[Anonymous]

January 12, 2025 at 10:59 pm
#17674

como// Thanks you reminded me about the non-native feral swine species lurking in Bangalore and on GV… small beady eyes, small ears… running a whore house there under guise of a ladies parlor…

need to keep gathering more inputs on that swine.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART – Sticky Zone

To keep it simple, 1,20 at risk while below 1,22

Why I call 1.20-1.22 a sticky zone isa the importance of 1.20 as a MAJOR psychological level and then a void to 1.18…1 ,2034 is the  weekly chart support but pivotal big figures, such as 1.20 is clearly more important.

Looking at a 4 hour chart, any bounce not that fails to reach 1.2321 (bot the risk at the moment) should be treated as a retracement.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my plaform as a HEATMAP — USD up vs all but JPY and CAD about unchanged, AUD lagging, GBP the underperformer, EURUSD breaks below 1.02

USD up but uneven (USD JPY an exception)
US 10 year yield Up (near 4.80 %)
US500 Down
Gold About unchanged
Crude oil UP
BTCUSD Down

[Anonymous]

If you look at previously posted ING’s analysis for fair value EURUSD

There the Euro would continue falling, except if

a) Dutch TTF Gas do fall into normal levels, that is well before the Pandemic

b) ECB starts to do real Monetary Policy Fisher style

______

Currently we see officials have opposite policies for both

That means We are going to see EURUSD printing sub par (only psychological) at some point rather soon.

Beside that the winter is getting harsh in EU and just the last pipeline via Turkey and Syria has remained open – which is the last hope for EU policy makers to hold It up somehow – But analysts say its naive’ this too as a policy, since for that pipeline to work fully one needs a stable Syria, which is not apparently in the interests of the big players there.

The more likely outcome for Syria will be that of Libya, of inter tribal clashes for power that will go on yet for many years to come.

[Mtl JP]

12:43 / gas prices just got a bit higher and longer.

ya on my toy gapped uP a qtr buck . BUT price little higher for little longer is not like it is not available at all

[Anonymous]

The European Energy Crisis / Bloomberg

COLUMN: Europe will have a natural gas problem this summer — exactly when, seasonally, demand drops and prices typically fall.

And that means the higher-for-longer outlook for regional gas prices just got a bit higher and longer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-06/the-energy-outlook-europe-s-summer-to-bring-worries-about-next-winter-s-gas

[Anonymous]

If You believe Cable can recover from here on….

You will change Your mind as You see this link from London

Short term 1.21 GBPUSD is Support

 

https://apnews.com/article/britain-no-trousers-tube-prank-stunt-underground-98d85a5c9ce8c5c576ced275cfd690d0

 

[Mtl JP]

SnP 500 heading into 1rst full week of 2025 (and yr)   the t-line is sma 100

[Mtl JP]

CRUDE OIL circa $78 now
jumping uP joyfully

as reported on Fr by NYT:
U.S. Imposes New Sanctions to Squeeze Russia’s Energy Sector … ”

US … that would ol coot janet via her treasury department

[GVI Forex 2]

Dear Members (if not a member join for free), we are happy to announce that Second Round of our Weekly Evaluations is STARTING at Monday – 13.01.2025.

Grand Prize is a Prop Trading Challenge Account – 15.000 $

Global-view.com Giveaway – Round 2

[Anonymous]

Rafe I don’t know… as I see It seems me kinda very Neolithic Stock Markets

 

[Anonymous]

British treasurer Rachel Reeves said Saturday that London was a “natural home” for Chinese finance during a visit to Beijing in the shadow of bond market turmoil back home. Reeves, whose formal title is chancellor of the exchequer, is the most senior British government official to visit China since then-prime minister Theresa May held talks with President Xi Jinping seven years ago. The trip comes as the yield on British government bonds reached a 17-year high this week,

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

• This week features significant economic updates across major economies. On Monday, India’s consumer price index for December is projected to rise 5.29% year-over-year, up from November’s 4.48%. Tuesday brings the U.S. producer price index (PPI) data, anticipated to increase 0.3% month-over-month in December, with a year-over-year rise of 3.3%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% on the month and 3.4% annually. Meanwhile, Eurozone industrial production for November is forecast to climb 0.5% month-over-month but decline 1.6% year-over-year.
• Midweek, the French annual consumer price index for December is expected to hold steady at 1.3% year-over-year, with a monthly increase of 0.2%, mirroring preliminary estimates. Similarly, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for December is forecast to rise 0.3% on the month and 2.9% annually, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% on the month and 3.3% on the year. Also, Japan’s producer inflation is anticipated to reach a 17-month high of 3.8% in December, driven by higher energy and farm produce costs.
• Later in the week, the Bank of Korea is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points amid domestic and global challenges. Finally, China’s GDP report on Friday is expected to show 1.7% quarterly growth and 5.0% annual growth, reflecting the country’s economic recovery trajectory.

Econiday

[Anonymous]

Talking about the 2007-2009 crisis… What brought this specific recession about was not only the pandemic but the fact that it could have been/can still be mitigated if they do renenge on their restrictions which they placed on the big banks UBS, Citi, Deutsche… around the time of the Rogue (Nigerian) trader scandal at UBS.

If the FED allows banks back into the markets to trade freely like in the 90’s and 2000’s then they are on the way to clearing away the national debt… As a matter of fact the FED can trade it’s way to financial freedom (tharpe), just short the dollar for the long term… lol!

como// The global models are still as effective now as they were then and even more so now… and much much more now… specs have pippettes or “ten thou” rather than what we had in those days of “one thou”.

[Anonymous]

US stock markets cannot justify their PB valuations which is why yields are flying like Bajanero fish… lol! I just created a new species of fish!!! hehe!

[Anonymous]

Also of note this upcoming week is France

 

France can’t stray far from 5% deficit – central bank head

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/france-cant-stray-far-5-deficit-central-bank-head-2025-01-08/

 

[Anonymous]

Winston Churchill is said to have quipped: “I only believe in statistics that I have doctored myself”. Reports in the media support this skeptical view of official statistics

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000259

[Anonymous]

Now an innovative study tested statistical data to reveal which countries have an incentive to falsify their economic figures.

[Anonymous]

The Bank of Japan is likely to revise upward its forecasts for fiscal 2024 and 2025 for core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food and energy prices, at its monetary policy meeting this month. The bank plans to wait until the very last moment to decide whether to raise interest rates, according to interviews with multiple people familiar with the matter.

　　At the meeting to be held on the 23rd and 24th, the outlook for the economy and prices (Outlook Report) will be discussed and the latest forecasts will be presented. According to sources, the main reason for the increase in the core-core CPI outlook is the upward trend in food prices, especially rice. The weakening of the yen and the rise in crude oil prices will also be factors in pushing up the outlook. The trend of passing on wage costs to prices is also strengthening as expected.

After the news was released, yen-buying became dominant in the foreign exchange market, and the yen temporarily rose to 157.76 yen against the dollar. Before the news was released, the yen was trading at the 158.30 yen range.

The Bank of Japan has traditionally presented its price outlook in its Outlook Report using core CPI, but in light of rising geopolitical risks and fluctuations in energy prices amid the COVID-19 pandemic, it has begun publishing core-core CPI as a reference since 2022 in order to better capture fundamental price movements.

　　Regarding core CPI, the government’s electricity and gas fee burden reduction measures will be resumed in January-March next year, which will cause a downward swing in FY2024 and an upward swing in FY2025 as a reaction <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

[Mtl JP]

Writes Yahoo’s Josh Schafer · Reporter

…”The biggest concern driving markets is that inflation doesn’t continue its downward trend toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Two key readings will greet investors in the week ahead on that front. Tuesday will bring a reading on wholesale inflation before the more widely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set for release on Wednesday morning.

Updates on retail sales, inflation expectations, and housing activity are also on the schedule.” …

[Mtl JP]

Who, pray tell, cares ?

UPI
President Joe Biden to give final foreign policy speech on Monday

[Mtl JP]

Perrie 6:53 / some recent headlines:
More than 60 German universities and research institutions leave X,
UK universities join retreat from Elon Musk’s X, citing misinformation on platform;
German government may yet quit X over algorithms, spokesperson says

there is some subtlety in those headlines

[Mtl JP]

Theme: Lets screw with markets’ heads
–
WSJ – Trump’s New Economist Makes the Case for 20% Tariffs
Stephen Miran, nominated to advise Trump, has suggested high tariffs could be the price allies pay for U.S.’s defense umbrella
By Greg Ip – Jan. 12, 2025 5:00 am ET

[Mtl JP]

wsj
A Bond Selloff Is Rocking the World. You Might Want to Take the Other Side.
A rare ‘bear steepening’ trade is pressuring governments and worrying investors
By Jon Sindreu, Updated Jan. 12, 2025 12:00 am ET

Personally I am not exactly against it as a trade idea. Others may have different view.

[Mtl JP]

8 days to inauguration
10-yr 4.763%

the lingering mood:
“Dow tumbles nearly 700 points Friday as strong jobs report casts doubt over Fed’s rate-cut path” – cnbc

[Anonymous]

Economic and geopolitical repercussions

Germany’s high electricity prices are leading to the relocation of its industry, as companies look for sites where energy costs are more affordable. How can you stay viable when you pay three times more for electricity than your competitors? (Natural gas prices are even worse: five times more expensive in Europe than in the USA.)

Whole swathes of Germany’s proud industry are collapsing. We only remember the big names — VW, BASF, Mercedes-Benz — but every big company that disappears or downsizes takes with it a myriad of small and medium-sized enterprises that end up collapsing along with it. Energy-intensive sectors such as metallurgy and chemicals are particularly hard hit.

Finally, Germany’s increased dependence on its neighbors for energy supplies has been creating tensions in Europe. High electricity prices in Germany are being passed on to neighboring countries, making electricity unaffordable there and generating growing frustration.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21244/europe-germany-renewable-energy

 

[Anonymous]

The main contribution to renewable energy has comes from wind power, at 31% of total production, followed by solar power at 12%, biomass at 8%, and other renewable sources such as hydroelectricity for the remaining 3.4%. In 2024, renewable energy accounted for almost 60% of German electricity production in the first half of the year. This production level, however, is smoothed out over a given period and does not reflect moments of crisis such as the “Dunkelflaute.”

Dunkelflaute

Literally “flat, dark calm,” Dunkelflaute is characterized by a simultaneous lack of wind and sun in winter, when demand for electricity in Germany is at its highest.

 

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21244/europe-germany-renewable-energy

[Anonymous]

Angela Merkel Wants Her Memoir to Save Her Legacy. It’s Backfiring.

In her book, the former German chancellor stubbornly defends decisions that have become increasingly unpopular, alienating even some of her allies

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/angela-merkel-wants-her-memoir-to-save-her-legacy-its-backfiring-509b30c5

[Anonymous]

February live cattle futures hit 198.775 cents/lb, the highest since Sept 2023, with other contracts at record highs

Drought, high grain costs and rising rates have shrunk herds as many US farmers cut back or exit the business entirely

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: 13-17th January 2025

Highlights include US CPI & Retail Sales, China Activity & Trade Data, UK CPI, GDP & Retail Sales, Aussie jobs, ECB Minutes

[Author]

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