[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART – Approaching 1.30

CLEARLY AN OUTPERFORMER (NOTE EURGBP TESTING 2024 LOW)

TARGETING POTENTIALLY 1.3141 AS LONG AS IT STAYS ABOVE 1.2893

STRONGER RISK IF 1.30+ TRADES.

UK CPI on Wednesday, jobs report on Thursday, retail sales on Friday

[michael Calif]

IF  ..  USD rallies that presents another entry point for Long EURUSD

[SF Monedge]

Jay – further, it is why I often include notation of multiple instruments (neural network approach) to add perspective and hopefully be helpful.  After reverse engineering seemingly a thousand indicators in coding, producing my own unique codes (some of which were visually stunning and some ridiculous in the visual output) the final product ended up like a high frequency algorithm with a very simple display.  The original intent was to make it so simple to allocate upon you could do it when exhausted and unable to think with your usual clarity.

Bottom line is yes, like a magnet.  Big money has to revisit certain areas with extremely few exceptions.

[SF Monedge]

Jay – it is order based so yes.  There are occasional times it ends up being close to any number of indicators but absolutely not the same and extremely reliable.  It will coincide at times with a moving average point, other times a stochastic point, other times options orders, other times bollingers, on occasion volume profile, other times you name it.  But if you think you will manufacture by using those things you will not end up with the same result.  My best version was done on Esignal, which you have to pay a lot of money for.  Currently using a hybrid which is not as good but close enough.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – How bid?

A bit if a disappointment as a break of a big figure is usually good for 20-35 pips. Instead it has been sideways watching paint dry afternoon.

Here’;s the story

Bid while above 1.0850

Stronger bid if above 1.09

If 1.0915 is firnly broken, then 1.0980 becomes a target

If 1.09 fails to hold, then it is 1.0850/60-1.0900-10

ECB meets next week

[GVI Forex 2]

Are you saying point of control is like a magnet level?

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks taking off….needed a retracement to setup the fresh run higher

[SF Monedge]

Jay –

Point of control is where the more weighty transactions take place for any given instrument.  While there is no guarantee that those areas will be revisited in the fashion I noted earlier, but the probabilities are very strongly weighted they will.  That is due in part to the fact that large orders from large institutions/entities transact there.  This is based on decades of factors of input for analysis, with the result being solid in terms of probability.  One of the better forms of imagery I could compare it to is a volume profile.  Be advised, this is not a volume profile and you will not find it there.  But in some ways there are similarities.  Having it is step one.  Step two is application that actually works.  Requires dedication.

[GVI Forex 2]

Can you explain the term point of control.

[SF Monedge]

UsdCad 3620 (which is current market) is the point of control in spot, with 7350 the point of control in futures for Canadian Dollar (which is current market).  Regardless of how markets behave up or down, these price levels will be revisited in August.  My preference is the sell side in spot in the 3680-90 zone at present if/when seen.

[SF Monedge]

If you are a participant in EurChf (Eur vs Swiss Franc) my sentiment is to stay with the buy side if it nears the 9720 area.  Selling the pair from current values or a bit higher would be a contra-position.  That said, I have the same sentiment for the pair entering the weekend as UsdChf noted below.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

NO CHANGE, WIDE RANGE 2350-2450

Support as long as above 2377

[SF Monedge]

I prefer to be on the sell side of UsdSwiss Franc for risk management purposes into the weekend.

A German defense industry executive of a major producer of tanks and weaponry, some of which has been shipped to Ukraine, was the target of a Russian assassination plan in recent weeks which did not play out.  When I learned of this I made some phone calls to some old friends and there is legitimate unease within military/defense circles at present.  Moscow has been engaged in cyber attacks, espionage, sabotage, and one aggressive act not publicized in media.

The situation is escalating in Eastern Europe and should be watched closely as it is clear Moscow has zero apprehension to escalate.  One event would cause Euro to shock currency markets to the downside.  At present, some NATO member countries are only paying 60% of their required defense contributions while the US has a dysfunctional Congress and no President or Vice President.

[GVI Forex 2]

U of M misses on downside

Inflation expectations dip 0.1% to 2.9%

[SF Monedge]

I will likely sell UsdCad around 3670/80 if seen.

The US and Canada signed revised the 60 year long standing treaty today whereby Canada received 50% of hydroelectric power generated by the Columbia River Dam and will receive 40% less of that amount going forward beginning in August.  The revision was in response to population demand in the US over time.  Hopefully this counters the graveyard of US oil/gas permits and related production in the US since 2020 and helps to reduce prices a small bit, which obviously soared virtually out of control in recent years.  The treaty (get this) can be unilaterally revised or terminated by either country as of September and/or for the life of the new 20 year term.  — One month.  Oil/gas data up 10am PST.

EurGbp – staying on the sell side from 8920 holds good R/R, you can forgive yourself if the bias changes.  It would require fierce buying over 8940 to change the bias.

[GVI Forex 2]

This is a good time to revisit this article assuming it was the BoJ intervening these past 2 days

Trader Alert: Will the Bank of Japan Intervene and Does Forex Intervention Work?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY ONE HOUR CHART – INTERVENTION DOUBLE BOTTOM?

This is why I love The Amazing Trader

In the heat of battle, if inf act this was another round of intervention, I ran to the chart and as I posted, saw the low yesterday was 157.41

Last now at 158.12

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 30 min

After data situation :

Support : 1.08850 , 1.08750 & 1.08450

Resistance : 1.08950 , 1.09100 & 1.09250

If this Bar closes above 1.08950, we’ll have another run Up.

Be aware of incoming Data in 50 min.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY tests sub-158… 157.41 was yesterday’s low

Will raise talk of intervention

US 10 year back to 4.20% after brief PPI pop

[GVI Forex 2]

Knee jerk reaction and now back to square one after limited follow through.

[GVI Forex 2]

Hotter PPI report

[SF Monedge]

Aussie is firmly planted bid pre-data and would require fierce selling to change the bias in my view.  I am most interested in Canadian Dollar today.

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 4.20% vs 4.23% earlier

Note the correlation with USDJPY (Lower)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY is now down on the day

At a minimum intervention has restored a 2-way risk, potentially even reverse it if USDJPY stays below 160.00-25

[SF Monedge]

I see some things in various metrics that indicate Usd may rally a little post-data, we shall see.

[GVI Forex 2]

Data on deck

US PPI and Univ of Mich consumer sentiment where inflation expectations will be the focus

See our Economic Calendar

[Mtl JP]

sector rotation vs violent rotation …. lol …

when markets get surprised they react. fast

[GVI Forex 2]

What is sectior rotation?

Sector rotation is an active investing strategy that involves moving money between stock sectors to keep it in the best-performing sectors. Investors and traders use this strategy in anticipation of the next stage of the economic cycle, when most industries and their companies will either thrive or struggle….AI Overview

[GVI Forex 2]

July 12 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

A violent rotation from Big Tech into small cap stocks followed the surprisingly benign June U.S. inflation report, while U.S. borrowing rates and the dollar plunged and Japan’s yen stole the currency show.

Morning Bid: Disinflation, rotation and a bruised dollar

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – POWER OF 50

1.0852 breakout targets 1.0916 next as long as it stays above this level.

It is why I csaid earlier 1.0850 sets the bias.

Only below 1.0850 would postppne the threat

The high so far has been 1.0899, only GBPUSDD has so far extended its high..

Above 1.0916 would expose potential for 1.10

[Author]

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