[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BACK TO 2500

Gold can’t make up its mind but the bounce off 2480 keeps 2500 as the ultimate bias setter.

2480 is the bottom of a narrow range,

2507 is the top of a narrow range with a void to 2527-32 while above it.

[GVI Forex 2]

Scroll down to see the EURUSD post as it trades just above 1.1030 support.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – TYPICAL FALSE START?

As I noted in the Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Note the start of a new quarter and post-summer often sees false starts and whipsaws until market settle on a theme and recover full liquidity.

Well, there was one already in USDJPY after it failed to reach 147.34 (high 14t.20) as has since back off.

Catalyst: Weaker equities (risk off)

This ;leaves 145 as the ultimate bias setter in a market that will keep an eye as to whether this correlation continues.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.915% up a bit

so is DLRx

[SF Monedge]

Jay spot on

[GVI Forex 2]

TUE: Swiss CPI (Aug), Swiss GDP (Q2), Turkish CPI (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), Final Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

See our Economic Calendar

 

[GVI Forex 2]

How markets react to data this week will give a clue as to whether the dollar can regain its legs and/or stocks can extend the end of august rally.

How these markets end the week will be more important than how they start it.

Here are the key events and detailed previews:

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead: Highlights include US NFP & ISMs; BoC rate decision, Canada jobs; Australian GDP and Swiss CPI

[SF Monedge]

Jay – concur on that comparison.  You could see the money flow moving from Yen to Franc.  Spot on, thank you.

[GVI Forex 2]

Summary
Swiss franc more appealing in carry trades after yen blow-up
Investors hope for stability, aided by central bank
Yet safe-haven status can lead to big rallies

LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) – As investors turn to the Swiss franc as an alternative to Japan’s yen to fund carry trades, the risk of the currency staging one of its rapid rallies remains ever present.

Swiss franc carry trade comes fraught with safe-haven rally risk

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY remains the main mover today … see below for resistance levels

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.1050 Sets the tone

On this chart 1.1030 is a key support, 1.1095 a key resistance.

Here is the EURUSD update in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook
‘
Assuming the high is in at 1,12, what is the risk on the downside?

Start out by using 1.10-1.12 as a range to the post summer market with 1.11 as the neutral mid-point and the ultimate bias setter for this currency.

Currently, 1.1050 will set the tone if trading between 1.10-1.11 but expect a limited upside unless 1.11+ is renewed

See our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

Trying to build momentum after breaking a pattern around 145 but as the chart shows it faces layers of resistance ahead of the key level at 149.39.

So, keep your eye on 146.50 as this is the level it needs to trade above to suggest a further risk to the upside.

[SF Monedge]

I was very sharp last week and did not trust my instinct at the last minute Friday and coughed up 1/3 ..Ok get back in the fight

I traded exactly what I told you to not do just to make sure I am right.

 

[Mtl JP]

US ELECTION AS TRADING THEME
–
When can one expect markets to start to trade on odds of next w/house inhabitant ?

Don’t Look Now, but Trump’s Back to Being the Favorite – NATHAN SILVER

[michael Calif]

Law of Vibration has arrived at a turn lower for SP500  …  use amazing trader for Sell entry levels    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points for a third meeting in a row, this despite better-than-expected second-quarter growth of 2.1 percent. The US employment report on Friday is the other big event, expected to rebound 160,000 for nonfarm payroll growth following July’s disappointing 114,000 gain.

Other data will include Swiss consumer prices and GDP on Tuesday, both expected to remain unchanged at 1.3 percent year-over-year and 0.5 percent quarter-over-quarter, respectively. German manufacturing orders on Wednesday are expected to fall back in July after jumping higher in June with German industrial production on Friday likewise expected to fall back after rising in June.

Econoday

[michael Calif]

repost from last Sunday:    law of vibration calling for higher 10yr rates for the time being.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART – GLASS HALF EMPTY OR HALF FILLED

i t may be a matter of looking at your glass half empty or half full after BTC held a test below 50K but failed to get back above 65K.

Personally, if I was a BTC bull (for the record I do not trade cryptos) I would be disappointed that it has not been a safe haven that followed gold to a record high

In any case, the current range is just outside 55K-65K with 60K clearly pivotal in setting its trading tone.

[GVI Forex 2]

Summer is over – USD shorts got washed out – New ball game.

Weekly FX Chart Outlook: September 2. 2024

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk.com Week Ahead: Highlights include US NFP & ISMs; BoC rate decision, Canada jobs; Australian GDP and Swiss CPI

[michael Calif]

as posted Sunday last, the law of vibration projected lower Euro and Yen futures prices during this week.    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

There was context recently in discussion about the value of the US Dollar Index x

Risk management is vital.  When trading.  The economics are ar reflection.  When trading Yen I found as a Quant, it becomes math.  I zlso found that perception is almost impossible to quantify.

Result? In Irony … go with what you see but not in a fierce fahion.

[GVI Forex 2]

Goldilocks market?

Summary

Economic data supports expectation of 25 bps cut in September

Marvell jumps after forecast beats estimates

Ulta Beauty tumbles following annual forecast trim

S&P 500 +1.01%, Nasdaq +1.13%, Dow +0.55%

Aug 30 (Reuters) – Wall Street stocks rose and the Dow scored a second consecutive all-time closing high on Friday, with Tesla and Amazon climbing after fresh U.S. economic data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates modestly in September.

Dow notches record high close after upbeat economic data

[SF Monedge]

Risk management is vital.  What matters as much is a word can’t say in public.  Use your intuition.

When trading.

But be sharp about it.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 101.67

butting up against downtrent t-line drawm from 30 of 7th
on the daily chart

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 3.903%
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

suddenly going vertical up on the day

[GVI Forex 2]

End of month…end of summer (ugh)… end of USD downtrends or end of summer squeeze?

Thanks Michael for your timely alerts

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 101.63

more than 9 pips past 50 …
short natives getting nervous, anxious …

[Mtl JP]

as jules maigret might say “intéressant” :

WASHINGTON, Aug 29 (Reuters) – U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has approved a request to provide the Secret Service with additional military support capabilities for presidential and vice presidential candidates for the upcoming election, the Pentagon and the Secret Service said separately on Thursday.

[michael Calif]

law of vibration is continuous and ever-changing; almost never the same turn point twice in a row.    :gtwo3

[Author]

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