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Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD and crypto slammed lower
US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs; Trump responded with flat 15% global tariff
Refund uncertainty adds fresh legal and policy ambiguity
USD broadly sold; EUR/USD back above 1.18
USD/JPY fell sharply toward 154.00
Gold hit three-week high; oil eased on Globex reopen
US-Iran talks to resume Thursday, interim deal possibility flagged
Crypto slid sharply; Bitcoin back below US$65K amid liquidation chatter
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
- Trading midway between 65K=70K leaves little incentive unless either side is taken out. Key levels remain outside of it at 60K and 72K
- Bulls likely not to give up the fight unless 60K (more so 50K) is taken out but have to be disappointed by BITCOIN’s failure to attract a safe haven bid.
BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
- Currently trapped within 65-70K with key levels outside of its at 60K and 72K.
- Chart shows resistance at 68417 and 69164 block the upside while 66403 and 65570 guard the downside.
- Note: Fine tuning chart levels in this crypto is a leap of faith where momentum and key round number levels play a stronger role,
BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Newsquawk US Market Wrap 3
In response to the ruling, T-notes were sold on the prospects of lack of income and potential tariff refunds, but swiftly pared on the expectation that Trump will enforce tariffs through other means – which was later confirmed. In FX, the reaction was to sell the Dollar, but ultimately it pared from worst levels and ended the session only slightly lower. AUD outperformed while havens lagged. Crude prices settled flat but in choppy trade, with any gains overnight offset by reports that Trump is considering a limited strike on Iran. Silver and Gold prices added to recent gains while Bitcoin also caught a bid. Aside from tariffs, there was plenty of US data. Q4 GDP was soft, but weighed on by the government shutdown, while the December PCE report was hot. The S&P Global Flash PMI data in the US was soft while UoM also missed expectations but new Home Sales beat. However, price action was largely dictated by the trade updates.
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
- Glass half full (above 65K) or half full above 65K)
- Glass half full being put to a test with the failure to regain 70K and benefit from a risk on mood putting 65K at risk. If broken, then 60K becomes the last line of defense to a further meltdown.
- Above 65K keeps the range to 70-72k.
BTCUSD DAILY CHART
Global-View Market Update
- USD Up on the day but off highs after EURUSD held 1.1800, GBPUSD bounced from below 1.35 and USDJPY ran stops above 143.75 as bipolar mood flips back to risk on
- US stocks back with a bid in choppy trade after US500 again found support below 6800 and NAS recovered earlier losses.
- XAUUSD down sharply on the day but bounce from a 4841 low would need to regain 4900 to cool some of the risk.,
- BITCOIN in the background trading mid-way between 65K-70K
- US bond yields down
- Crude oil down on glimmer of hope from US-Iran talks
Market Update
Defensive trading into the long US holiday weekend
- US stocks trying to recover but so far US500 has failed on first attempt to hold above 6850 following its bounce from sub-6800 test
- NAS100 rally attempt paused shy of 24860, to keep it on the defensive but consolidating.
- XAUUSD rebound testing 5000+, which is currently acting like a pivot
- USD is trading cautiously irmer with the JPY lagging after leading overnight. EURUSD 1,.1850 remains pivotal
- BITCOIN is trying find some legs after yesterday’s bounce off 65000 yesterday but needs to gewt through 70-72K to break down momentum..
Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red
The indicators in the graph are all key on-chain metrics covering different dimensions of the network. For example, the MVRV Z-Score deals with general investor profitability, while the Trader Realized Price and Trader On-chain Profit Margin specifically track the profit-loss status of the short-term holders.
All the indicators in the heatmap are currently giving a red signal, implying conditions aren’t favorable for a bull market. As long as that remains the case, it is hard to imagine BTC reaching new highs in the short term.
Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Falling to $50,000 Before Recovery
Standard Chartered is warning that crypto markets may face one final wave of selling pressure before staging a broader recovery. According to the bank, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 in the months ahead.
In a note to clients, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Asset Research, said the near-term outlook remains challenging amid intensifying macroeconomic headwinds and weakening ETF flows.
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
- Having failed to hold 70-72K, momentum building again to the downside, highlighted by the break of the 67245 range bottom.
- However, with little on charts until the 59886 low, there are no obvious stops levels to go after, leaving it dependent on staying above 65K to keep thoughts of the low contained.
BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART
BTCUSD 4 h
Bitcoing failed to return above 72 K and now we have to see reactions at:
Supports: 68.200 & 65.350
For BTC to form a bottom and turn back Up again, it has to stay clear of 62.800
Loss of that support would open a huge can of worms…like attack at Major Support waiting at 52.850
Bellow that one All Bets are OFF
Bitcoin bottom at $60K? The answer might be in Tether’s dominance chart
Bitcoin BTCUSD may form a bottom in the coming weeks as Tether’s USDTUSD dominance retests a key resistance level that preceded BTC’s 2022 cycle low.
Tether dominance tops have aligned with BTC bottoms
As of February, Tether dominance reached the 8.50%–9.00% range (the red area in the chart below), revisiting a historically significant zone that previously aligned with Bitcoin’s bear market lows.
Bitcoin whales took advantage of $60K price dip, scooping up 40K BTC
Bitcoin BTCUSD rebounded 17% to trade near $70,000 on Monday, from its 15-month low below $60,000, as whales took advantage of discounted prices to accumulate.
Key takeaways:
Large investors have bought the dip to $60,000, adding at least 40,000 BTC.
Bitcoin’s downside risks remain as buyers fail to push the price above $72,000.
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
Has this battered crypto formed a bottom?
- It is hard to draw conclusions from weekend trading when the rest of global markets are closed.
- The jury, meanwhile, is out but what has changed is there are no key stops until the 59845 low.
- To make this more than a volatile retracement and build momentum, 70K+ needs to be established followed by a break of 71666
- The 6% retreat from 71666 so far finding a low at 67251 but using round numbers, 65K is a key level on the downside (above needed to keep thoughts away from the low) and 70k on the upside.
BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Bitcoin, XRP, Ether Rebound from Lows. Why the Crypto Crisis Isn’t Over
Bitcoin tumbled to around $60,000 early Friday, wiping out all of its gains since President Donald Trump’s election win 15 months ago. However, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has rebounded to above $65,000 — maybe the selling has stopped, at least for now.
Bitcoin was trading at $65,750 early in the day, down 8% over the past 24 hours but up from lows of $60,057.00 — the lowest level since Oct.11, 2024. The crypto slump has been brutal in recent days, exacerbated by a recent selloff artificial intelligence-linked companies. Bitcoin has now fallen 48% from its record high of above $126,000 in October last year.
The world’s second largest crypto, Ethereum, was down 10% to $1,921 early Friday. Elsewhere, popular altcoin XRP slipped 6.1% to $1.32. Both also rallied off lows overnight.
ETHUSD Monthly
