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USDJPY UPDATE
- Is the FX market finally waking up to expectations of no Fed rate cut in December?
- USDJPY trying for a breakout above 155.00-04, which would put it in no man’s land with a void until above 158.
- Expect some caution over the likely risk of verbal intervention but given the new government’s focus on stimulus to the economy, the pace more than level would be the concern.
- In any case, 155 is clearly pivotal, strong bid above it, buy on dips bias while above 154.40-50.
- Also, when USDJPY moves suddenly, there is generally a cross involved so watch to see any signs of an offset flow elsewhere.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- Completed a 61.8% retracement (61.8% = 25365 vs. 25685 high (always give some leeway given volatility and large denominator in NAS100),.
- This leaves it in limbo and consolidating as long as it stays above Friday’s 24541 low awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report.
- Question to consider: Who wants to be short NAS heading into Nvidia given its history of earnings beats although this time the bar is set high.
- Meanwhile, 25000 will remain pivotal in determining NAS100’s eventual fate.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
Cautious Fedspeak
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US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- Early rally fizzled after a pause below 6792 = 61.8% of 6880 => 6650 (a level cuted at Friday’s close and yes the Sunday night open) above which is needed to make it more than just a retracement.
- Otherwise, US500 still trading on the defensive but consolidating while above Friday’s 6650 low awaiting Nvidia earnings after Wednesday’s close.
US500 1 HOUR CHART
Data beat
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Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers
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EURGBP UPDATE
- Up momentum broken so question is whether it can build momentum to the downside.
- First step would be a solid move below 8796 to target 8758-63
- If not, back above 8800-10 is needed to slow the risk, above 8829 to negate it.
Impact on spot: Tug-of-war between GBPUSD (up) and EURUSD (down)… also note similar pattern with firmer GBBJPY
EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART
BTC price bull market lost? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin BTCUSD starts a new week with the bull market at stake as BTC price predictions diverge wildly.
Bitcoin traders are stuck between hope and capitulation as BTCUSD returns to its yearly open level.
Price eyes a key “magnet” in the form of an old CME futures gap left over from April.
The loss of a key trend line ushers in comparisons to historical bear markets, with a support reclaim far off.
Bitcoin is looking more like a “leveraged tech stock” as its gold correlation disappears.
Crypto sentiment sets joint 2025 lows, deep within “extreme fear.”
BTC price roundtrips 2025 gainsBitcoin fell back to its yearly open level into Sunday’s weekly close, dipping under $93,000
FX option expiries for 17 November 10am New York cut
The resurgence in risk trades in US trading on Friday remains the key theme to take note of. That as risk sentiment continues to be the number one driver in dictating price action since last week. A strong rebound in the end helped to salvage what could have been an ominous week for Wall Street, though tech shares will remain under heavy scrutiny ahead of Nvidia’s earnings this week.
As such, major currencies will continue to revolve mostly around how risk sentiment fares still for the time being.
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News
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USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX)\
In a market hyper focused on interest rates, a shift towards a no change by the Fed in December has so far had only a limited impact but bears watching.
Two forces at play:
1) Momentum tilted down while below 99.79 but break of a 7 day (red candles) down pattern suggests a loss of momentum (above 99.79 puts 100.41 in play again).
2) Bigger picture: While above 98.59, move down off the 100.41 can still be viewed as a retracement.
Note, USDX is often look at it as a proxy for the EURUSD (57.6% of the index)
USDX DAILY CHART
Forex Market Snapshot
- Mood starting out with the dollar generally firmer with the CAD firmer on respective crosses in cautious trading as markets look ahead to key events this week.
- In this regard, Nvidia earnings are likely to overshadow US data, which will either be seen aa old or distorted by the shutdown. This doesn’t mean there won’t be some volatility around data releases but that it will be hard draw conclusions from it.
- US stocks are up to set a risk on start to the week but off highs.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- Similar to US500, may see some consolidation to start the week with bulls hoping Nvidia earnings mid-week will throw a lifeline ro tech shares.
- To ease technical risk, 25265 – 61.8% of 25768 => 24451 would need to be broken with the daily trendline above
- nI any case, 25000 likely to stay pivotal
NAS100 DAILY CHART
Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News
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BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
On the defensive but getting a late end of week reprieve from the bounce in US stocks.
Consolidation range: 93940-97395, too tight to last for long.
Take your cue from whether BTCUSD establishes below 95000 (next major support is not until 74000—75000) or regains 98000 to put 100000 back in play.
In any case, keep an eye of the correlation with risk off/risk asset (e.g. weaker stocks = weqaker bTC)by howe US stocks trade.
BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART
BTCUSD Weekly
BTC is hovering just above Channel Support line at 93.500
Real issue here is that it lost sharper Uptrend line at 97.135 – so put aside all the speculations and hopes of sudden Secret Whale Buyout – this is physical …pure gravity…
97.825 is representing a Resistance for coming week – if BTC cannot go above it, situation will be crystal clear : Target would be waiting at 69.500
There are few additional supports : 89.000, 81.165 & 74.395
EURUSD Daily – Start of the week
EUR closed last week without obvious pattern for the coming days.
There are two options in front of us:
1. Support at 1.15900 holds ( or even better 1.16100) and Resistance at 1.16550 gives a way
In such a case a road would be open on Monday for 1.17000 and ultimately test of 1.17300
2. EUR stays short of 1.16500 and takes out support at 1.15900 – test of 1.15600 would subsequently follow.
So that is the bracket that we can expect EURUSD to play early next week : 1.15600 – 1.17500
I am currently reasonably bullish on EUR ( even it is against my nature 😀 , but keep in mind that 1.16550 is Monthly high for now…
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