[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – Damage not fatal

Is this just a relief reaction that tariffs were not announced on day one of the new Trump era?

For a fatal blow, the daily trendline and 1.0435-55 would need to be firmly broken.

On the downside, only a break of 1.0330-54 would expose 1.03 again.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART –  6000 stays pivotal

It is hard to trust a move when US markets are closed so keep an eye on the pivotal 6000 level (sets tone) and 6039, the latter needing to break to expose the record 6101 high. Otherwise, keeps a  bid while above 5973, only sub-5911 would suggest a reversal.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY CHART – STILL IN A RANGE?

1.4279-1.4467 has been the range for over 4 weeks with both sides briefly broken, the past few days, so far without follow throug.

Now that the downside hasa just been tested, a firm move below 1.3279 would be needed to suggest more scope on the downside. Otherwise it is back into the range.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio is trying to resurface above 4.50

NIO Inc. (NIO) Rises But Trails Market
The most recent trading session ended with NIO Inc. (NIO) standing at $4.10, reflecting a +0.49% shift from the previouse trading day’s closing.
Heading into today, shares of the company had lost 10.13% over the past month
The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of NIO Inc. in its upcoming release.

[Belgrade Bobby]

SOLUSD

Solana Bulls Counter Bearish Pressure To Keep Price Above $240

Solana price action is heating up as bulls show efforts to fend off bearish pressure and maintain the cryptocurrency above the vital $240 support level. This threshold has emerged as a key marker of market sentiment, serving as a critical point of defense for buyers aiming to keep the uptrend intact.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

Two possible targets : 3.70 & 4.40

Supports : 3.05 & 2.80

To be able to continue Up, it has to reach a new high tomorrow….if not…support testing

[Mtl JP]

Stanley Druckenmiller says ‘animal spirits’ are back in markets because of Trump with CEOs ‘giddy’ – cnbc

Druckenmiller believes Donald Trump’s re-election renewed a jolt of speculative enthusiasm in the markets and surging optimism within businesses.

“I’ve been doing this for 49 years, and we’re probably going from the most anti-business administration to the opposite,” Druckenmiller said on CNBC Monday. “We do a lot of talking to CEOs and companies on the ground. And I’d say CEOs are somewhere between relieved and giddy. So we’re a believer in animal spirits.” …

[GVI Forex 2]

Bottom line

Tariffs are coming

Size and for who?

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Straight for the downtrend trendline – Resistance at 1.04300

One wrong sentence and all changes….that is Fundamental.

But it is not over, yet.

My suggestion – stay away from trying to trade it right now and re-evaluate in next 24h.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD

110 K – almost – 109.547…

110.850 is exact number of given target– BTC can pause for awhile below it, but if taken in next 24h – next target is around 123 K

Fact that the Channel trendline held firm and launch the Bitcoin straight to the new all time high , makes me believe so.

Only close tonight Below 103 K changes this picture and negates continuous Bullish sentiment.

[Mtl JP]

Euro 1.04 (HoD 1.0430 so far)
DLRx 1.08 (LoD 1.0775)

I have not seen anything from donald that should change the rotation of plant
What I am looking at is … how stacked long dollar is the market
with the puppy below 108.90 market suggests, to me, some pricing correction is happening

Degenerate traders in a bit of teasing mode atm and imo.
Nothing tragic about the dollar just yet.

[GVI Forex 2]

That’s the second time a tariff relief headline has whacked the market…As I noted earlier press reports were not talking about tariffs as part of the executive orders… reaction to news, as always, is what counts but … big moves today in thin liquidity and all this means so far is no tariff announcement on day one.

[GVI Forex 2]

USD tanks on this.

Source: MNwaquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD HIGH 1.0326 VS 1.0330 RESISTANCE

Markets clearly on hold awaiting….

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – WATCH 1.03

1.03 has traded 5 days in a row and 11 out of the past 13

2 misses have been on one day below and one day above 1.03

Suggests 1.03 will eventually  set the tone going forward

Broad range 1.0177-1.0354 (void above the top end)… minor resistance 1.0330

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

A market on hold waiting for the inauguration of President Trump and a slew of executive orders to follow.

For the FX market, the focus will be on anything related to tariffs but I have not seen any talk of it in the press.

The heatmap, meanwhile, shows the EURUSD as an outperformer with the GBP and JPY lagging out of respective EUR crosses.

The main action has been in cryptos with BTCUSD surging higher to a new record high (marginally so far). The $Trump memecoin has been the talk of the press but I will leave my opinion on something that has no intrinsic value for another time.

Otherwise US markets are closed today, liquidity is thin and it is now just a wait until the new Trump era begins.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The week begins with China’s loan prime rate decision for December, anticipated to remain unchanged at 3.10% for the 1-year lending rate and 3.60% for the 5-year. Germany’s producer price index is also due on Monday, with forecasts of a significant 1.0% annual increase, up from 0.1% in November. Tuesday brings Canada’s consumer price index, expected to show a 0.4% monthly decline due to a GST sales tax holiday, while annual CPI growth is forecasted to ease to 1.8%, reflecting slower food price inflation despite rising energy costs.

Midweek, the U.S. leading index for December is projected to decline by 0.1%, resuming its downward trend after a brief November uptick. Japan’s merchandise trade balance, due Thursday, is expected to narrow its deficit to ¥50 billion, with export values rising for the third consecutive month and import values increasing for the ninth. U.S. jobless claims are anticipated to remain steady at 218,000, though holiday season volatility could affect the numbers.

Friday features key economic updates from Japan, including consumer price index data and the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement. Inflation is expected to rise, with core CPI seen at 2.9% annually, driven by utility subsidies ending and persistent high food prices. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%. Meanwhile, U.S. existing home sales for December are forecast to hold steady at an annual rate of 4.16 million units, despite rising mortgage rates.

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Signs of life being breathed back into China’s economy and a strong rally on Wall Street on Friday bode well for Asian markets on Monday, although nervousness around President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration could temper the optimism.

Morning Bid: Inauguration caution cools risk-on revival

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Signs of life being breathed back into China’s economy and a strong rally on Wall Street on Friday bode well for Asian markets on Monday, although nervousness around President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration could temper the optimism.

Morning Bid: Inauguration caution cools risk-on revival

[Anonymous]

What a relief!

 

Trump’s inauguration to be moved indoors

President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration will be moved indoors, he announced Friday, due to dangerously cold temperatures projected in the nation’s capital.

“I have ordered the Inauguration Address, in addition to prayers and other speeches, to be delivered in the United States Capitol Rotunda, as was used by Ronald Reagan in 1985, also because of very cold weather,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

“We will open Capital One Arena on Monday for LIVE viewing of this Historic event, and to host the Presidential Parade. I will join the crowd at Capital One, after my Swearing In,” Trump added.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/17/politics/inauguration-moving-indoors-cold-weather/index.html

[Anonymous]

Jay// 6 things to watch for… Trump just launched $TRUMP meme coins a few hours ago….

You guys brace yourselves for a hard landing…. in a real life situation crypto is gonna wreck the economy…

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead – 20-24th January

Highlights include BoJ, PBoC, PMI data, UK jobs, Inflation data from Canada, Japan and

[GVI Forex 2]

Countries around the world are bracing for an economic bruising on Monday. And few have more at stake than Canada.

Bracing for impact: 5 things to watch with Trump’s upcoming tariffs

[Mtl JP]

compensation of the different kind

Goldman CEO gets big pay boost, plus $80 million bonus for another five years at helm

[Anonymous]

I want to see every legal entity/company investing some of their profits into government treasuries, which are just a way to loan money to the government at a cost, a higher yield means the government is paying more for every dollar loaned to them. Treasuries are one of the risk less ways for companies to generate to additional source of income for the balance sheet. If they don’t want to keep that yield then they can distribute it to their shareholders which translates into more people buying that stock because it gives them a higher dividend… which is a win-win-win for the company, government and investor.

Will the dividends be higher for stock dividends or higher for treasury yields? It’s higher from companies which do invest into treasuries also.

Nowadays large companies/HNI’s all over the world are gonna be looking to buy into treasuries or into listed companies which pay dividends over stocks which generate wealth, because in which company will they reinvest that wealth? They would reinvest it in treasuries or companies paying dividends… The drivers for the global stock market trends are not only in generating wealth but preserving wealth and getting it repaid to the investor from the company by way of dividends, and the investment is benefiting from capital growth over a period of time.

Nowadays the investors who buy stocks to generate wealth end up getting trapped into buying at unsustainable valuations, so it’s better to choose from a bucket of stocks which pay dividends comparable to treasuries or simply exclude stocks and focus on treasuries. Hold the cash until opportunities in dividend paying stocks come about then start buying into them. Equity valuations are still far too high (for model traders like me) and need to correct much more and to a very large extent, however a very positive trend I also observe is that companies which have done splits, bonuses etc have already corrected and considered close but still too far from my model prints but ripe for investment nevertheless, because the model points and also the macroeconomic variables are working in the favor of those specific types of companies, and much more so if they are paying dividends comparable to, if not higher than treasury yields with a lot of room for them to make future growth. The yields can be increased if they do invest in treasuries.

Me thinks fundamentally that we can now ask the government for a cut in tax rates across the board… but….

[Mtl JP]

2 days and 5 hours to donald’s ascension
last 10-yr bond trade offered 4.623%
–
Day 1 is likely to see exec orders around the issue of the border and illegal migrants

Week 1 is likely going to be a massive stack of executive orders donald made during his campaign

The Qtn is … will donald sign them all. It is his choosing and prerogative after all.

[Anonymous]

The main point in the case of salaried people is that treasuries provide another source of income for them.

Many countries in the world have the one job allowed only restrictions, and restrictions on what their employees can do after work mainly that they cannot take up a second job or freelance a job on the side or have a legal entity in their name as such matters are seen as the employee having a conflict of interest, having a legal entity conducting business in the same or even different industry serves as grounds for the employee facing immediate termination, no questions asked. Many countries also do not have effective welfare programs…

So what many salaried people in those countries do is to look for other streams of income such as fixed income securities, buying rental properties etc.

Their investing in fixed income government securities is the harmless way.

Treasury prices can also plateau for many years but then there is frequent cash turnover and reinvestment which when done long enough doubles their net worth.

Some people think rental property is the way but it is not, oh! the rental property will keep on growing in value. However, that is relevant if they plan to rent then sell the property in 10 years and not hold it for 50 years because at that time then who will be willing to pay market value with the hope saying oh! rental rates and property prices will keep on growing in the future… rental and property prices tend to plateau and stay flat for many years at a stretch. Now where is the appreciation in that?. The whole building gets older over time, and needs maintenance which costs $$$$$, The costs of building materials and a team of workers are justified only if the property is purchased for the owner to live in the property with his/her family.

Treasury yields nowadays are higher than property yields and will remain so in future times to come.

[Mtl JP]

that you are an incarnation of a crystal ball

[GVI Forex 2]

if I told you the 10 year bond yield would fall from 4.80% to briefly under 4.60% and the dollar would close the week on a firm note, what would you say?

[GVI Forex 2]

US500  DAILY CHART –  WAKE UP TIME

US500 waking up to falling bond yields to inch closer to 6000.

While key resistance looms at 6009-39, the pivotal 6000 level will dictate whether this move makes a serious run at the record 6101 high.

[Author]

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