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Bitcoin faces downside risk as leverage builds near $76K support
Bitcoin has remained under pressure below $78,000 after four straight days of ETF outflows, and a derivatives flush earlier this week which has continued to weigh on market sentiment.
Early-week liquidations have continued to influence positioning across derivatives markets.
According to Bitfinex analysts, crypto futures markets saw at least $657 million in liquidations on Monday, with long positions accounting for roughly $584 million of that total.
European markets wrap: Oil jumps up, risk dips after US-Iran talks collapse
Markets:
WTI crude up 8% to $104.10
US dollar a little higher across the board
Major indices in Europe lower by 0.7% to 1.0%; S&P 500 futures down 0.6% on the day
Gold down 0.8% to $4,708
US 10-year yields up 4 bps to 4.35%
Bitcoin down 0.6% to $70,957
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) DAILY
Momentum tilting up with a bid as long as 70K+ trades but…
… while everyone seems to be talking about 75K, it is the 76K level that holds the key to whether this is just a swing in the range or whether there will be more to it.
Otherwise, watch the risk on/off mood as this seems to be driving the direction.
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) 4 HOUR
Clearly a case of glass half empty or glass half full
Glass half empty: Failure on repeated attempts to regain 0K+ is bearish
Glass have full: Failure to establish below 65K is encouraging to the bull side
Until BTCUSD can decide on its role, safe haven, correlation with risk on/off or just a digital., spec asset with no intrinsic value, expect more chop until the battle for 65K-70K is decided.
Current range: 64920 – 69262
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
The jury is still out whether Bitcoin at $70K: Is BTCUSD Truly Bullish or Just “Bid in an Offered Market”? (scroll below to read the article) but the failure to establish 70K has setup potential for a daily downtrend.
For that to occur and confirm BTCUSD was bid in an offered market, 65K (64986) would need to be firmly broken.
Otherwise, 70K remains the focus.
BTCUSD DAILY CHART
Timely article in our blog
Bitcoin at $70K: Is BTCUSD Truly Bullish or Just “Bid in an Offered Market”?
NEWSQUAWK MARKET WRAP (2)
It was a risk-off session with oil prices surging and equities tumbling as we head into a weekend of risk. WTI reclaimed USD 100/bbl post-settlement while E-mini futures briefly fell to sub 6,400. The moves came despite Trump’s olive branch Thursday evening, where he postponed the attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure and power plants by another 10 days, taking the new deadline to April 6th.
Elsewhere, T-notes saw two-way price action with initial downside fading throughout the US session despite the negative newsflow and positioning elsewhere in markets, perhaps indicating some profit taking or month end rebalancing taking place.
In FX, the Dollar outperformed while CHF and GBP lagged. USD/JPY rose above 160. Gold and Silver were bid as bonds pared the overnight moves, while Bitcoin was hit. Cyber Security names were hit by an AI-disruption story. Reports dropped of a new leaked Anthropic AI model, “Claude Mythos”, which the company believes poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks.
Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days
NAS100 (NASDAQ) WEEKLY CHART
In our blog
Bitcoin at $70K: Is BTCUSD Truly Bullish or Just “Bid in an Offered Market”?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to hover around the critical $70,000 level, leaving traders divided. Is this a sign of underlying strength, or is Bitcoin simply appearing strong within a broader bearish trend?
This debate can be summed up with a classic trading concept: is the market truly “bid,” or just “feeling bid in an offered market”?
Understanding this distinction could help traders avoid costly mistakes, especially in today’s volatile crypto environment.
Bitcoin at $70K: Is BTCUSD Truly Bullish or Just “Bid in an Offered Market”?
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
- Trying to build up momentum off higher lows (2 red lines) but struggling to distance from 70K.
- To build up momentum, needs to clear 72K+ and then break 75K-76K for this to be more than a swing within a wide range.
- While 70K is likely pivotal, it needs to stay above the trendline and 68872 to keep its bid.
BTCUSD 4 HGUR CHART
Bitcoin rebounds during Iran war, but safe haven role unproven
Before the Iran war broke out, Bitcoin spent months trading sideways while gold rallied to record levels. At the time, gold was seen as the go-to safe haven
Nearly a month after the US and Israel launched the first strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, that view is being challenged. Bitcoin initially fell to $63,176 on the news of the attacks but has since risen about 12% to $71,012, as of Wednesday.
Why are Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Prices Rallying Today?
Bitcoin surged past $71,000, Ethereum climbed 5% and XRP jumped 3.4% on Sunday as news that the United States and Iran had held direct talks toward a full resolution of Middle East hostilities sent shockwaves through global markets and triggered one of crypto’s strongest single-day rallies in months.
The total crypto market cap jumped 3.64% to $2.45 trillion, adding roughly $85 billion in value within hours of President Trump confirming the talks had taken place.
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
- At this time yesterday, BTCUSD was trying to re-establish above 70K but currently the worm has turned with a move back below it putting it on the defensive.
- While this is still more chop within a broad 65K-76K range, a move below 68K would put the bottom of the range and key 64884 support on the radar.
- While above 68k, focus stays on 70k
BTCUSD DAILY CHART
