[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP UPDATE

• If you trade EURUSD and/or GBPUSD, don’t ignore EURGBP, especially in this last full week of the year when real money flows can dwarf the spec side. At times they move in the same direction but at a different pace and other times in the opposite direction, like a tug-of-war.

Update

• EURUSD run to 1.18 was partly fueled by EURGBP 8754 v=> 8787 and EURUSD back down to 1.,1750 was fueled by EURGBP 8787 => 8760.
• Currently, market is having more trouble absorbing the EURUSD sell side of the cross=, the reverse of what happened earlier.

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1753 —– 50 magical magnet

I think it s a qtn of wheather one is a scientist (something like a kinetist examining a road accident) OR an intuitivist / believer

[GVI Forex 2]

US threatens retaliation vs. EU

(Right click on image to open in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Pause above 4257 keeps the bid bias but faces a tough 4253 resistance blocking the record 4380 high.
• Call it consolidation unless either side of 4257-4353 is taken out.
• Intra-day range: 4271-4335

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

• Last full week of the year has not disappointed with plenty of volatility but struggling with follow through. US data releases suggest markets are more sensitive to misses than beats.
• USD is weaker but off lows as it trades with mixed follow though. USDJPY trading below 155, EURUSD briefly tested 1.18+ before retreating  EURGBP continues to drive GBPUSD, cross currently lower and creating a tug-of-war with the EURUSD>
• US stocks trading choppy with US500 and NAS100 struggling to solidly regain 6800 and 25000.
• US bond yields are about flat on the day after a whippy day so far.
• XAUUSD is consolidating with a bid between 4257/71 and 4354
• BTCUSD steadying but remains below 88K

 

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1769
–
50 magnet / pull force of a magnet is measured in either likos or pounds.
Its “magic” is immesurable by common mortals , I think.

[Mtl JP]

CNBC
Stocks fall after delayed jobs figures paint weak picture of economy: Live updates

“…Odds of a Fed rate cut next month didn’t change following the latest jobs figures, as the CME FedWatch Tool still showed little chance of another reduction in January. Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in a 24% chance of a rate cut next month, the same as a day ago….”

[Mtl JP]

howdy friend

“Hassett says Fed independence is ‘really important’ and chair candidates shouldn’t be disqualified for being Trump’s friend” – on cnbc

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.18037 HoD on my toy
–
1.1787 atm, some pullback as playrs likely bagging some profits from their mid 1.1t-een and leaving the chase after 1.1818 for later.

I mm biased,
likely range for now between 1.17 and 1.18

[GVI Forex 2]

FX market ignored the blip up in yields but reacted to the slip after the PMI data… EURUSD tests 1.18, just barely above and now back below it.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

Hope for the bulls?

• As long as the 6787 double bottom holds and 6800+ trades BUT
• … the post jobs report high at 6831 would need to be broken to shift the focus from 6800

US500 15 MINUTE CHART

[Mtl JP]

1.1799 go after 1.1818 ?

[Mtl JP]

1.1791 currently toying with days high

THE qtn now is will it or wont it …

[GVI Forex 2]

S&P Flash PMIS miss (key concern cited is rising costs)

(Right click on image to open in a new tab)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

Same question: Is the low in?

• Low is in as long as 24820 holds but would need to break the steep trendline and then regain 25398 to fully negate the risk.
• Meanwhile, 25000 is pivotal (above cools risk, below revives it)

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

As I have noted many times. Intra-day correlations work until they stop working.

10-year 4.191% BUT USD (down) is not following.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

Is the low in?

• • Bounce off 6773 support (red line) a potential floor but a break of 6870 would be needed to fully negate/reverse the risk.
  • Meanwhile, 6800 is clearly pivotal (above cools risk, below revives it).

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Correlation? 10 year slips to 4.176% => USD follows

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1757 (as I type)
–
puppy has two price-pricepoints that the player collective is eyeballing:
1.18 – psychological one
1.1818 – sept high

Q now (i.e. post us jobs and retail sales numbers) is what fuel would punch the price to target both ?

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields up after initial dip on data… USD following… watch yields to see if correlation holds if yields slip back

[Mtl JP]

98.047 down-0.262 (-0.27%) at 8:39 AM EST
US 10-yr 4.174% down-0.008 at 8:40 AM EST

so far shows that players were not exactly caught wrong-footed

[GVI Forex 2]

US jobs report: Whipsaw reaction should not be a surprise given distortions

(Right click on image to open in a new tab)

<

1. Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

CNBC f/page
–
“Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, more than expected, delayed jobs numbers show
Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, more than expected, delayed jobs numbers show
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 45,000 in November as the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%.”

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

Bitcoin is still on defensive , with 80K & 70K as possible destinations for now.

90K & 95K acting as strong resistances.

For Today – as long as it stays below 88.500 it will continue testing lower.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

And here we are – just in front of very important 1.17800 resistance.

Is EUR manages above it, 1.19900 would start to act as a magnet and next target.

Supports: 1.17500, 1.17300 & 1.17150

Intraday – Pressure is very much UP

 

[GVI Forex 2]

ADP weekly jobs up… little impact waiting for US NFP

(Right click on image to open in a new tab)

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

Technical readings clashing with peasants’ live only once attitude

Consumers are feeling gloomy about the economy. Here’s why they’re spending anyway
By Melissa Repko, Gabrielle Fonrouge – cnbc

As IF it were a new phenomenon, LoL

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Gainers

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Losers

[Mtl JP]

Is trading art or science ?
–
Reuters
Delayed US employment reports expected to show softening labor market
Summary
– Nonfarm payrolls are forecast increasing 50,000 in November
– Employment is expected to have declined in October due to federal government job losses
– Unemployment rate is estimated to come in at 4.4% in November
– There will be no jobless rate for October because the government shutdown prevented the collection of data

[Author]

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