[Mtl JP]

earlier Neel Kashkari says
– recent inflation data raise questions about whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to fully return price growth to the central bank’s 2% target.
–
haven’t read anything from his fireside chat yet

[GVI Forex 2]

Non-correlation day: Lower US bond yields, stocks up, USD mostly higher.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING

Similar to other pairs AUDUSD is trading below highs set after Friday’; US jobs report.

What I like about this type of chart is that the key levels are clear, which gives a framework to trade with shorter time frames.

In this regard, ,6565 needs to hold to keep the .6648  high on the radar while the upside is limited unless the high is taken out,

[Mtl JP]

insanity reigns
US 10-YR 4.441%
—-
DLRx 104.98 . sub 105.40 puppy is now tilting

kashkari chats by some fire at 11:30

and janet peddles off 58 billion in 3yr paper
13:00

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

One Picture – Thousand words

Support at 1.07750 & 1.07650

Resistance at 1.07950 and 1.08200

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 30 MINUTE CHART – 155 TOUGH

As I wrote yesterday 152-155 is sort of a no man’s land and the run at the top end has so far run into a stone wall as can be seen on this chart.

On the downside, supports are between 153.80-00

Note, lower US bond yields have helped cap the upside so far.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 1 HOUR CHART

i assume I am not alone in only trading the JPY very selectively and shying away from being on the short JPY side other than for a scalp.

However, I look at this cross (along with other EUR crosses)for clues trading EURUSD (currently supported by firmer EUR cross offsets).

As for EURJPY, the key level is at 167.38/ Momentum is currently tilted up in this cross but expect caution at any approach to this level.

[Mtl JP]

…”an addict having a tough time without his/her latest fix” …

in tough time getting a fix addict might lower caution, whatever caution thay may have to begin with.

is that an extra exploitable opportunity for the fix peddler ?

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

World markets have returned to levels of almost month ago as fears of an overheated U.S. economy abate even as corporate profit growth remains brisk.

The April miss on new payrolls and the sight of annual wage growth ebbing below 4% have been enough to switch the narrative back to a Federal Reserve which is on hold for now, rather than one that may even consider further interest rate hikes.

Morning Bid: Cooler US takes edginess off markets, UBS jumps

[GVI Forex 2]

With the US economic calendar basically empty of key events this week it is like an addict having a tough time without his/her latest fix.

What we are left with is some revived Fed risk cut expectations as seen by slipping bond yields but little to go after on the dollar downside unless last Friday’s post-US job USD lows are threatened.

Otherwise, a mixed bag with JPY and AUD the underperformers.

EURUSD is holding up while above 1.0752, close to unchanged as it has been the benficaiory of varioius cross flows (note firmer EURGBP).

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4-HOUR CHART – CUP HALF FILLED OR HALF EMPTY?

XAUUSD struggling to regain momentum, after a brief blip above 2328 failed to hold.

This leaves the ranges at 2291-2332, broader at 2277-2352

Taking a cup half-empty or half-filled approach,

–  Finds support as long as 2300+ trades

–  Limited upside as long as it trades below 2350ish

-Revert to shorter time frame charts while within these ranges.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – WHAT THE SAVVY TRADER IS SAYING

I have passed on the view of what I call the “savvy trader” (long-time GV member) and here is another one just emailed to me (note I am only acting as the messenger)

155.66 – 155.92 could be a good area to start a strategic campaign short

closes below 153 on a daily basis would not be good for the bulls

and anticipate an acceleration below 152 and 151

1st target 147.xx from which anticipate a bounce before eventually drilling for much deeper targets.

I suspect that the maximum it can drop is around 126 and then it will range back up
everything must be done with patience

[Mtl JP]

anyone could use a good belly laugh ?

Biden’s economic adviser Jared Bernstein

[Mtl JP]

missed loading long dlrch as my laying order was a tad too low so did not get picked up

now eyeballing short euro here at 1.077ish butting against some converging MA Res on the daily. puppy will likely need to breach 1.0825 to reach for higher.

[GVI Forex 2]

NEXT KEY EVENT RISK’

AUSTRALIA (RBA) RATE DECISION (04:30 GMT) – SEE DETAILED PREVIEW

AUSTRALIA (RBA) RATE DECISION (04:30 GMT) – SEE DETAILED PREVIEW

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – Going for a triple top or….

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf sell side looks decent in Asia tonight for a few pips.  Overall picture is different.  See it long as mentioned earlier for higher ground inevitably.

[michael Calif]

Option Profile originally went SHORT Gold futures above 2400, and remains so

[GVI Forex 2]

SEE WHETHER YOU SAY YES/NO TO ANY OF  THE QUESTIONS ON THIS SELF-EVALUATION TRADING  CHECKLIST

Help! Why Can’t I Make Money Trading?

 

Help! Why Can’t I Make Money Trading?

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HoUR CHART

On this chart, 2291 NEEDS to hold as support followed by a firm break of 2328 would be needed to put 2352 in play again

On the downside, 2291 needs to hold to keep a bid under the market, and thoughts of the 2277 low at bay.

The bottom line, the low is not yet confirmed and only would be if 2328 is firmly taken out.

[Mtl JP]

Tom Barkin

Navigating Data Whiplash
https://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/thomas_i_barkin/2024/barkin_speech_20240506

[SF Monedge]

Looking like EurChf wants to fill the gap at 9800 in time.

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.50% UNCH
ahead of two voter yakkers at top of hour
–
likely to diagnose and maybe prognose on policy outlook post-jobs data

[SF Monedge]

For novices – there is a nice trendline from last weeks low in AudUsd that value is resting on at around 6620, and since Aud has good fundamental one might argue it would move higher.  You must pay attention to the bigger picture though.  If you look at larger time frames of analysis, 6660 could end up being a solid resistance area for bulls.  AND it has the mark of the beast on it!

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 30 MINUTE CHART

Trades bearish while below 1,3697 but trapped as long as it stays above 1.3647  (Power of 50) level.

Looking at major levels (daily chart) they do not come in until the mid-1.35s and resistance in the 1.37s.

 

 

[SF Monedge]

See EurJpy 167 and possibly 168 being revisited in coming days as a likelyhood.

[SF Monedge]

I wouldn’t think of selling equities until OEX options gets to around 2480 and its important to realize that Chinese equities have a tailwind that appears likely to stick based on the profile of inflows.  That means odds are stacked to buy USD when it gets there.  Maybe a day or two.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART

EURJPY correcting off the 164.00 intervention led low. This is the key level on the downside but only a move back above 167.38 would confirm a near-term low is in.

These are the key levels on this chart, anything in between is just minor.

Note, BoJ interventions, at a minimum, have restored a two-way risk although it has been in USDJPY and not on JPY crosses.

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael can yoiu email me pols tks [email protected]

[michael Calif]

…  just for input , Option Profile on USD futures remaions SHORT as it declines from 106.00

[Author]

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