[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Tip: Keep your emotions in check when in tight ranges as small moves on a chart can look like large moves.

Example: US500 15-minute chart where a 5.5 point move (see green candle below) looks like it is a lot larger.

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX) UPDATE

• Trend is down heading into yearend but struggling to build further momentum
• Needing a break of 97.78 to build further momentum’
• Needing to regain 98.79 to confirm a break of momentum
• (98.21 only becomes a significant resistance if 97.78 is taken out.
• Note EUR is 57.6% of the index, which is often used as a proxy for the EURUSD so watch how it trades vs. 1.1750 and 1.1800 for a clue.

USDX DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• With no sell stops left to run (unless 4300 is taken out), XAUUSD has clawed its way back up but a ways to go to regain its breakdown levels.
• Back above 4430-50 is what is needed to negate the downside risk and shift the focus back to 4500+.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is trading a touch softer in what has so far been a quiet last full trading day of the year.
• EURUSD is back to around midway within 1.1750-1.1800, lagging GBPUSD as EURGBP trades soft.
• GBPUSD 1.35 has traded for the 5th day in a row, currently above it.
• USDJPY has dipped back below 156 but still above 155.55 support.
• AUDUSD has firmed on the back of a rebound in metals.
• US stocks have so far traded a quiet session as well.
• A key focus will be on the FOMC minutes due at 1900 GMT

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog: Get ready for 2026

Looking Ahead to 2026: More Questions Than Answers for Markets and Policy

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Trading: EURUSD

Glass half empty or half filled?

EURUSD failed to reach 1.1800 (high 1.1789) but retreat bounced off a solid floor around 1.1750 (low 1.1749, last 1.1772)

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• The last full trading day of the year is a hard call so let’s see what this chart is showing.
• So far holding off a retracement risk with a pause above 25378. but needs to take out 25680-25714 to negate the risk and shift it to the elusive 25842 resistance.
• Otherwise, needs to hold 25738 to keep attention away from 25000.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• While the (brief) move below 6901 breaks the upward momentum, it is just a minor retracement unless 6855 is taken out
• A move back above 6936 would be needed to negate a retracement risk and put the 6943 record high at risk again.
• Otherwise, as we head into the last full trading day of the year, it is consolidation while it trades 6955/88 – 6936/43 where 6900 will likely act as a pivot.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

careful …

“Peace hopes dented as Russia says Ukraine tried to attack Putin residence”
Reuters 42 mins ago

Russia accused Ukraine on Monday of trying to attack President Vladimir Putin’s residence in northern Russia, although it provided no evidence to back up an assertion that Kyiv dismissed as baseless and designed to undermine peace negotiations.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• No reason to try and catch a falling knife in a liquidating market day has seen the meltdown pause around 4300. Only below 4300 would put a further squeeze on longs.
• This has potential to form a low but if not then 4257-70 guards the more important 4200 level.
• Meanwhile, pre-end of year selling has been hard to absorb in thinner liquidity and should there be a bounce, assume there are underwater longs lying in wait hoping to get out at breakeven or better.
• Back above 4430 is what is needed to shift the focus back to 4500.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

IF I linked earlier the piece below , I beg your pardon

The tenuous peace between Trump and the $30 trillion US bond market – RTRS

… ” battle of wills is playing out between the administration and investors concerned about the persistently high U.S. deficit and debt levels.

Reflecting those worries, the so-called “term premium” – the extra yield investors demand for holding U.S. debt for 10 years – has once again started to rise in recent weeks.

“Bond markets’ ability to terrify governments and politicians is second to none, and you’ve seen that in the U.S. this year,” … /.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD performing as per the update posted earlier (scroll below) following the top at 1.1789 and the loss of its bid after EURGBP reversed to the downside

Now dependent on 1.1750 holding to contain the downside.

[GVI News]

EURUSD flipflopping with EURGBP

EURGBP 8716 => EURUSD down, GPBUSD just below 1.35

[GVI Forex 2]

Metals meltdown is a classic liquidating market (if you can call a 14% day range in XAGUSD a market) makes this article a must read

How to Identify and Trade a Liquidating Market: A Guide for Active Traders

[Mtl JP]

GOLD

maybe some buyers here against 4300
for me just pure excitement spectacle similar to watching a horror movie

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• AT chart shows 1.1789 as a potential top that would need to move back below 1.1780 to confirm.
• Above 1.1789 is 1.1792-97 resistance.
• Note firmer EURGBP (last 8731).

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Move below 25549 breaks upward momentum and dependent on 25378 holding to keep the downside contained as markets remain at the mercy of pre-new year end flows.
• Below 25738 would put 25000 in play again.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Brief move below 6901 breaks the upward momentum but the level that needs to hold is 6855, above which the move down is just a retracement.
• With pre-new year flows dominating, 6900 will likely act like a pivot while trade is within 6855-6943.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

GOLD (4391 as I type) and i.e. under 4500
is like devil’s open gate to h3ll

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex market is a sideshow to a meltdown on metals (XAUUSD 4410, XAGUSD 73.10 last) and some profit taking (or tax losses) in equities as those trading are at the mercy of end of year flows and position adjustments.

in FX, JPY may be benefiting from some unwinding of carry trades.

[Mtl JP]

CNBC
could; ripples
–
The political divide in Washington could send ripples through the market in the new year
– Dec 28 2025, Sean Conlon

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 8710 (stops below 8712) => 8726 (last)

Market again having more trouble absorbing USD buy side: EURUSD up steady (1,1766), GBPUSD lower (1.3484)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP UPDATE

• Pre-year end flows hitting EURGBP, now dependent on 8712 holding to keep the key 8702 low from being exposed.
• Currently, market is having more trouble absorbing the EURUSD selling offset although it remains above 1.1750 while GBPUSD stays close to 1.35.

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAGUSD UPDATE

• This post last night proved to be a timely on:   Logic says too far, too fast but 80.00 will tell the tale from here.
• Now dependent on 73.55 holding to prevent a loss of momentum and clear path back to 70.00’
• Would need to see 80.00+ for bulls to regain control again and negate the retracement risk.

XAGUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Gold falling victim to pre=new year book squaring flows and as the chart shows, 4430-50 needs to hold to prevent a more serious retracement.
• 4500+ is needed for bulls to regain control and negate the retracement risk while below it.
• Note the Power of the “50” level with the new record high pausing just below 4550 and the subsequent retreat finding support just below 4450.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is trading mixed in relatively quiet pre-year end trading with the focus elsewhere.
• The JPY is a modest overperformer while the AUD and NZD are underperforming as precious metals are hit with profit-0taking (note AUDJPY and NZDJPY).
• EURUSD is about mid-way within 1.1750-1.1800 after finding support above the lower end
• GBPUSD is pivoting 1.35 for the 4th day in a row
• US stocks are modestly lower as well.
• There is a light US data calendar today.

[GVI Forex 2]

From our Become a Better Trader Series

The Market Isn’t Your Enemy: A Critical Mindset Shift Every Trader Must Make

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Quiet start to the last days of the year except a firmer JPY (note crosses as well).

The other exception is XAUUSD (Silver) which has spiked higher (new record 83.71)… watch 80.00 as above it will have talk about $100, below it cools it off. Logic says too far, too fast but 80.00 will tell the tale from here.

[GVI News]

Positive but elusive event risk

Trump believes ‘we have makings of a deal’ to end Ukraine war ahead of crucial Mar-a-Lago meeting with Zelensky

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD into The New Year 2026.

Facts:

–          If EURUSD closes this year above 1.17150 first move in the new year will be Up

–          Resistances: 1.19200, 1.20100 & 1.23300

–          If all of the above comes to life, The Rule is: if a pair rallies Up in the first few weeks of a new year, next prolonged move will be Down.

–          Only Close below 1.14850 would negate this scenario.

Happy New Year 😀

[Author]

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