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Crude oil up on this headline?
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Next Fed Chair? Stay tunes
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Next Fed Chair?
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Market Update: Waiting for Friday’s Events
Forex: Good setup to run stops but tests of the year-to-date lows in EURUSD and GBPUSD were met with some buying. USD is still more on the offensive but will likely have to wait until after Friday’s jobs report to see if the upside can have legs or not.
US Stocks: Retracements not going far enough to force the bulls to run for cover but US500 and NAS100 are still below levels that need to be broken to negate the risk (scroll below for charts).
XAUUSD: Retreat from 4500 not going far enough to force the bulls to give up the fight but best they can hope for is consolidation unless 4500 is taken out.
BTCUSD: Disappointing in its failure to break 95K but move below 90K so far finding support. Onus on the bull side to re-establish 90K to avoid another squeeze of weak longs.
Wide card key events:
- Timing of Supreme Court tariffs ruling (could be as early as Friday)
- When will President Trump announce his choice for a new Fed Chair?
NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- NAS is on the defensive after stalling bloew the key 25842 level.
- While there are levels of support (see chart) the one bulls do not want to see broken is 25260 as that would open the door to 25000.
- On the upside, back above 25665 would be needed to negate the risk.
NAS100 1 HOUR CHART
FX option expiries for 8 January 10am New York cut
a large one for USD/JPY at the 156.15 level. The pair has been seeing a lot of pushing and pulling all through the week, largely holding between 156 to 157 since Tuesday. The latest dip today is no different, with markets taking on a defensive risk tone in general. Equities fell off yesterday and we’re seeing US futures dip further as Nvidia scrutiny in China continues to grow.
That puts some light downside pressure on the pair but we might not get all the way to the expiries seen above. There is still some support from the 200-hour moving average at 156.46 currently. But amid a further drop during the session ahead, the expiries could play a role in anchoring further declines in European morning trade at least.
There are also modestly large ones for EUR/USD at 1.1660 and AUD/USD at 0.6730. But all else being equal, they may not factor too much into play given a lack of technical significance alongside the prevailing risk mood.
Sterling Traders Should Exercise Caution Over Hopes For Closer U.K.-EU Ties
Sterling investors should avoid being too hasty in pricing in a possible improvement in relations between U.K. and EU, Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister says in a note. A rapprochement is unlikely to happen quickly with access to the EU single market only being granted in exchange for concessions, he says. Moreover, some of the U.K.’s problems such as low productivity began well before Brexit, he says. While sterling would rise if improved access to the EU single market were to materialize, it’s “simply too early to factor in potential positive outcomes.” The U.K. is preparing a bill that would bring the country into alignment with EU law. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3440. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8684 pounds.
BTCUSD Weekly
Bitcoin failed in front of 95K and now we have to see what is going to happen at 87.500
Loss of opens a road for test of 70K
There are two more levels within a reach now : 65K & 53K – later being a last line of defence for BTC for it to be able to continue with another Rally this year.
EURUSD Daily
Pair is in a slowly rising channel with the borders 1.15200 – 1.20150
On the Daily it is quite Bearish – but there is one level that can change it all in a given moment – 1.16350.
Watch that one – it is separating EURUSD from probing deeper.
If lost, we can expect a full blown correction going to at least 1.15200
Jobless claims close to consensus
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Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers
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Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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Of all markets, forex algos seem to live to run stops
With the USD trading generally firmer, let’s take a look at its highs for the week as breaks would be needed to run potential stops. Otherwise, expect more chop awaiting Friday’s key events.
- EURUSD 1.1659
- USDJPY 157.30
- GBPUSD 1.3414
- USDCAD 1.3888 (new high set yesterday and extended today)
- AUDUSD 6670
- NZDUSD .5741 (retested today, no stops)
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