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NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- It has been one way down since the failure just above 25000 and 25050 resistance.
- Damage not yet fatal with only a brief break of the recent 24377 low not following through. Below the new low at 24335 would expose 24140 and 23832 with a void below it..
- Some caution would not be a surprise given yesterday’s whipsaw but downside stays at risk as long as sub-25000 trades
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- Barely clinging to a life raft with a low at 6936 following the one-way reversal from yesterday’s head scratching rally that failed around 6900.
- As this chart shows, there is a huge void below 6715-30, making this the last line of defense.
- Only back above 6800 cools the risk.
US500 DAILY CHART
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US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: Cruise liners, Airliners, Lodging, Drone Makers, Energy Stocks, Supertankers, NVDA/AMD, AMZN, MDB, CI, TGT, BBY, T, SE
FX option expiries for 3 March 10am New York cut
USD/JPY at the 157.00 level. However, the expiries don’t tie to any technical significance and may not have too much impact considering prevailing trading sentiment in broader markets. As traders digest the US-Iran conflict and higher oil prices, the dollar side of the equation is dominating and we’re once again seeing slight bids in the dollar today.
It’s very much the resurgence of the petrodollar trade
March 2 Post-Market Earnings Release Stocks
(CRDO) Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd reported a third-quarter revenue of $407 million with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.07, both surpassing the analysts’ consensus estimates of $391 million and $0.94, respectively.
(RIOT) Riot Platforms, Inc. posted record annual revenue of $647.4 million for 2025, up 72% from $376.7 million a year earlier.
(BBAI) BigBear.ai’s Q4 2025 revenue fell 38% to $27.3 million. The net loss improved to $5.8 million, with an adjusted loss per share of 1 cent, missing expectations.
EU flash CPI misses (higher), core misses as well… note data is taken before the spike in energy prices
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- Retracing off its 5419 high with brief breaks of 5260 and the 4 hour trendline so far seeing limited follow through..
- XAUUSD’s retreat when it should be seeing safe haven demand may simply be a case of liquidity needs, selling winners to cover losses or margin needs elsewhere.
- In any case, needs to hold 5200 to avoid a further squeeze and keep a bid pointed higher.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
XBRUSD (BRENT OIL) UPDATE
- Rising oil prices are driving the risk off mood elsewhere.
- XBRUSD extending its high and while above $80, talk will be for a risk to $100 oil.
- I am not aure how important old resistance levels are but these are what charts show: 82.87, 88.,63, 92.43
- Only sub-80.00 would postpone the risk.
XBRUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
- More logic to price action today with equities following the geopolitical crisis script by retreating after yesterday’s head scratching rally off the lows failed to follow through .
- What caught my eye today was while the USD caught a safe haven bid, US bond yields again firmed, suggesting market concerns that rising energy prices will fuel inflation.
- In forex, the EURUSD break of 1.1670 exposes the 1.15s while below it.
- USDJPY has seen some caution (but remains bid) after a verbal intervention threat. In this envrionmnet, any reaction to intervention wouild likely be met with bids below the market.
- CHF is underperformning and not getting the typical safe haven bid. The SNB indicated it is prepared to intervene in the FX market.
- Light US calendar today will keep attention on the reaction to headlines from the Middle East perhaps more than the news itself.
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