 39655.  Edging up to it again.  Lets see what they do.  Calls have a little strength, puts no dice overall.

[michael Calif]

revision:   any USD futures low is temporary; not selling today’s EURUSD rally    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

I bought Bitcoin at 25k a while back.  Really would love to see 35k again, which if I recall accurately Bobby also pointed out as a good area.  The range of value I estimated a long time ago is 35k low end and 150k high end with a fair value of 65k.  Seems to be going that way.  All we need is a few more major blockchain frauds to get us to 35k.

[SF Monedge]

Sterling covered a 50 point spread (25 each direction) the instant the job numbers came out and was done in less than 2 seconds.  Major market entities really only care about longer term positioning.  That activity was pre-established with zero regard for the data itself, purely to run stops and collect on the other side of the jolt.

[SF Monedge]

Apparently the market was listening to me and Dow stopped dead at 393.50 one minute after I said that lol.

[SF Monedge]

Dow  might peak around 393.70 if it gets there today.  Transferable to Euro.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields at the lows, stocks up, fx paying attentuion, GBP still the outperformer (above 1.28)

[michael Calif]

USD futures will confirm a Low today    :gtwo3

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