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Market Update
- Forex: USD has caught a bid after spikes in all markets following the US CPI report failed to follow through. USDPY remains firmest with intervention threats as 160 looms above. The anti-dollar EURUSD is pivoting 1.1650, downside more exposed while below it
- US Stocks: Not following through on the post CPI spike that saw US500 set a new record high but pause just below 7000. Scroll below to see US500 and NAS100 updates.
- XAUUSD: Regaining a bid after an earlier dip paused well above 4550 but consolidating while below the newly set record 4630 high.
- BTCUSD: Catching a bid above 92K but bulls need  to take it above 95K to make it more than chop within its range.
- Crude oil: Firmer on Trump threats against Iran and drone attacks on 4 tankers near the Black Sea.
- Looking ahead: Wiil the Supreme Court announce its tariff ruling on Wednesday?
Fed Gov sounding more hawkish than dovish (2028 voter)
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Crude oil ticks up, bond yields tiock down on this Help is on its way headline
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Trump pressuring the Fed raises worries about its future independency 10 year 4.183% last
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Fed remains in wait-and-see mode
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US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- Pause just below 7000 following the US CPI report confirms this psychological level as the key target.
- If 6985 becomes support then a test of 7000 is likely.
- If not, then keeps a bid while above 6960. Below 6960 suggests 7000 is too tough a hill yo climb for today at least. Fallback support, 6950, 6910–25
US500 1 HOUR CHART
US CPI Core beats (0.1 lower vs consensus
Yields down, stocks up, USD slips
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<p style=”text-align: center;”>Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers
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<p style=”text-align: center;”>Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days</p>Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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4 oil tankers hit today
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USDJPY UPDATE
- 2025 high at 158.85 broken, marginally so far (high 159.05)
- Significance is that there is a void above it until the major 161.95 2024 high.
- This is why 159-160 will likely put traders on alert for the BoJ but as noted in the Forex market Snapshot, there should be questions whether the government really objects to a weaker jPY other than the pace of its slide.
- On the downside, watch 158.85 to see if there will be a confirmed breakout. Otherwise, only back below 158 would cool the risk.
- Intra-day support ay 158.50-65.
USDJPY WEEKLY CHART
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
Posted yesterday
While stocks and the dollar have come off the lows and bond yields have slipped off the highs, XAUUSD continues to march higher, extending its record high above 4600.
Will the divergence last?
- Finally some logic with XAUUSD retracing from its new record high back below 4600.
- With that said, XAUUSD keeps its bid while above 4500-4550 with the focus on the high while the top end holds.
- Intra-day resistance at 4600-00 ahead of the 4630 high.
XAUUSDÂ 4 HOUR CHART
<p style=”text-align: center;”>Forex Market Snapshot</p>
The focus is on a weaker JPY, not only vs the dollar but vs other currencies. This includes currencies such as the EUR and CHF, which set record highs vs. the Japanese currency. This followed a weak verbal intervention threat that was quickly shrugged off.Do Japanese officials really object to a weaker JPY or are they simply paying lip service? With the focus on fiscal stimulus and the Nikkei setting a new record high, why should they be concerned other than the pace of the JPY’s slide?
With that said, 159-160 is likely to be a sticky zone with the major 161.95 (2024 high)Â looming above.
For today, watch US CPI which is expected to rebound from a government shutdown distorted result in November.
DAX Hovers Around Record Highs
The DAX in Frankfurt was little changed near record highs of 24,415 on Tuesday, amid some caution ahead of a key US inflation report and the kickoff of the quarterly earnings season among major banks, including JP Morgan.
Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments while also weighing risks to the central bank’s independence.
Among stocks, Symrise surged nearly 7% on plans to divest its terpenes business and launch a large share buyback.
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