[SF Monedge]

There is much more open interest in Eu calls vs puts.  There is more extrinsic value in puts.  Implied volatility is more median/stable in calls indicating structure.  Gamma on puts is far greater a band and so puts are very unstable.  By options contracts alone when compared to other metrics such as forwards Euro is not happy and so a pullup would be customary to 1.1180 where thy buying dies out.

[GVI Forex 2]

CB Consumer Sentiment beats on the upside — yawn reaction\\

See our Economic Calendar

[michael Calif]

which will occur first  ??  …  Euro futures rally to 1.200 or decline to 1.000    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

My projection of Yen from NY session yesterday for 145.25 fell within 8 pips of accuracy but did not fill overnight.  At times the main thing is the market is demonstrating mathematic cohesion.

UsdJpy just broke some average related (which I do not trade on but other participants do) parameters but it is not enough yet to warrant selling out on the downside and so there is still mathematical chance for the pair to hold just above 144.12.

[GVI Forex 2]

Next focus… US CB consumer confidence

[Belgrade Bobby]

My trading stance on the FED’s, ECB, Data….

[Mtl JP]

with the FEDs having successfully fed (poison) players, current and for the next d=few days players are likely to geame month-end and , to unlikely solid comittement, game friday’s PCE

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.1160

2-day double bottom around 1.1150 vs. 2 day double top at 1.1179

[Mtl JP]

ya but … have alook at the euro “50” magicians

[GVI Forex 2]

Those buying USDJPY earlier on higher yields got smacked in the nose.

[Mtl JP]

yes – starting today:

13:00nyt – 69bln of 2yr paper

[Mtl JP]

DLRJPY

it seems to me this pair is currently sensitive to micro-move in relative yields

anxiety, fear and greed energy drivers

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, thanks for the alert on US bond yields… boatload of Treasury bonsd being issued this week

[Mtl JP]

with early euro teasing “magical” 50
some may be tempted to try scalping on within 1-2 pip approach

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY nosebleed reaction has seen a brief blip below 144.50 (still pivotal)… offsets are helping the uSD elsewhere

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1160

Bias: inactive / uP
Res 1.1195
Sup 1.1140, 1.1110/00

Puppy is looking, on some techs, pushing stretch limits.
Should the puppy give indication of a want to wonder down there appears to be a lot of interest to try to prevent such idea.

Earlier
ECB’s Knot Says Tighter Fiscal Policy Would Have Curbed Prices

10:00nyt – ecb nagel yaks

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 100.67 / 10-yr 3.856% (not kidding)

Daly came out over the week-end yakking that “the time is upon us” to cut interest rates, Asked if there is anything that could derail a rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, Daly told Bloomberg TV that it “would be hard to imagine at this point.”

This morning sofar DLRx appears to be tilting down.
There currently is little to suggest a turn to the upside unless, imo, bonds turn uP their yield. Why that would happen is reasonably prognosticated by Bill Gross:
Bloomberg – May 2, 2024 — Gross says 10-year yields will rise above 5% in a year · Government will increase debt supply to keep economy growing.”
I trust bonds as timing indicator for MY trading tactics but , currently, I can not / don’t want to afford position trading (via long DLRx for example) for a while yet.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD WEEKLY CHART – 4 WEEKS IN A ROW

USDCAD pattern; 4 down weeks in a row and now dependent on staying below 1.35 to keep it going.
‘
Key levels are at 1.3175 and 1.3092, still out of range but exposed if it can distance from 1.35.

Intra-day expect 1.3450 to be pivotal.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street stocks (.SPX), opens new tab are back just shy of new record highs, lapping up the likely start of Federal Reserve easing next month but wary of Wednesday’s quarterly update from artificial intelligence behemoth Nvidia (NVDA.O),

Morning Bid: Pre-Nvidia hesitation obscures record high

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 30 MINUTE CHART – 145 NOSEBLEED?

Failure so far to maintain 145+ after pausing below Monege’s 145.25 resistance

Now needs to stay above 144.57 (suggests 144.50 as well) or risk shifts back to 144.20-25.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – NEW HIGH

UK is back and GBP is in demand, both vs, the USD and on some of its crosses (EURGBP breaks below .8450)

When in unchartered waters 92+ year high), the most recent new high becomes key resistance.

The 1.3230 high has been extended, marginally so far. To guess at the next resistance zone, it would be 1.3250-80 if 1.3230 becomes support.

In any case, GBPUDD maintains a bid as long as it trades above 1.3180-00, stronger bid if above 1.3230..

[GVI Forex 2]

Main mover has been USDJPY which has tested 14)5 (high 145.17), a clear bias setting level and the midpoint of 143.59-146.50.

GBPJPY has so far been an outperformed.

No news other than an uptick in US yields

Note Monege’s 145.25 level cited yesterday

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

Key resistance 146.51 is currently out of range so…

Use 142-145 as a potential range, 143.50 midpoint blocks exposing 142 and the 141.68 low (Monday’s low was 143.44)

Limited upside unless 145+ is renewed.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TARGET HIT

Consolidating

Hit its key target at the 2024 .6797 high and then backed off.

Would need a firm break of.6800 for another 100 pips on the upside.

Room on the downside for a retracement but that is all it would be unless .6697 is taken out,

Use 6750 as one of those pivotal levels that needs to hold to contain the doiwnside.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

Nvidia holds a 90% share of the Al chip market, with a 93% revenue increase and 150% operating income growth last year. Sales are expected to rise from $55.7 billion in 2024 to $150.6 billion by 2026.

NVIDIA Corporation is scheduled to report its earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, August 28, which is highlighted as a significant earnings event for the week.

Analysts expect strong results driven by high demand for enterprise Al and the company’s key position in the GPU market

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART – 50k-70k?

Impressive rally off the brief sub-50K low but still just a swing within a broad range.

Only a solid 65K+ would put 70K in play again.

Levels are posted on this chart.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – RECORD HIGH STAYS UNTOUCHED

i WILL SIMPLY REPEAT WHAT i POSTED THIS MORNING’

I could have included XAUUSD 2500 as one of those pivotal levels.

Levels:

2543 (record high)

2508 (minor but support while above it)

2500 (key bias setter going forward)

2472 (retracement low0

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq 100 – NDX

Right now the Pivotal is at 19.400.00

Resistances at : 20.045.00, 20.410.00 & 20.850.00

Supports at : 19.465.00 , 19.425.00 & 18.900.00

Fall from the beginning of this month was negated by the very nice rebound, so as long as above those supports, it can continue climbing.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – RECORD HIGH STILL LOOMS

Record high (5673 on this CFD chart) still looms above (not shown on this chart) with the move up so far failing shy oif it.

Does this lead to a retracement or just a consolidation range?

Watch 5600 as this could be the bias setting level.

[SF Monedge]

I believe there is considerable price magnet activity in UsdJpy at 145.25 and if seen again there may be a bit of a directional outcome after orders are worked through.

[Author]

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