[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 4 November 10am New York cut

There is just one to take note of on the day

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1525 level. It’s not one that ties to any technical significance but could just play a part in holding price action a little, though the downside momentum since last week remains very much intact. As such, I don’t see the expiries having all too much impact especially with the risk mood looking fairly nervous and defensive ahead of European trading today.

The rejection of the 100-day moving average continues alongside the break of the October low of 1.1542, allowing for the downside momentum to stretch further for now. The end July lows near 1.1400 will be a key target to watch on any continuation of that.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX)

• 3 month high above 100.00 as EURUSD breaks below 1.15
• Watch EURUSD 1.15 (EUR 57.6% of the index) to see if the move above 100 will hold.
• Next key resistance: 100.30 (EURUSD shows a void to 1.1390 while below 1.15)

>USDX DAILY CHART<

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD UPDATE

Big picture:

Failure to regain 1.3137 (also a key intra-day level) leaves A POTENTIALLY TOUGH 1.30 standing in the way of a big void on the downside, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE BOE DECISION ON THURSDAY.

Intra-day low 1.3059 (use 1.3050-59 as a support zone)

Watch EURGBP .8800 as a GBP sentiment indicator to see whether GBPUSD stays a leader or a laggard.

GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

Why is USDJPY weaker?

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[GVI Forex 2]

As we have been noting, pressure to end the shutdown will build after Nov 1

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[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

A bit of a disappointment by not benefiting from the risk off mood.

To repeat:

• Battle for 4000 continues as it trades at this level for the 7th day in a row
• The longer this pattern around 4000 goes on the greater the risk of a directional move (in the direction of the breakout) once the pattern is broken.
• See chart for levels.

XAUUSD  1 HOUR CHART (right click to open a full screen chart in a new tab)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY UPDATE

Why is USDJPY trading weaker (JPY firmer) today?

• Unwinding of carry trades, both in FX and in equities with JPY as the funding currency along with quasi verbal intervention combined to push JPY higher.
• In any case, it has been a liquidating market so watch how equities trade today
• Chart: Below 153.65 trades bearish. Above it would put 154 back in play.
• Not seen on this chart is 153,27, the former breakout level on the upside and now dependent on It holding to contain the downside. Otherwise, little on chart until 152.15.

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is trading generally firmer except vs. the JPY as stocks tumble overnight to set a risk off mood. There was no apparent catalyst for the sharp drop in equities that has seen indices trade sharply lower ahead of the US opening
• EURUSD briefly broke 1.15 with the level back in play for a potential options defense after a bounce off the low failed to follow through.
• Weakest on the board are GBP, AUD and NZD.

[GVI Forex 2]

With EURUSD 1,15 options strike level exposed, this article is a must read

Understanding Forex Options Defense: How Big Players Protect Key Levels and How You Can Trade It

[GVI Forex 2]

RBA ANNOUNCEMENT: Focus will be on more than just the rate decision

See detailed RBA preview

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD UPDATE

• Focus on the RBA decision where it would take a surprise to break the 6440-6628 range
• Expect chop while within 6500-6600. with the bottom end most important as a pivotal level.

AUDUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Stock Market Wrap

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Watch 26000, traded 5 days in a row in a compressing range bounded by 25905=26158.
• Break of this pattern around 26000 will give the next directional signal.

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[Belgrade Bobby]

Tesla Inc. Stocks – TSLA

Tesla hit a new high at 474.07 and now it goes for a previous all time high at 488.55.

Break above would lead it towards Channel resistance line at 517.60

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRP Ledger Outperforms as Q3 Report Reveals Massive Network Growth

This surge reflects a larger trend emerging within the XRP ecosystem, one centered on liquidity and the integration of real-world assets.

Ledger might outperform, but if 1.8945 lost next train stop would be in 1.5500 area…

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Battle for 4000 continues as it trades at this level for the 6th day in a row, last 4 following the low at 3886
• Don’t be complacent
• Stay alert.
• The longer this pattern around 4000 goes on the greater the risk of  a directional move (in the direction of the breakout) once the pattern is broken (watch 4046 on top)

XAUUSD  1 HOUR CHART

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc. Stocks

Supports: 7.25, 7.15 & 7.05

Resistances: 7.60, 7.85 & 8.02

Now NIO has a chance to take out 8.02 and target 9.60, which if surmounted open a clear way towards 16.20

[GVI Forex 2]

Fed’s Cook on the fence

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[GVI Forex 2]

jP, it is hard for markets to have a rate conviction without US data.

It is also the last FOMC meeting before voting members rotate on January 1, which makes it a tough call without data and a mixed set of views.

As for trading today, note price action in GBPUSD after it failed below 1.3165 (level cited below) at 1.3162

[Mtl JP]

Still on Deck
–
13:30 – BoC’s macklem holds a Fireside Chat
14:00 – Fed’s cook yaks “on Economy and Monetary Policy”

[Mtl JP]

GVI 4:13 and 1:36 / seems like the current tug of war is still about relative cuts

ECB is going out of its way signalling NO cut(s) and despite jerome’s casting a pal on dec cut and players having adjusted lower their betting on dec, but not to zero which means that the lurkers may still force a reversal in dlr’s current “mis”fortune.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• • A day about ranges
  • Pause below 6890 followed by a pause above 6815 maintains the range within 6800-6900

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Mildly supportive for equities

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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD UPDATE

• • Firmer GBP crosses helping to give GBPUSD a bid BUT so far yet to clear the 1.3150 (“power of “50”) level.
  • Resistance at 1.3165 caps the upside while below it.

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

• US stocks backing off from earlier highs but so far with limited follow through as indices trade within local ranges.
• EURUSD bouncing from an apparent defense of 1,15 while commodity currencies trade softer but with limited follow through, including AUD after firming earlier ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision.
• XAUUSD (GOLD) continues to pivot 4000, currently trading just above it.
• BTCUSD extending its slide

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• • Brief spike on the Amazon headline not following through with a pause below 26168 resistance.
  • This leaves NAS100 more on the defensive and needing to hold above 25905 or risk ;ower.

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI miss, prices paid dips, empoyment up

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[GVI Forex 2]

S&P PMI revised up

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