[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD WEEKLY CHART – AND THE WINNER IS….

AUDUSD up 1% and so far the outperformer

On the downside, 2 levels to watch:

.6825 (key daily resistance broken) and 6800

Maintains a bid while above .6800, stronger bid if .5825 become support

Watch US equities, which are setting the risk on tone

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD MONTHLY CHART – MULTI YEAR HIGH

As we await the BOE decision, I had to go to a monthly chart to see the broader picture, which is GBPUSD trading to the highest levels since early 2022.

Closest key level is yesterday’s 1.3298 high, then a void above it.

Intra-day support starts at 1.3240

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –

Looking at this chart, clear out the broken lines and it is 2500-2600 (record high), upside exposed as long as it stays above 2550.

To repeat what I posted yesterday:

XAUUSD extended its record high BUT THEN HIT A WALL AT 2600.

Look for support as long it trades above 2500-11 but unlike recent days, there are no stops to go for on the upside unless 2600 is taken out.

If it trades between 2500-2600, then 2550 will set its intra-day bias.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks up => risk on => usd down but only AUDUSD among the majors has extended its high

Next up is the UK rate decision => no change expected

[SF Monedge]

Good thing I took a quick profit on the UsdJpy sell at the NY high.  This is follow through buying from large money with interest at 140 and it could stick.  Forward contracts and futures/options among other things were buying pre-Fed.

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up Aussie jobs report

Note AUDUSD firm ahead of it (USDJPY 143+}

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

It may be different this time, of course, but the average one-year stock market return after the first Fed rate cut is almost 5% even when a recession occurs. And it’s more than 16% when the cuts come without a recession materialising at all – the most likely scenario now facing investors.(From Reutets article linked to earlier)

[michael Calif]

previous post:   Law of Time, the decline in USD futures since late June has ended.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

When the dust settles, how markets end the week will be more important than the whipsaws we saw today.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – Still In Limbo

Bitcoin remains in the background, finding some support as seen by its trendline but not enough so far to build momentum.

If you take 50K-70K a a range, then 60K is neutral.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART- Post FOMC Whipsaw

XAUUSD extended its record high BUT THEN HIT A WALL AT 2600.

Look for support as long it trades above 2500-11 but unlike recent days, there are no stops to go for on the upside unless 2600 is taken out.

If it trades between 2500-2600, then 2550 will set its intra-day bias.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – 20k OR BUST?

NAS100 finding support by holding above its 200 day mva (yellow) and moving back above its 100 day mva (blue).

On the upside, key resistance is close enough to 20,000 to use this as the level that would need to be taken out to suggest the record high is in play again.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – NEW RECORD HIGH BUT…

A new record high (5692) but so far unable to maintain the breakout through 5673.

This leaves it dependent on 5600+ to keep a bid but in any case, while not fatal the failure to hold the breakout is a disappointment.

[SF Monedge]

Jay – Yields as well as forwards as I mentioned this morning, which were dominant long.  This was priced in as of last week.  But only partly.  Odds are we see sub-140 in time and this little win runs out fast.  I’m already positioning as of now short UsdJpy.

[GVI Forex 2]

Everything reversing… I gave 2 clues (see below), the last one (rising bond yields) put the nail in the coffin

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields up post Fed….

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets giving back post-data gains… News reporters will call it a Buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction…but it is more than Powell did not send a signal and left it up to a meeting by meeting decision (see my post below)… rates are heading lower but pace is determined by data

[Ab hk]

We can see 2500 LOL…..

[Ab hk]

Seems the rationalising 10 yr level could be a potential killer for all those bubbles

[GVI Forex 2]

Powell… no preset path… meeting to meeting decision… data dependent

[SF Monedge]

JP – Concur.  BANK Index began moving up strongly Thursday of last week and is gunning to break recent highs as we speak.

[Mtl JP]

50 pts giving GOLD wings

I think next beneficiery will be bank stocks if not already

[GVI Forex 2]

FOMC statement

[Anonymous]

FED cuts rate by 50bps… it’s official

[Anonymous]

a new covid variant xec or sommat like that is blooming in some economies again…

[Anonymous]

volatility is what makes traders their money… that is why I would always be making calls on stg/yen… otherwise t-bills/bonds are better for linear gains… no chance of loss unless living in Pakistan or similar economy.

[SF Monedge]

Rafe – Concur, thank you.  And if one does not have access, and is limited to spot, then perhaps more stable/less volatile pairs such as AudCad are good for days such as this if one does not have much risk tolerance or tiger attitude.

[Anonymous]

In that case puts are better as options strategies… or at least for Indian markets but Indian markets are very resilent and very sturdy. If anything happens it affects them for a day or so but then they bounce back to break all time highs.

[SF Monedge]

Technically the strongest way to approach days like this is with option contracts but you really need to know what you are doing and not even think for a second some guru on youtube or tiktok thinks they know what they are doing.  That includes the various “signal service” sites on the net.  I have met some of them in my travels and they are cast offs, some who worked in a bank for a while, who could not even sniff what it really means to know what you are doing or match the professionals I have dealt with.  Use your heads people.

[Anonymous]

options are a better play since there is so much uncertainty

[Author]

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