[GVI Forex 2]

US500 DAILY CHART –  Caution>?

Seems to be more reasons for caution…

–       US elections in just over 4 weeks

–       – Middle East geopolitical risk

–       – Earnings season needs to see strong result to justify lofty valuations

With that said, stocks have been resilient but would need to take out the record high or risk at least some consolidation

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – 60K-65K

Having failed at both sides below/above 60k-65K, BTC is back into this range.

Current momentum is tilted up but expect more chop until there is a decisive move outside of 60-65K

[GVI Forex 2]

Week Ahead

Focus on stocks to set risk on/risk off tone

Geopolitical risk + higher yields after jobs data vs earnings reporting season and support for high valuations

Fed still seen cutting rates in Nov but by 25bps rather than the market fantasy of 50bps

NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) – A high-stakes corporate earnings season kicks into gear next week, with bullish investors hoping results will justify increasingly rich valuations in a U.S. stock market near record highs.

The case for strong U.S. economic growth got a boost on Friday, after labor market data came in far above expectations. The S&P 500 is up 20% year-to-date and stands near record highs despite recent tumult spurred by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Wall St Week Ahead Investors look to earnings to support record-high stock prices

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 H0UR CHART: TUG-OF-WAR

XAUUSD has traded within 2622-2685, the latter being the new record high, for 7 days in aa row.

Tug-of-war: Higher US yield vs. simmering Middle East geopolitical risk.

While this consolidation will not last, if you view 2600-2700 as a range, then 2650, currently having a magnetic pulll, will eventually dictate the next move.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights for October 7-11

Newsquawk.com Highlights include US CPI, RBNZ, Minutes from FOMC, ECB and RBA, Canada jobs, and UK GDP

[Mtl JP]

Larry Summers says Fed’s big rate cut was a ‘mistake’ after hot jobs report

https://nypost.com/2024/10/04/business/fed-made-mistake-slashing-rates-by-half-a-point-larry-summers/

[GVI Forex 2]

[SF Monedge]

If there is a drop off in risk appetite I see the 161.80 area for EurJpy as a viable zone for the market to reestablish some balance.

[SF Monedge]

Put to Call Ratio on Nasdaq stocks is only roughly 2/3 from last Friday’s low so it has more room.  Ratio on S&P is mid-way so has more room.  Prior ratio noted is for Dow stocks.

[SF Monedge]

The Put to Call Ratio in US stocks bounced off of relative lows from last Friday and so the odds are strong that there will be aggressive selling opening next week without something substantial to support it.  An isolated metric but one that holds water usually.  Euro likes happy stocks.  It does not like mean stocks.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks showing no concern over geopolitical risk.

[SF Monedge]

See orders coming in buy side yen futures worth paying attention to minutes ago.

[SF Monedge]

Went short UsdCad a bit ago.  Makes sense.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP target hit

AT Alerts  1
Brokers  0

[Mtl JP]

magic … MAGIC

EURO 1.0952

allegedly “50” has some magic attached to it

what is the magic here

mirror mirror on the wall which the next 50 pips will go ?
or is it horror horror .. which way ?!

[michael Calif]

repost:    the decline in USD futures since late June has ended; current rall will continue til at least Oct 23 per Law of Time    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

The AT Alert in EURGBP (short) is still active and well in the black but needs another 10 pips on the downside to hit its target. In any case. it caught the shift in directional risk… scroll down to see video posted below

[GVI Forex 2]

To keep it simple

EURUSD upside is limited a long as it trade below 1.10

USDJPY downside is limited if it can stay above 148 but scaled down interest as long a it is above 147.20

Geopolitical risks ahead of the weekend.

Monday Oct 7 is the one year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, so another reason to be cautious into the weekend.

[SF Monedge]

GVI – 2:13 …….. I was just about to post something to that effect.  The activity in UsdJpy is reflecting that with a return so far to what amounts to sideways activity in both spot and in futures and in options and forwards and other metrics.  Someone would have a difficult time convincing me we are headed into a rose garden this Friday.  Not to sound pessimistic.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks backing off after sugar highs following the US jobs report.

As noted earlier, once the dust settles after the US jobs report, there is the geopolitical risks over the weekend to consider.

[SF Monedge]

Dow 421.70 and 421.20 are pivotal areas if the Index is to hold the buy side intraday in my view.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FedWatch odds now 5/95 against a 50 bops hike so all but factored out for noiw.

[SF Monedge]

You had to expect UsdJpy to pull back around the open of US stocks. As long at 102.30 area holds positions should be safe with buy side positions for now but it is becoming a bit steep.

[SF Monedge]

Word to the wise: Any time there is economic data, the financial “experts” you listen to predominantly explain what the impact is and why based on their political leaning.  Today’s data was decent.  And so some are giddy as if inflation was never present after 2020 and was the devil prior to 2020.

Others are more sane.

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FEDWATCH: 12/88 ODDS AGAINST A 50 BPS fED RATE CUT IN NOV VS 30/70 AGAINST A CUT PRE-DATA

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDNZD DAILY CHART – BID AHEAD OF RBNZ

This cross has been bid ahead of next week; RBNZ meeting where a 50bps cut is expected.

Expect support on dips as long a it stays above 1.10.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD (last 1.0971)

IF BREAK OF 1.10 HOLDS THEN SUPPORT TARGETS ARE 1.0949 AND 1.0881

USDJPY 148.25 LAST

iF BREAK OF 147.20-25 HOLDS THEBN RESISTANCE TARGET IS 149.37… SEE IF 138 CAN BECOME SUPPORT

[GVI Forex 2]

Big upside beat in US NFP, lower jobless rate , higher earnings = hot report

[SF Monedge]

Neural conditions in GbpUsd are decidedly weighted toward the sell side right now.   If the pair is trying to find value higher than current market I think it should run into a bit of trouble.  3250 is a bit of a price magnet.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street has weathered an edgy start to the final quarter reasonably well this week, with the September employment report now an obvious final hurdle on Friday and firmer oil prices an irritant even as a three-day U.S. ports strike ends.

As has been the case for weeks, markets are trying to find the balance between signs of persistent growth but at a pace soft enough to sustain disinflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cut hopes.

Morning Bid: Jobs and oil dominate as ports strike ends

[Author]

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