[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –  In limbo

Chart still showing a downside risk that needs to take out 3038 to break the momentum… but only above 3047 would put the record 3057 high in play again

On the other side, the quick bounce Friday from 3000 suggests consolidation unless this level is taken out.

Range: 2999/3013 – 3038/3047/3057

For those that missed it, the following came out Friday and may have been a trigger for the XAUUSD sell off.

Robert “Bo” Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, said that if the move to sell some of the gold in Fort Knox to buy Bitcoin remained budget-neutral, it could be considered.

 

 

[Topnine]

This is 10am Nigerian time and GOLD (XAU/USD) is at price 3028.97 and from my understanding of Price Action theory this is a set buy bias. Market is goung on a buy to around price range of 3032.69. It is going to be a slow climb up.

Market dropped to a low at price 3020.71 which is the lowest point it got to after market opeend early this morning. This buy (Bullish) movement might not continue for long. Let us take a few pips. A word is enough for the wise. Let’s use tight TP/SL and not risk more than 1-5% of our capital. A word is enough for the wise.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

… week starting out in a risk on mood after Trump’s reciprocal tariff comments… As I have noted, while markets may react to the latest headline actions speak louder than words (April 2 is the reciprocal tariff day).

… the dollar is trading weaker but off earlier lows… exception is USDJPY but remains below 150

EURUSD came close but paused below 1.0860… See What is the trend in Forex Majors for coming week

EZ composite PMIs mixed (manufacturung up a touch (but below 50), Services down a touch (but above 50)… S

[Jay USA]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The week of March 24 brings a flood of critical economic indicators, with global flash PMIs offering early insight into how new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are affecting European exporters. Germany, the EU’s top metals exporter, could see further pressure in its manufacturing readings. In the U.S., housing data may reflect a rebound from weather-related slowdowns, while regional Fed surveys and PCE inflation numbers provide updates on manufacturing health and price pressures. In Asia-Pacific, inflation figures from Australia and Japan will guide monetary policy, especially as core price trends remain under close scrutiny.

Econoday

[Topnine]

A good day, the focus is on USD/CAD, the Market opened at price 1.43574. it has gone on a steady decline ever since and is currently at price 1.43369. As a price action pro, i see cad going to reclaim its selling bias to the price range of 1.43223, at least before returning upwards.

Price has hit a rock bottom low at price 1.43247 and has started a slow upward movement. So we are expecting a few pips downwards to secure profits. Don’t get greedy. Setting a tight TP/SL is essential. A word is enough for the wise.

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk on start on this headline news

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0830-ish suddenly
testing R and …. failing

[Mtl JP]

1:18 Bobby / Thank you for the Trend in Forex Majors write-ups

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD

Daily Supports: 1.28850, 1.28500 & 1.28050

Daily Resistances: 1.29300, 1.29700 & 1.30100

Weekly Supports: 1.28850, 1.28500, 1.27750 & 1.26600

Weekly Resistances: 1.30150, 1.30450 & 1.30800

Read more

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

Daily Supports: 1.07950, 1.07650 & 1.06300

Daily Resistances: 1.08300, 1.08600, 1.08900 & 1.09200

Weekly Supports: 1.07950, 1.07300 & 1.06650

Weekly Resistances: 1.09550, 1.10250 & 1.11700

Read more….

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 24th-28th March 2025Newsquawk Week Ahead

Highlights include US PCE, Global PMIs, UK CPI and Spring
Statement, Australian & Tokyo CPI, BoJ SoO

[GVI Forex 2]

I posted this earlier and what was a classic AT setup once again played out to perfection

You can get a free ($!) AT trial as aa member benefit for joining GTA (free)

XAUUSD 4 HOUR –  What is The Amazing Trader (AT) saying

Posted earlier

AT Directional Indicator (2 blue lines off the high) indicating a downside risk BUT only a move through 3022 would suggest anything more than consolidation.

Below 3022 lies 3000-05

Above 3047 would put the record 3057 high in play again.

[Mtl JP]

really …

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee sees rate cuts depending on inflation progress
Goolsbee told CNBC that he’s been hearing more concerns from businesses in his region about the impact of tariffs.

By Jeff Cox

[Alex Lugano]

Sometimes It’s Good to Be Passive
I know that most traders prefer to be in constant touch with the market from fear not to lose an opportunity to take a trade.

But in reality that approach produces some counter results at the end:

–          When your brain becomes overwhelmed by data and action, your capability to trade reasonably is shrinking.

–          Running after every single trade creates a fog in front of your eyes

–          You are starting to see situations that are either not present at all or are opposite of what you think

–          You start to hoard stop losses and a killing spree of your margin is inevitable.

–          Suddenly you don’t know anything and market ( and the whole world ) are against you

So take a break from time to time

Especially if your trades are not going as you expected

–          Let it be for awhile

–          Pull back and relax

–          Once fog is gone, backtrack all your trades that went wrong and find why it happened

–          Once you figure it out, you can go back to fight

[Alex Lugano]

Barclays Weekly Insights

From uncertainty to multi-shock

As the US administration seems determined to impose high tariffs and ‘detox’ the domestic economy, US growth is set to slow sharply, with global spillovers. Effects from higher European investment will lag but could be significant. We expect the Fed, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold.
The Trump administration has expressed more tolerance for adverse economic fallout from tariffs than we had thought. We adjust our assumptions by incorporating softer trajectories for activity and a bigger upsurge in inflation in the US.
We lower our euro area growth forecast for 2025 as activity is set to decelerate further given US tariffs on EA exports. We still see the ECB’s depo rate reaching 1.5% by year-end.
In the UK, a weaker growth outlook, tariff uncertainty, and an easing labour market but rising inflation expectations provide a complicated backdrop to the MPC meeting.
We expect the Bank of Japan to keep its “on track” assessment of growth and inflation, but take time to gauge the effect of its January rate hike as well as tariffs and wages.
China data suggest risk of prolonged deflationary pressures this year, while companies are holding back from hiring. US trade risks are two-sided.
US tariffs on steel and aluminium are unlikely to have a material economic effect on Emerging Asia, but more severe tariffs could slow the export up cycle.
Positive comments on a Ukraine ceasefire have driven market sentiment in CEE.
Labour indicators report healthy momentum in most of Latin America. However, this does not necessarily reflect economic strength.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

1.08600 proved to be impenetrable and afterwards Eur broke below channel trendline.

If it closes in next 10 min around here – 1.08200 or lower, we are going to have Pattern signal for sell.

What I don’t like about it is a fact that this is already a prolonged correction and the law we saw is so called extended move – so carefully

Use stop – I would place it just above 1.08250 , but that’s just me – don’t like big stops and my approach is that if market doesn’t go my direction – voila…I am out.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, dead cat bounce unless it gets back abiove 1.0814-20

Bulls need a close abo ve 1.0805

See if a bounce in stocks cools the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

More uncertainty than certainty but glimmer of flexitibility

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[Mtl JP]

here u go 1.0799 !

and bouncing uP again

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, below 1.0850 keeps risk on the downside.

With stops more likely on the down rather than the upsxide, dependent of 1.0815 hokding to prevent 1.0800-05 coming on the radar.

A close below 1.0805 would create an outside day key reversasl.

Your 1.0820 level is acting like a pivot.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0830/20

degenerates’ battleground atm
just as stock appear to try for a new washout BUT, in my book, around 1% is piddly stuff
unless one conciders weekly where some may be sqeualing and others are rubbing hands

[Mtl JP]

FED gang member blablablah
–
Fed’s Williams says monetary policy in right place amid notable uncertainty
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy is in the right place at this time, given how the economy is performing in an environment where the outlook is quite uncertain. “There is certain uncertainty in monetary policy” and “the …

Fed’s Williams: ‘Uncertainty is high’ amid shifting US economic policies
New York Federal Reserve president John Williams on Friday stressed the uncertainty of the US economic outlook, saying he expects lower growth

hia “personal opinion” for your concideration
certain uncertainty hahaha. some are just not shakesperaen wordsmiths

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.60
–
overall USD is getting some love from market, BUT not enuff to be charging out of call it consolidation zone

another overall is that bonds too are more mixed that lop-sided.

jerome tried to bamboozle players with some blablah about stagflation …

and so my so-far instinct observation is that with CB yikyakings about rates and ploicies over, players are and will put focus on any “clarifications” about April 2nd tariffications dynamics.

still overall in my reading of market sentiment about the dollar is that there retisence to rush into it, which by extention means that a rally in the dollar should have limited octane. in other words dlrx puppy will be needing to rush through 104 decisively and hold the level.

euro 1.0832 as I type.
I am biased down on this one. I maintain it needs to test decisively 108.20 Sup failure of which should open up approx 100 southerly pips and towards the 200dma

.
.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – ger30

And technical’s won – at least for today.

Supports: 22.650, 22.400

Resistances: 22.955, 23.225 & 23.475

Intraday – down

We have now a clear double Top – so possibility for a greater correction is now probable.

[GVI Forex 2]

Starting out here like it is TGIF….

EURUSD 1.0850 clearly pivotal in setting the tonr… last at 1.0831

Commidity currencies down… JPY up…reflects a risk off tone

So far a no market moving news day

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk off: Stocks slipping in early US trade

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year yield dips.. some FX correlation… EURUSD  1.0860 so far holding (high 1.0861)… USDJPY back below 149]

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports: 1.08250, 1.07650

Resistances: 1.08450, 1.08600

Close of this bar above 1.08400 would indicate a possibility for change of trend on 4h

However, before it goes above 1.08600 EUR can continue downwards.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures lower whilst USD gains ahead of Trump-Hegseth meeting

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European indices hold a negative bias, airliners on the backfoot with Heathrow closed; US futures are also lower.

USD is broadly firmer vs. peers with macro newsflow on the light side, but ahead of Trump-Hegseth meeting at 15:00GMT.

Gilts underperform on more unfavourable developments for Reeves, Bunds bid.

TTF ignites on Sudzha damage,

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR –  What is The Amazing Trader (AT) saying

AT Directional Indicator (2 blue lines off the high) indicating a downside risk BUT only a move through 3022 would suggest anything more than consolidation.

Below 3022 lies 3000-05

Above 3047 would put the record 3057 high in play again.

 

[Author]

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