[GVI Forex 2]

Trump Trades

Stocks bond yields usd up

Bitcoin hits record high

[SF Monedge]

Bloomberg reporting betting market now has 70% odds of a Trump win.  Trump stock and Bitcoin are taking off.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Harry Robertson

From U.S. small-cap stocks to bitcoin to the dollar, some investors are seeking out assets that can prosper under a second Donald Trump presidency.

The former president has taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets, although Harris held a marginal lead in a Reuters/Ipsos poll this week.

So-called Trump trades focus on those parts of the global economy likely to feel the force of tariff hikes, deregulation, and bigger deficits.

Morning Bid: Trump trades shine, China data darkens

[GVI Forex 2]

Small-cap stocks, bitcoin climb; Mexican peso, Treasuries slip

Trump Media & Technology Group shares up 140% since Sept. 23

Investors debate if market moves are due to Trump or economic optimism

NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters) – Corners of financial markets that could feel the impact of a Donald Trump victory are stirring again, as the U.S. presidential race tightens with less than three weeks until Election Day.

From bitcoin to Mexican peso, ‘Trump trades’ are appearing again

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin Weekly

Supports : 62.400 , 60.350 & 55.900

Resistances : 66.500 , 69.000 & 70.000

This is a very Bullish Pattern right now, but can be cut short already on 69K.

Needs to hold this week above 63.900 to confirm more advances Up.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX

Nasdaq composite: Land of confusion
U.S. equity index futures sharply higher: Nasdaq 100 up >2%

Initial claims 219k vs 230k est; Philly Fed +1.7 vs -1.0 est

Euro STOXX 600 index up ~1.3%

Dollar ~flat; gold gains; crude up >1%; bitcoin up >4%

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~3.77%

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – Still In Limbo

Bitcoin remains in the background, finding some support as seen by its trendline but not enough so far to build momentum.

If you take 50K-70K a a range, then 60K is neutral.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX

Nasdaq composite: Once again, it’s make-or-break for breadth
Dow futures up slightly, S&P 500 slip, Nasdaq 100 off ~0.5%

Sep NY Fed Manufacturing index 11.5 vs -4.75 estimate

Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.1%

Dollar down; bitcoin off ~2; gold edges up; crude up >1%

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~flat at ~3.66%

NASDAQ COMPOSITE: ONCE AGAIN, IT’S MAKE-OR-BREAK FOR BREADTH The Nasdaq composite  IXIC is still down more than 5% from its record highs. That said, the tech-laden index is on a five day win streak, and just posted its biggest weekly rise since early-November 2023.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART – BITCOIN WAKES UP

Rebound above 60K currently +4.8%) now needs to hold and then take out 65K to suggest the move has more legs to it.

[Ab hk]

gold buyers are still in place, need to hear the clear whistle before big play, next Tue?

 

btw, bitcoin is very mute, capital just moved one from another

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin Daily

“Possible Bitcoin price drop to $52K rises as BTC derivatives data shows traders losing hope” Mainstream media….

But in my opinion, technically speaking – Close tonight above 59.300 would create a very Bullish Pattern – a perfect ground for attack at 70 K once again.

However , close below 58.200 would call for at least 56K and 50 K soon after.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Bitcoin – BTCUSD

BTC/USD: Bitcoin Rockets 15% as Good Jobs Data Ignites Post-Selloff Bargain Hunt

Bitcoin prices rally 15%.

Ether prices join rally.

Traders hunt for bargains.

Crypto enthusiasts snapped up tokens on discount left and right after jobless claims offered glimmer of hope that the economy may not be that bad.

[Ab hk]

seems truth unveils……

When will bitcoin at 20000? When a lot are yelling for 150K?

[SF Monedge]

I believe we should see Bitcoin futures at 6040 in coming weeks though there is decent potential to see 6800 or higher prior.  Enjoyed the Ether ETF rolling out the other day.  Any participation in crypto on my part at this stage is purely speculative due to them not yet being mature instruments.  I realize that upsets the average GenZ and Millennial anarchist who wants them to replace to US Dollar so they can feel like they changed the world and are oh so smart, but those are just the facts.  They should transform to being more viable financial instruments over time like moth larvae somewhat in around 2 years from now.  Ultimately Stablecoin will dominate the pool of fringe crypto’s in various respects.

On another note I like the buy side of Gold stocks and if you don’t have much money then GROY (Gold Rty Group) from the 1.30’s or perhaps even 1.40’s is decent R/R you can live with even if it doesn’t go your way right away.

[GVI Forex 2]

De-risking described the day

Bonds are down yields are up
Stocks are down across the board
Gold is down
Commodities are down, including oil

But Bitcoin is up

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin Weekly

Bitcoin getting Bullish again – Real Obstacle waiting at 71.000

·         Bitcoin soars after Trump survives shooting.

·         Prices crossed $66,000 from $56,600.

·         Trump to address audience at BTC event.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTC – Bitcoin

Supports : 62.350.00 , 60.500.00 & 57.500.00

Resistances : 67.400.00 , 70.700.00 & 79.350.00

Most important level on the Up side is resistance at 70.700.00

If it holds the ground, BTC will be on it’s way down again.

Support at 57.500.00 separates it from 45.500.00

[SF Monedge]

Had a brief call with someone I respect tremendously yesterday (Jay) regarding EurGbp.  My metrics show the pair remaining offered on buy cycles toward 8450/60 area for now.

On Crypto and the FED and Stablecoin – It is difficult to substantiate the thought that all crypto vehicles will be buried once the use of Stablecoin is established, but the ones that survive will be Bitcoin and a few that help the poor in poor countries, or offer something solidly unique and useful within realistic value of use.

A lot of talk from politicians regarding bank stability should a shock arise during the Powell testimony.  As I noted yesterday, major US banks recently roundingly passed stress tests and technology is improving.  The one issue concerning me is the effect of a major cyber attack should it occur and/or flat out war with the US and another major power(s), which one would think is unlikely unless some insane person gains access to terrible weaponry.  Otherwise the banking industry looks strong.

[SF Monedge]

Bitcoin should target 60000 from 58000 today/tomorrow in my metrics.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin
Bitcoin falls further amid sell pressure from German government exchange transfers and Mt. Gox payouts
Bitcoin’s price has fallen further over the past 24 hours as Mt Gox payouts and the German government’s transfers of BTC to crypto exchanges have rattled markets.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin Daily

Support at 53.000.00 , 50.200 & 45.500.00

Resistance at 58.500.00 & 61.500.00

It couldn’t go above 58.500 on Friday and the Close indicates renewed pressure to the Downside.

[SF Monedge]

I bought Bitcoin at 25k a while back.  Really would love to see 35k again, which if I recall accurately Bobby also pointed out as a good area.  The range of value I estimated a long time ago is 35k low end and 150k high end with a fair value of 65k.  Seems to be going that way.  All we need is a few more major blockchain frauds to get us to 35k.

[GVI Forex 2]

You can’t make this up

…Fears of looming selling pressure on bitcoin (BTC) from defunct exchange Mt. Gox and possible miner sales pushed the largest cryptocurrency to under $59,000 on Thursday for the first time since late April.

Mt. Gox will start distributing assets stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in July 2024, after years of postponed deadlines. The repayments will be made in bitcoin and bitcoin cash (BCH), and could add selling pressure to both markets, as previously reported….Coindesk

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

If below 58.500, it will target 55K .

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

In an glimpse at how megacap tails wag the dog, a near half-trillion dollar shakeout in AI-bellwether Nvidia’s (.NVDA), opens new tab market cap in just a week continued to drag on the entire market even though most S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab stocks ended higher on Monday.

Morning Bid: Nvidia’s half trillion hiccup; Bitcoin, China slide

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

Bitcoin continues to slide further down and first support that might come handy is at around 60K.

Leave the dreams, hopes and good wishes out of this – we are talking strictly technical.

This is not a miracle toy, but just a commodity of a kind that lots of people got hot on…but some wants also to take their profits…

Reality is that it should be heading to 56K and then we can talk about changing the direction

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD
Bitcoin’s days below $70K are numbered as traders cite BTC’s swing low as the bottom
I see it at 55K…

Let’s see who’s gonna be right.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

Bitcoin crashes below $66K, More pain ahead?
Bitcoin dropped more than 2% in the last 24 hours to drop the $65,000 price level during the US trading session straight down from around $67,000. Over the past seven days, BTC has declined by 7.5%, marking its weakest price in four weeks.

Technical support comes at 64.850

 

[SF Monedge]

Regarding GameStop.  I converse with various people about the subject and similar.  Most of the enthusiasts are younger generation.  Rebellious and trying to change the world and shove it to the elders.  Some of the outcome is awesome, some is insanely stupid.  That crowd included “influencers.”  There are literally now millions of them in China now, lines of them on bridges next to eachother making videos for money.  The problem is 2% of them control 94% of the revenue stream.  The rest are wasting time.  Learn how to spell the word – broke.

Couple that with the increasing influence of AI and mass job replacement, these generations are in for a rough time.  Not a good time to be both ignorant and arrogant simultaneously.

There is value in the US Dollar.  Bitcoin will never replace it kids.  StableCoin (US government version to arrive within a year or so) will to an extent, but likely primarily as a transaction vehicle.  For the Dollar.

[SF Monedge]

Yesterday job openings showed decline and today the services index showed expansion.  Services, not manufacturing.  An argument could be made the S/P 500 stops dead near 5350 coming up.  Dxy is still bid factually today overall despite the intra-day pause.  That would transfer to Bitcoin as well since some people amazingly consider it an asset to trade like stocks right now.