[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Initial short term downtrend broken.

Supports: 1.03850, 1.03650 & 1.03350

Resistances: 1.04300, 1.04500 & 1.04700

I would easily declare start of the new uptrend if EUR broke above 1.04450 – but it didn’t.

So we need a confirmation tomorrow – if it happens at all.

[Anonymous]

I swear I had no idea Modi’s visiting the USA… I’ve put myself on a self-imposed media blackout esp when it comes to Indian media… the things they publish are just too darn bizzare and outright vulgarity!! I heard today from an acquaintance that some youtuber is under the scanner for asking someone an offensive question about the privacy of parents and the whole of India is up in arms about that matter.

[Anonymous]

Modi’s visiting the USA? When did that happen??

[Anonymous]

I came across a headline yesterday in which the USA is considering a sovereign wealth fund,… well call me late… but just the other day I was considering saying they should have a sovereign wealth fund along the likes of other countries such as Norway and my dear Saudi Arabia etc… But then in order to start that fund the USA wants to offload gold which they purchased at 42 bucks each. Ditching an asset which gives capital appreciation, and superior returns above inflation which stocks have not been able to give. Gold existed ever since the beginning of time even centuries before the USA was even discovered, as a matter of fact that is why they were discovered, it was because of an explorer’s search for Gold and Spices… Trump wants to bail out tiktok and do crypto by dumping money into Moore’s law? He should be negotiating treaties to buy as much gold as can be produced in the world for the next 50 years.

If the FED invests in bond yields then that would fill the void left behind when USAID was dismantled. Bonds are indirect investments into the welfare systems of countries… They got some great non-calleable bond deals going on somewhere in the world. And last I heard on 1 year paper was 6.55%+.

Gold and Bond’s are the only 2 bets for that kind of money.,.. and no other countries know the world like the United States does. What was all that spying done for?

Stock investments are limited by the amount of capital which can be invested in companies. under performance of stocks causes capital erosion which is counter intuitive. Companies won’t last as long as Physical Gold and the countries obviously. eg. India has been around for 5000+ years and which company in the world has been doing business for even 10% of that time?. Additionally, in how many companies in the world can an investor buy 75 billion dollars worth of stock for a 5% stake and be confident that the money is safe,… only maybe 3 or 4 companies if that many.

[GVI Forex 2]

Hedline whipsaq continues… out a little while ago and will have everyone glued to the TV and headlines on Thursday.

It also cyt short the EURUSDF rally that paused just below a key AT level at 1.9432 (high 1.0430, lasr 1.0389)

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD ONE HOUR CHART –  Retracement contained for now

Pause above the 2852 level cited earlier (low 2863) contained the retracement but would need to regain 2898_ to put the 2942 and talk of 3000 back on the table.

So far XAUUSD has not suffered from hopes of easing geopolitical tensions but bears watching.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

There has been enoiugh news today to last a week. In the end, it is the reaction that counts.

This came out earlier but we need to hear it from Trump.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[Mtl JP]

end when – next week, month, sometime in 2026 ?

[Jay Ny]

Trump says he and Putin agreed to start negotiations to end Ukraine war: ‘It must end’

[Jay Ny]

Another headline… this one raised hope that a Trump-Putin call will lead to an escalation end to the Russia-Ukraine war

EURUSD pops above 1.04. stocks bounce

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

This break above 22.000 and momentum to not only hold it above, but to push higher is a very good sign for DAX.

It should be able to reach somewhere between 22.500 & 22.800 , and then any correction can be controlled.

So as far as it moves from 22K – better on the long run.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GME – GameStop Corporation

Yes Jinx it I did 😀

24.60 first and then 23.50 would be technically perfect.

Overall Target should be in 18.00 area now.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h Update

EUR bounced sharply and reached 1.03800 once again.

Now the question is how is it going to Close this bar in about hour and half.

Options:

–          Close above 1.03600 – Bullish – it would go way above 1.03800 and change the Daily direction to Up

–          Close below 1.03500 – Bearish – Another leg down testing at least 1.02900

Later tonight I’ll reassess the situation and post another update

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 30 MINUTE CHART – MIND THE GAP

Held above 5987 bottom of the range but upside is limited while below the top of the post-CPI gap.

[GVI Forex 2]

So much for that move off a nothing burger headline… 10-year still above 4.65%… EURUSD needs to hold 1.0350-54 or risk turns back to the low… USDJPY staying bid

[GVI Forex 2]

News trading algos reacting to keyword phrases and any hint of a way out of a  tariff trade war.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

USD spikes down on these tariff related comments, suggests no definitive announcement today.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year at 4,651%… fx paying notice

There is a10-year bond auction today.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

2nd day of testimony by Powell coming up, this time to the House Banking Committee.

Typically it is a repeat of the prior day but this time expect questionx about today’s CPI report.

[GVI Forex 2]

Keeping an eye on bond yields as others will be doiing the same…it looks like US 10 yr 4.65% is acting as resistance… EURUSD would need to regain 1.0354 to be back in the overngiht range.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

EUR reached my target at 1.03800 and got rejected sharply.

For this move to continue, it has to go below 1.03100 in next 4h.

Resistances: 1.03400, 1.03600 & 1.03800

Supports: 1.03100, 1.02900 & 1.02800

[GVI Forex 2]

10 year yield spikes higher after CPI… USD up, stocks down, XAUUSD down

[GVI Forex 2]

Hotter CPI, both headline and core… details in our Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

No reaction to this but is setting up a potential battle with the Fed and a lame duck Powell.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD held test of the 1.0385 level cited earlier…(where it was trading when reciprocal tariffs news hit last Friday)

Key levels are above 1.04… 1.0410 and 1.0432

Minor support 1.0364

1.0350-55 is pvotal on the downside

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWsQUAWK US OPEN

USD and USTs steady ahead of US CPI while crude slips; reports suggest optimism surrounding Middle Eastern talks

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

US President Trump responded “We’ll see” when asked if reciprocal tariffs are still coming on Wednesday.

European bourses hold an upward tilt pre-US CPI and with tariffs capping optimism; US futures are mixed.

USD steady ahead of CPI, JPY is on the backfoot given the yield environment.

USTs trade steady ahead of CPI, German yields continue their march higher.

Crude slips on inventories which saw a surprise build in headline crude stockpiles, reports suggest there is “some optimism about reaching a solution” on Middle Eastern talks

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Hyperactive U.S. policy moves appear to have frozen macro markets this week, with Wednesday’s key U.S. inflation release set to hold Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell’s benign take on economy up to the light.

Powell basically told Congress on Tuesday that the economy was fine and that Fed policy was sufficiently well calibrated to deal to with uncertainties surrounding the new government plans – credit is still ‘restrictive’ while they wait and see.

Morning Bid: Calm descends as inflation, tariffs parsed

[Mtl JP]

arrgghhh ah-ahwooo

“No, I would say that, you know, overworked maybe, not overstaffed. Everybody at the Fed works really hard,” Powell, tuesday’s hearing

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 4 HOUR CHART – 22,000

Finally cracks the 22000 barrier… now becomes the pivotal level in the absence of resistance (other than the new record high)

Keeps a bid while above 21725-21886

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Pause

I called the risk of a directional shift/pause/yesterday.

For today,

Upside limited while below 2909

Supports: 2881/2852/2834/2806

2852 is most significant, below it would negate the lsst leg up to 2942.

[Author]

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