[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold

Resistances: 2920.00, 2930.00 & 2960.00

Supports: 2895.00, 2880.00 & 2830.00

Gold tried for 5 days to go back above the previous support trendline – now Resistance, but failed.

Now we should see test of Supports – Ideally it should have a nice correction all the way to 2765.00, but 2830.00 would do the job as well…

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR  – TARIFF CLOUD

CAD has been the underperformer today, weaker not just vs the USD but vs the JPY as well

Political vacuum to deal with the tariff cloud hanging over Canada  is seen on this cart that would need toi regain 1.4435-50 to put the key 1.56+ area on plat again.

Keeps a bid as long as it holds 1.4350-55.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports: 1.08450, 1.08300 & 1.08200

Resistance: 1.08750, 1.08900 & 1.09650

Next 4h Bar is crucial for the direction – if it manages to go above 1.08900 and stay above it, EUR will continue Up.

In such a case target is in 1.10600 area.

If not, we should be watching everything between 1.05600 & 1.06400 down there.

 

[ST London]

UsdJpy 147 is crucial

Patience

If it bounces see what happens at 147.25 for a failure would give immediate straight line to 146.25 then remaining below 147 after that would give something like 146.86

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD brief black hole reaction to German news

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

EURUSS 15 MINUTE CHART — Headline risk

News Algo headline reaction then back to square one (1.0850)

[GVI Forex 2]

This headline sums up the current market

Trump chaos pushes central banks into shadows

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART –  DOWNTREND

Solid downtrend that shows a void on the downside.

This makes the most recent low (146.92) the closest support with a void until 145.90 and 141.64.

Another way to look at it is 146.50 blocks exposing 145.00.

Only back above 148 would deflect the risk

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –  Remains in a range

Remains in a tight 2890-2930 range, the upper end has 4 touches..

Above 2930 exposes 2945 and the 2956 record high.

Below 2790 and 2859 expose the 2832 low again.

Using the 2832-2930 range, midpoint is 2881 but 2900 seems to be setting the tone.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD bounce just now from above 1.08 would need a solid 1.0850+ to shift the focus away from 1.08 and back to the 1.0888 high.

Bounce in EURJPY just now seemed to coincide with a modest bounce in US stocks off the lows.

In the current environment, look for stock market bounces to lack follow through, for exampole, as long as US500 stays below 5800

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP

Mixed start to the week

EURUSD backing off towards (but still above) 1.08.… USDJPY weaker ==> EURJPY weaker (GBPJPY as well) asa JPY gets safe haven flows.

AUDUSD, NZDUSD a touch firmer, USDCAD about unchanged

Tariffs, trade war risk, recession talk weighing on US equities

The Savvy Trader was ahead of the curve when he wrote this article’

Is the U.S. headed for a recession by the Savvy Trader?

Light calendar so another headline watching day after Trump weekend comments (scroll below) added to a risk off mood

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD the big mover (down 6%) and has given back the Trump strategic reserve spike,

[GVI Forex 2]

Early call on US stocks : lower

Recession fears: President Trump declined on Sunday to rule out the possibility that his economic policies, including aggressive tariffs against America’s trade partners, would cause a recession. In an interview aired on Fox News, Mr. Trump also told Maria Bartiromo, the host of “Sunday Morning Futures,” that he was considering increasing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. When asked if he was expecting a recession this year, Mr. Trump responded that “I hate to predict things like that” and that there would be “a period of transition,” but that eventually “it should be great for us.” Read more ›… NYT

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Early call on US stocks : lower

Recession fears: President Trump declined on Sunday to rule out the possibility that his economic policies, including aggressive tariffs against America’s trade partners, would cause a recession. In an interview aired on Fox News, Mr. Trump also told Maria Bartiromo, the host of “Sunday Morning Futures,” that he was considering increasing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. When asked if he was expecting a recession this year, Mr. Trump responded that “I hate to predict things like that” and that there would be “a period of transition,” but that eventually “it should be great for us.” Read more ›… NYT

 

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

This week’s economic outlook focuses on key global trends. In Asia, China may introduce stimulus measures following its National People’s Congress, as policymakers shift to a “moderately loose” monetary stance. Meanwhile, India and Australia monitor inflation and confidence data for signs of economic shifts. In Europe, Germany’s struggling manufacturing sector remains a concern, though potential defense spending increases could offer future support. The Eurozone continues battling weak industrial output. In the U.S., recession risks are rising as job growth slows, inflation remains high, and consumer sentiment declines. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady as uncertainty looms.

 

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

U.S. moved clocks ahead one hour this weekend for daylight savings time.

Europe moves its clocks on March 30.

[GVI Forex 2]

Commerce Secy Lutnick said 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will go into effect on Wednesday

[Anonymous]

EURUSD:- Currently at 1.0834… Target @ 1.1036… I wrote this here many weeks ago…

Whoever went long on my calls has already made a lotsa money already. And I will make many more forecasts in coming times… 🙂

 

GL GT

[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highllights 10-14th March 2025

Highlights include US CPI, UoM, BoC, UK GDP and Norwegian CPI

[GVI Forex 2]

Hi JP, Trump is not yet blinking on tariffs so if the reaction changes, it is not because it is seen asa positive.

[Mtl JP]

so continuation of same game plays by President Trump BUT different reaction by player collective would mean , in essence, instead of percieving uncertainty, embracing his actions as positive ?

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, it is not the news but how markets react make it a new ball game.

[Mtl JP]

EURO Friday march 7th close: 1.0833/34

[Mtl JP]

miaw !
–
Trump threatens new tariffs on Canada, including 250% tax on dairy
By David Goldman, CNN, Updated 4:41 PM EST, Fri March 7, 2025

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0835 (ten mins before market close)
–
as long as puppy closes the week above 1.0800 and more importantly
above 1.0770/65

odds will favour puppy running further North

[Mtl JP]

GVI 8:11 “New ball game next week.”
–
What “new” in the game do you expect to see about ?
– president trump
— tariffs and their clarity
— stock market
—- bond market
—– the dollar
– ______________

tia !

[GVI Forex 2]

Like a broken record…usdjpy follows stocks… commodity currenies bounced on offsets

New ball game next week.

[Mtl JP]

so powell gives himself high score marks

Powell says Fed is awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before making next move on rates

“Policy is not on a preset course,” he said. “Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.”

nad never mind that just recently he politely tried to not get into discussing the potential of eventual stagflation

[GVI Forex 2]

Text of Fed Powell’s speech

He didn’t sound any alarms over the economy.

Q&A to follow

[GVI Forex 2]

Why Powell’s speech is important as it is the last Fedspeak before the blackout period that begins Saturday ahead of the March 19 FOMC meeting.

[Author]

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