[GVI Forex 2]

Economists advise the trade policy could force inflation higher and the US GDP to drop 2.3%. Economists expect the Chinese GDP to also fall 2.3%, the EU by 1.1% and the UK by 0.2%.

[GVI Forex 2]

A friend described trading today like a video game... one reason is there are no stops to run while within today’s wide ranges. .

[Mtl JP]

ok .. chickens likely gaming 1.0960/50 before jerome

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump sticking to his rhetoric

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

GVI 12:35 and the trade is: ____
tia

[GVI Forex 2]

US jobs

NFP big beat but
Downward revision prior month
Unemployment rate rises

CDA jobs big miss on downside

see our Economic Data Calendar

[Mtl JP]

experts’ expectation way way off

228 vs 140 exp’d

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up is the March jobs report… a weaker report is expected… see our Economic Data Calendar

[Mtl JP]

8:30 NFP
–
gaming this puppy today is likely to be, at most, wet noodle trade
given market’s current sentiment

unless NFP comes in significantly weaker than current 140K expectation

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1055-ish

puppy is inside 1.0950 and 1.11 range
with, currently, somewhere around cautious to bullish sentiment

[Mtl JP]

some cute things on deck this morning:
–
8:30 US NFP
11:25 Jerome Powell on (his?) Economic Outlook

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1075-ish

what is the plan for 1.11 – IF seen ?

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 3.869% -0.186

atm lower yield works against the dollar

[Mtl JP]

re china’s 34% tariff: Trump needs to squish Xi’s head

week-end could be long

[Mtl JP]

Reuters 9mins ago:

Tariffs latest: China says it will impose additional 34% tariffs on all US goods
China announced a slew of tariffs and restrictions against U.S. goods as a countermeasure to Trump’s duties. U.S stock futures fell sharply after the move.

[GVI Forex 2]

Wake up White House, you have a panic on your hands

US500 15 MINUTE  CHART

 

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY – Safe haven

Remains highly correlated with risk mood as JPY acts as a safe haven.

146.50 remains the key level on top…below it keeps 145.00-20 and potentially below on the radar

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD 4h – Gold

Resistances: 3100.00, 3120.00 & 3150.00

Supports: 3075.00, 3050.00 & 3025.00

For today, in order to continue up Gold has to break above 3120.00

Break below 3075.00 would delay that move , with a chance to test 3050.00

This hole Uptrend is based on trendline support at 3025.00

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows..

… the dollar trading firmer, more than reversing=early losses… biggest losers are the AUD and NZD

No news other than more irsk off and a more typical reaction (USD up) after yesterday’s wave of position liquidations… EURUSD  focus still on 1.10 while above 1.0950.

US yields down… 10 year tests sub 4.0%

Stocks down

Gold hanging around 3100 (currently just below it)

Looking ahead, U.S. jobs report (weaker reading expected) and a speech by Fed Chair Powell on the economic outlook at 11:25 EDT (16:25 GMT)

 

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

EUR went Up about 60 pips from open and failed.

Now all eyes are on 1.09500 ( but take this really wide – with this kind of situation levels are kind of stretchy )

Supports: 1.09500, 1.09250 & 1.08850

Resistances: 1.10150, 1.10550 & 1.11100

Unless this turns into full blown downtrend, current range is within 1.08850 & 1.12700

[Mtl JP]

Warren Buffet’s magnanimity:
“‘Keep your head’: Warren Buffett suggests reading a 19th century poem when stocks fall” – via cnbc
that would likely be Rudyard Kipling’s 1895 poem “If”

hahaha … keep your head lol

[Mtl JP]

Japan traders continue to hammer their Nikkei sofar some -2.8% , and repeat of Th

also dumping the dollar and buying and bringing home their yens (145.70 atm)

[Mtl JP]

Suggestion for trade
“Friday’s jobs report threatens to be a losing proposition for markets” – gated piece on CNBC

[Mtl JP]

Disturbing Question on CNBC:

“Behind the market rout: Was there panic selling that typically precedes a bottom?”

wouldn’t you – and every uncle – like to know, eh ?

[Mtl JP]

Does President Trump need Jerome Powell / Fed Reserve ?
US 10-yr yield: 3.985% at 11:30 PM EDT
–
the so-called scardycats who read falling bond yields as presentiment of gearing down of economy into recession should also gear up for stocks to puke deeper

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Watching President Trump unveil the reciprocal tariff details my initial reaction was …, Holy crap! It felt like a nuclear bomb hit the global trading order…

What is the Trump reciprocal tariffs game plan?

[Mtl JP]

From some clowns at WSJ:
–
“Trump’s Tariffs Were Supposed to Boost the Dollar. Why the Opposite Happened.
Worries that long-term U.S. growth will fade could matter more for the currency than the mechanical impact of tariffs” – By Jon Sindreu

‘I Should Have Sold More’: Wall Street Reels as Trump’s Plan Sinks Markets
The president’s sweeping tariffs proved far more severe than investors predicted
By Gregory Zuckerman, Krystal Hur and Gunjan Banerji”
April 3, 2025 4:48 pm ET

“One CIO’s Advice During Tariff Selloff: ‘Turn Off the TV and Read a Book’
By Karen Langley, Reporter April 3, 2025 4:42-ish pm ET

I should … One CIO’s Advice …- published AFTER TSHTF
hahahaha, I like , I like, I like

[Mtl JP]

Stocks performance the day after start of liberation:
DJIA -3.98%
Nasdaq Comp -5.97
SNP 500 -4.84
Qtn to President Trump: Are you worried about the markets ?
Pres Trump: No. Everything is fine. Markets will come back up.

The Federal Reserve is not likely to rescue markets and economy from tariff turmoil anytime soon – Jeff Cox

Should the president hold fast to his tougher-than-expected trade policy, there’s a material risk of at least near-term costs. …/..

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Daily

Gold reached new high today and instantly lost over 110 pips, just to bounce back up again.

Close tonight above 3110.00 would be Bullish.

Supports: 3110.00, 3090.00 & 3065.00

Resistances: 3135.00, 3150.00 & 3170.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports: 1.10150, 1.09850 & 1.09500

Resistances: 1.10400, 1.10850 & 1.11250

The way it is closing tonight indicates more Up tomorrow

If above today’s high targets 1.12650

[Author]

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