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Market Update
- US stocks backing off from earlier highs but so far with limited follow through as indices trade within local ranges.
- EURUSD bouncing from an apparent defense of 1,15 while commodity currencies trade softer but with limited follow through, including AUD after firming earlier ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision.
- XAUUSD (GOLD) continues to pivot 4000, currently trading just above it.
- BTCUSD extending its slide
ISM PMI miss, prices paid dips, empoyment up
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S&P PMI revised up
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ISM PMI
In a US data starved market, all eyes will be on the ISM PMI report (S&P final Global PMI revision out ahead of it).
Markets will be hyper-sensitive to any surprises in the data (e.g. print above 50).
See consensus forecasts in our Economic Data Calendar
Amazon shares spike higher, pulling indices up with it on this headline
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Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers
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Retail investors ‘retreat’ to $98.5K: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin BTCUSD starts November with a dip to $107,000 as traders brace for further support retests.
· Bitcoin price action gives bulls a grim sense of deja vu as weekend gains evaporate and downside liquidity grows.
· November seasonality calls for serious BTC price gains, but so far, there is no sign of relief.
· US-China trade deal hopes are sustaining stocks, while crypto fails to join the party as Fed rate-cut nerves return.
· Institutional demand reaches seven-month lows compared with the newly mined BTC supply.
· Bitcoin retail investors are in retreat, as data suggests that $110,000 prices may be unsustainable due to low network activity.
FX option expiries for Monday 3 November (10am New York cut)
USD/JPY expiries remain heavily concentrated near the 150 strike — a key psychological and technical level — while notable euro and sterling interests at 1.1450 and 1.3100 could help anchor ranges into the New York cut.
· EUR/USD: 1.1450 (€771.9m), 1.1400 (€686m)
· USD/JPY: 150.00 ($1.13bn), 152.50 ($401.3m), 151.50 ($385.4m)
· AUD/USD: 0.6600 (A$338.6m)
· GBP/USD: 1.3100 (£468m), 1.3350 (£372.1m)
· EUR/GBP: 0.8775 (€300.3m)
· USD/MXN: 18.60 ($355.9m)
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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Now that Nov 1 date has passed, pressure growing to resolve the shutdown
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XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- Battle for 4000 continues
- Pattern continues: 4000 traded 6 days in a row, last 4 following the low at 3886 after test of the upside today paused below 4035 (high 4028)
- The longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move (in the direction of the breakout) once the pattern is broken.
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
- The dollar is holding its late October gains in a cautious start to the new month.
- One focus is on EURUSD and the pivotal 1.15 level, exposed while below 1.1520.
- GBP is following the EUR while EURGBP trades on the soft side as its focus looks ahead to the BoE meeting later in the week.
- USDJPY remains firm but consolidating around 154 after last week’s breakout above 153.27 and subsequent pause below 154.50.
- CHF is underperforming
- Finally some US data today (i.e. PMIs) for data starved news algos.
- Elsewhere, US stocks are modestly higher, gold continues to pivot $4000, Bitcoin is down, crude oil is not showing much net reaction to OPEC+
US equity futures open higher
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Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News
OPEC+ small output Dec hike, pause in Q126, Japan closed
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XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
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- Battle for 4000
- Pattern: 4000 traded 5 days in a row, last 3 following the low at 3886
- The longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move (in the direction of the breakout) once the pattern is broken.
- GOLD bulls not likely to give up the fight unless forced out by margin calls or a firm XAUUSD break of 3886.
XAUUSD DAILY CHART
USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX)
- Trend up
- Momentum up while above 98..61
- 100.30 is next target but 100.00 along with EURUSD 1,15, both psychological, likely most important whether USDX can build more momentum
- EURUSD (57.6% of the index) has been more of a laggard with USDJPY (13.6%) and GBPUSD (11.9%) more of a factor.
- In any case, watch EURUSD 1.15 as it will determine whether or not USDX makes a run at 100.00
USDX DAILY CHART
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The Path of Least Resistance: How to Identify Forex Trends Like a Flowing River
BTCUSD (BITCOIN)
- Still feeling the effects of the October 10-11 plunge from 126000 to 103500.
- Down about 5% in October, first loss for this month since 2018 but still up 18% on the year.
- Current range around 106000-=116000 with110000 likely to act as a psychological pivot
- Chart: Shows solid support around 106000 but to break the down momentum and build on the higher low around 108500, 111552 would need to be taken out.
BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART (right click on chart to open fullscreen in a new tab)
Newsquawk US Stock MArket Wrap
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