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Crude oil whipsaw on Trump double talk on Iran
[MARKET UPDATE]: Oil prices sell off as Trump says good talks are being held with Iran, but downside reversed as Trump says bad things will happen to Iran if no deal is made
- US President Trump also warned they may have to take it a step further on Iran, noting they have some work to do.
Brent (J6) fell from USD 71.60 to 70.60 over four minutes before paring to USD 71.50.
Stocks blip, USD and oil dip on Trump Iran headline
US President Trump says good talks are being held with Iran. Need to make a meaningful deal with Iran.
Claims beat (lower)US Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/14) 206 vs. Exp. 225 (Prev. 229, Rev. From 227, Low. 204, High. 235)
Trade deficit miss (widens)
US Balance of Trade (Dec) -70.3B vs. Exp. -55.5B (Prev. -53B, Rev. From -56.8B, Low. -61.5B, High. -46.8B)
Philly Fed beats, prices paid lower
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 16.3 vs. Exp. 8.5 (Prev. 12.6, Low. 5, High. 16)
US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Feb) 38.90 (Prev. 46.90)
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US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: DASH, EBAY, DE, OXY, CHWY, DELL, WMT, TAP, CVNAES -0.1% NQ -0.3% RTY -0.2%Â Â .Mag-7: MSFT +0.3% AMZN -0.2% NVDA -0.2% GOOGL -0.3% AAPL -0.5% META -0.5%Â Â Â TSLA -0.8%
- DASH +10%: Despite EPS, rev. light w/ outlook below exp., as investors appeared reassured by strong order growth & mgmts. confidence in investment strategy
- EBAY +9%: Top & bottom-line beat, issued strong next Q guidance & announced $1.2bln acquisition of Depop from ETSY +14%
- DE +5.5%: EPS, rev. surpassed exp. & raised FY net income
- OXY +4.5%: EPS beat & outlined cost savings, lower capital spending & improved FCF targets for ‘26
- CHWY +3.5%: Upgraded at Raymond James
- DELL +1.5%: Has been added to ‘Tactical Outperform List’ at Evercore
FX option expiries for 19 February 10am New York cut
EUR/USD at the 1.1790-00 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could play a key role in terms of limiting price action on the day. The expiries are likely to act as magnets to pull price action during the session ahead, keeping a more confined range for traders to play with. That at least until they roll off later in the day.
The same applies to the one for USD/JPY at the 155.00 level as well. The expiries could double up as a pull factor to keep price action more limited, even as the upside momentum starts to gain traction after the jump yesterday.
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 19th February 2026-
- US President Trump and his advisors have reportedly indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, NY Times reports. Instead, the US could have bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico.
- European equities lower as Airbus misses on 2026 aircraft deliveries; US equity futures slip.
- Antipodeans gain following recent losses; DXY flat after Wednesday’s advances.
- Bonds hold a bearish bias, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session due to various factors.
- Crude benchmarks and precious metals benefit from growing US-Iran tension, whilst copper lags on weak European sentiment and Chinese holiday.
- US President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economy at 16:00EST/21:00GMT on Thursday.
USDJPY UPDATE
- Those who followed my lead would have taken a (bullish) signal from USDJPY breaking a 5-day pivot around 153.
- 153.06 (Wed low) => 153.75 (stops) => 154.65 (stops) => exposed 155 (high 155.34)
- Was the BoJ in covertly above 155? It wouldn’t surprise me.
- So, 155 is back to being pivotal, Needs to hold 154.60-65 (use 154.50 as a fallback supoport) to keep a bid but only below 153.75 would shift focus back to 153.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- All eyes remain on 5000 (currently below it), which traded for the 6th day in a row today and 8 out of the past 9 days.
- Range over this 9 day period has been 4841 – 5119
- The longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken (i.e. 5000 becomes support or resistance). In the meantime, range traders have been rewarded while bulls will not give up the fight unless the 4841 low is taken out.
XAUUSDÂ DAILY CHART
ETHUSD (1HR)
Ethereum price is now trading below $1,980 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If the bulls remain in action above $1,925, the price could attempt another increase. If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,000 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,935 level. The first major support sits near the $1,925 zone.
Forex Market Snapshot
- The US buildup in the Gulf has raised talk of an increased chance of an attack on .Iran. This has seen some hedge against such a risk ahead of the weekend. With Iran saying it will come back in two weeks with a reply it is not clear why the US would launch a pre-emPtive strike now. In any case gold and crude oil have benefited while global equities have backed off following yesterday’s move higher.
- In forex, the dollar has backed off earlier highs and is currently focused on pivotal levels: EURUSD 1.18, GBPUSD 1.35 while USDJPY is back below 155 in a market likely to stay defensive ahead OF tbe weekend
- US Data due: Trade Balance (Dec), Weekly/Continuing Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Feb), Pending Home Sales (Jan)
AUDUSD (1HR)
The Aussie bounced to 0.7068, recovering after a 0.6% decline overnight. Key support levels are $0.7028 and $0.6897 from the previous lows, with immediate resistance at 0.7097.
Data showed the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a seven-month low of 4.1%, while employment rose 17,800, driven entirely by full-time roles. The upbeat figures reinforced the RBA’s view that the labor market remains tight and pushed markets to price a higher chance of a May hike.
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