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Stocks Fall Pre-Bell as Investors Gauge Renewed US-China Trade Tensions
US benchmark equity indexes were trending lower before Monday’s opening bell as investors weigh renewed tensions between the US and China over tariffs.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% in premarket activity, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.4%, while the Nasdaq was off 0.6%. The indexes finished the previous trading session mixed, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 posting their biggest monthly gains in May since November 2023.
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Monday said the US violated the trade truce reached between the two countries in Switzerland and vowed to protect its interests.
Last month, the US and China agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other’s imports for 90 days. However, US President Donald Trump on Friday accused China of violating the pact. “China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, has totally violated its agreement with us,” he said in a social media post.
US Treasury yields moved slightly higher in premarket action, with the two-year rate rising 0.4 basis point to 3.92% and the 10-year rate inching up 2.2 basis points to 4.4%.
Monday’s economic calendar has the final Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing Index for May at 9:45 am ET, followed by the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for the same month and the construction spending report for April at 10 am.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan is scheduled to speak at 10:15 am, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 12:45 pm.
Shares of Moderna MRNA rose 5.5% premarket as the company said the US Food and Drug Administration approved its new COVID-19 vaccine. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) skyrocketed 32%, Steel Dynamics (STLD) gained 13%, while Nucor (NUE) was up 14% as Trump reportedly said on Friday that he planned to increase duties on imported steel and aluminum to 50% from 25%.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) rose 11% following its better-than-expected quarterly results last week. Tesla (TSLA) fell 1.9%, while Palantir (PLTR) was down 1.5%.
Campbell’s (CPB) and Science Applications International (SAIC) are scheduled to release their latest quarterly results before the bell.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.6% to about $63 a barrel before the open. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, or OPEC+, on Saturday decided to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in July.
Gold increased 1.7% to $3,370 per troy ounce, while bitcoin dipped 0.7% to $104,371.
SP 500 Chart
SPX: S&P 500 Futures Drop as Tariff Story Posts Surprise Twist — White House Won This Round
Key points:
· S&P 500 futures take a tumble
· Markets reacts to fresh tariff jitters
· Trump wins the battle, not the war
Turns out, it might not be illegal for Trump to slap the globe with tariffs — a federal appeals court said Thursday the duties are staying for now. Everyone, back to the other side of the boat.
Stock Futures Dive on Risk-Off Return
· Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 index were looking a bit sour Friday morning as traders were grappling with the return of massive uncertainty.
· Just when markets thought the tariff saga had been clipped by the courts, the plot flipped. A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that President Trump’s sweeping trade duties can stay — at least for now.
· S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.3% as Wall Street scrambled to reprice what’s still a very active trade war front. Nasdaq futures and Dow Jones futures were also lower by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
White House Winning the Battle
· The US Court of International Trade threw a wrench in Trump’s trade machine on Wednesday, declaring his global tariffs illegal under the 1977 emergency powers law.
· But on Thursday, a higher federal appeals court reversed course — letting the tariffs stay while the administration threw down the gauntlet and explored ways to win the war, not just the battle.
Tariffs Back on the Menu
· The sudden shift means Trump’s 50% tariffs on EU goods and extended duties on Chinese imports are still very much a global threat — adding back a layer of uncertainty that markets had just started to shake off.
· Now the ball is in the White House’s court. Trump and his squad are reportedly exploring alternate legal justifications to keep the tariffs alive, including more traditional Congressional trade powers.
NAS100 (NASDAQ)
Trying to pick a top in the NAS has been like stranding in front of a freight train.
However, anything other than a MOVE through 22224 (record high) would be a disappointment
High extended to 21813 but failure to firmly establish 21500+ has shifted the focus to what levels need to hold to keep this leg up intact
Key level: 21283 (low 21256)… break would need to be followed by a run through 20090 to confirm
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART
US Equity Indexes Mixed as Trade Court Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs Takes Shine Out of Nvidia’s Q1 Results
US equity indexes traded mixed after midday Thursday as Nvidia’s NVDA fiscal Q1 results overnight boosted technology and as investors evaluated the net outcome of a trade court ruling, casting doubt over the legal basis of the Trump administration’s tariff negotiations.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5% to 19,192.1, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to 5,908.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed at 42,109.8. All sectors except communication services rose intraday. Technology, home to Nvidia NVDA, and utilities led the gainers.
Nvidia shares jumped 4% intraday, among the top gainers on the Nasdaq, the Dow, and the S&P 500, after the chipmaker overnight reported higher fiscal Q1 non-GAAP earnings and sales. BofA Securities raised its price target on Nvidia to $180 from $160. Morgan Stanley said Nvidia is “outgrowing” expectations and competition even in the middle of supply constraints.
Analysts expect that a US federal court ruling challenging a series of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will weaken Washington’s position in trade talks. But, they also said the administration has other tools to push through the tariffs agenda.
Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 6.1 basis points to 4.42% and the two-year traded 5.5 basis points lower at 3.94%.
In economic news, pending home sales fell more than projected in April as elevated mortgage rates dampened buyer enthusiasm, the National Association of Realtors said. The forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings slid by 6.3% month-over-month, compared with a 1% decline that analysts had modelled in a Bloomberg survey. On an annual basis, pending transactions dropped 2.5%.
Meanwhile, the deceleration in US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised to 0.2% in Q1 from the 0.3% advance estimate of the slowdown, beating expectations for no revision in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. GDP grew 2.4% in Q4.
Nasdaq chart
IXIC: Nasdaq Futures Surge After US Trade Court Blocks Trump’s Tariffs. White House Vows to Fight
Key points:
· Nvidia +6.45%
· Nasdaq futures pop 2%
· Markets praise court block
· Not going down without a fight
Trump took it too far with his game of tariffs, the US Trade Court ruled. The administration said it’s going to appeal. Clash incoming?
Checkmate… White House
· It’s not every day the courts checkmate the White House — but that’s exactly what happened Wednesday, and the markets responded appropriately — by throwing a party.
· Futures on the Nasdaq Composite IC ripped higher by 2% in premarket trading after a US court struck down nearly all of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, calling them illegal and calling out Trump for overstepping his authority.
· Futures on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones also rallied — the broad-based peer added 1.6% and the exclusive 30-member club gained more than 500 points, or 1.3%.
🧐 Making Sense of It All
· The US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) when he slapped tariffs on just about everyone. The White House immediately filed a notice to appeal the decision.
· The decision, made by a three-judge panel in Manhattan, called out the administration’s overuse of the “economic emergency” label to justify broad levies.
· Is this the turnaround we’ve all been waiting for? Does this mean that Apple AAPL could now breathe freely without fears of business implosion? Shares of the iPhone maker led the charge ahead of the opening bell, up 3.5%.
· But also, Tesla TSLA added more than 2% and Nvidia NVDA rallied 5% on better-than-expected earnings figures despite a potential $10 billion hit to revenue due to a China ban.
· What else is going on? The Federal Reserve released its minutes from the latest meeting three weeks ago. Officials cite in the summary rising inflation concerns that may lead to interest rates that are higher for longer. US GDP data is on deck for today and the Fed’s inflation gauge, PCE, is on tap for tomorrow.
·
Nvidia 143.50USD
+8.69+6.45%
Global Markets
Overnight review
U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly weaker open, while markets in Asia and Europe were mixed ahead of Nvidia’s earnings later Wednesday.
Long-dated Treasury yields were on the rise again after a weak auction of Japanese government bonds resurfaced investors’ concerns about government debt.
· Weak demand at Japan’s 40-year government bond auction sparked a renewed jump in ultra-long JGB yields, with some spillover to other markets. “Global yields are giving back some of their gains this morning,” said market strategists at Deutsche Bank Research. The 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields were last up four basis points to 4.474% and 4.981%, respectively, according to LSEG.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier pledged to closely monitor moves in the super-long bond sector. The 30-year Japanese bond yield last traded at 2.905%, up six basis points, while the 40-year yield rose four basis points to 3.348%.
· U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly weaker open after the S&P 500 rose 2.1%, its biggest jump since May 12, and other major indexes gained in Tuesday’s session. Early in Europe, S&P 500 futures nudged down 0.1% with similar moves in Dow Jones Industrials. Nasdaq futures were flat ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.
· Stocks in Asia ended mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was flat amid focus on the Bank of Japan’s policy strategy. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5% and China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite held steady. South Korea’s Kospi ended 1.2% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.1% in morning trading, France’s CAC 40 increased 0.1% and Germany’s DAX climbed 0.2%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2%.
· The DXY Dollar Index was recently up 0.1% to 99.6650 against a basket of major currencies after a rebound in the Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence survey for May. Still, the dollar continues to face downside risks in the near term as concerns over slowing U.S. economic growth and the budget deficit persist, ING analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note.
· Brent crude rose 0.7% to $64.02 a barrel. Gold futures were recently up 0.6% at $3,319.30 a troy ounce, recouping some losses incurred earlier in the week.
HANGSENG Index
NAS100
Who would believe that with all the tariff chaos and volatility we would be talking about NAS100 challenging its record high (22224).
The obstacle is the 21500 area (21493) as firmly above it would put 22224 on the radar..
In any case, expect support on dips while 21090/21140 holds as support.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART’
Dollar, stocks fall as Trump targets Europe and Apple in tariff threats
Key points:
· Trump labels the EU ‘difficult to deal with’
· Dollar down, has weekly loss
· Gold, yen and government bonds gain on safe haven demand
· Apple shares knocked by direct new tariff threat
Major stock indexes and the dollar eased on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed his latest trade threats, recommending 50% tariffs on European Union imports from June 1 and considering a 25% tariff on any Apple iPhones made outside the U.S.
Shares of Apple AAPL ended 3% lower, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished weaker but off session lows. European shares also ended lower.
The dollar index DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, hit a three-week trough. For the week, the dollar was down 1.9%, on track for its biggest weekly percentage decline since early April.
The dollar sank 1% versus the Japanese yen USDJPY, while the euro EURUSD rose 0.8% against the dollar.
Government bonds in the United States and Europe climbed on safe-haven buying after sustaining heavy pressure this week from rising concerns about Trump’s tax cuts and the White House’s ballooning debt pile.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI fell 256.02 points, or 0.61%, to 41,603.07. The S&P 500 SPX dropped 39.19 points, or 0.67%, to 5,802.82 and the Nasdaq Composite IXIC slipped 188.53 points, or 1.00%, to 18,737.21.
All three major U.S. stock indexes had fallen more than 1% early in the day.
For the week, the Dow lost 2.47%, the S&P 500 fell 2.61%, and the Nasdaq shed 2.48%.
The 30-year U.S. bond yield (US30YT=RR), which on Thursday hit the highest since October 2023, fell in response to fresh tariff fears.
The yield was down 2.2 basis points at 5.042%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes US10Y fell 3.6 basis points to 4.517%.
Gold, which has surged in recent months as economic anxiety has risen, was higher. Spot gold GOLD rose 2.14% to $3,364.74 an ounce.
Brent crude futures BRN1! settled at $64.78 a barrel, up 34 cents, or 0.54%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CL1! finished at $61.53, up 33 cents, or 0.54%.
XAUUSD – Gold Chart
US equities turned lower in afternoon trading, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8% and on track to snap its six-day winning streak.
The Nasdaq slipped 0.9%, while the Dow Jones lost 250 points.
The pullback followed a recent rally driven by easing trade tensions and investor optimism surrounding President Trump’s proposed tax and tariff policies.
However, growing concerns that investor relief over cooling inflation and trade progress may be premature weighed on sentiment.
A selloff in big tech dragged the market lower, with Alphabet slipping during its Google I/O event and additional losses in Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft.
Tesla stood out as a rare megacap gainer, rising 2% after Musk reaffirmed his commitment to remain CEO for the next five years.
Caution also grew amid mixed earnings from Home Depot and renewed warnings from JPMorgan and Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who noted that tariffs could pressure the economy and inflation outlook.
Tesla Chart
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART – What AT is saying
Watch the range: 21000-21500
While risk is still pointed up, a failure to clear 21500 for a run at the record 22224 high risks a pause.
If 21493 holds as the high, risk is for 21000-40 BUT.
If 21000-40 holds, risk stays on the upside.
If 21000-40 fails to hold, then risk shifts to the downside.
Dow Industrials Slip; U.S. Treasury Yields Continue to Rise
Retailers are split over the impact of tariffs.
A few days after Walmart warned tariffs will push up prices for American shoppers, prompting criticism from President Trump, Home Depot said it plans to hold the line on prices.
The home-improvement retailer has been pushing to shift production out of China, and is working with suppliers to keep prices steady. Shares in Home Depot inched higher in late-morning trading, after quarterly sales beat Wall Street forecasts. Some other high-profile retailers–Target, Lowe’s and TJX–are set to report results tomorrow.
Tariffs are still in flux, and have so far had a limited impact on inflation. But many economists expect the White House’s import levies to stoke price pressures in the coming months.
U.S. Treasury yields rose for the second straight day. Government bonds sold off after lawmakers advanced a huge tax-and-spending bill expected to increase deficits and Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S. late last week. Bond prices fell Tuesday in other countries too, notably Japan, where yields shot up after a bond auction met poor take-up.
Overseas policymakers are stepping up easing to shelter their economies from the tariff fallout. Australia’s central bank on Tuesday cut rates to a two-year low. In China, banks lowered benchmark loan rates, tracking earlier easing by the People’s Bank of China.
In recent trading:
· Stocks slipped. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the three major indexes lower. On Monday, the S&P 500 posted its sixth consecutive daily gain.
· Tesla shares gained after Elon Musk said he would significantly cut back on his political spending, and expected to remain chief executive five years from now.
· Chinese battery giant CATL made its debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The stock jumped 16% as CATL wrapped up the largest equity offering in the world so far this year.
· The 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 4.5%, before pulling back a bit. It was recently at about 4.49%.
· Overseas stocks climbed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.5%, while indexes advanced in Australia and Europe.
US10Y Chart
This came out too late on Friday to impact markets although a late end of week dip in the NASDAQ suggests someone had the news
With Moody’s downgrade, US loses treasured Aaa credit rating
NAS=100 15 Minute
May 16 (Reuters) – Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating on Friday due to concerns about the nation’s growing, $36 trillion debt pile, in a move that could complicate President Donald Trump’s efforts to cut taxes and send ripples through global markets.
Moody’s first gave the United States its pristine “Aaa” rating in 1919 and is the last of the three major credit agencies to downgrade it.
Friday’s cut by one notch to “Aa1″ follows a change in 2023 in the agency’s outlook on the sovereign due to wider fiscal deficits and higher interest payments.
Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs,” Moody’s said on Friday, as it changed its outlook on the U.S. to “stable” from “negative.”
Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs,” Moody’s said on Friday, as it changed its outlook on the U.S. to “stable” from “negative.”…. truncated
US Equity Indexes Rise in Midday Trading
US equity indexes rose in midday trading Friday even after a consumer sentiment gauge slumped and inflation expectations surged.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.2% to 19,142.1, the S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 5,929.2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.2% to 42,412.3. Health care and utilities led the gainers, and technology and energy posted the only declines.
In economic news, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, compared with expectations for an increase to 53.5 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. According to a report from Trading Economics, the reading marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, the lowest since June 2022 and the second-weakest on record.
Respondents pegged one-year inflation expectations at 7.3%, up from 6.5% in April, while five-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.4%.
The survey period closed on May 13, two days after the pause on tariffs on Chinese imports.
Most US Treasury yields fell with the 10-year down 2.1 basis points to 4.43%.
Gold futures dropped 1.5% to $3,205.13 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $61.89 a barrel.
Nasdaq Chart
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART – What AT is saying
Similar to US500, extending its high marginally but unlike US500 its next key resistance is at the record 22224 high.
This makes 21000-22000 a tough zone, needing 21344 to become support to make a run at the record high.
Support on dips while above 21116, 20607-20740 below it..
US Stocks Rise for 4th Session
US stocks gained traction, benefiting from reprieve for Treasuries across the curve amid bets that the Federal Reserve will deliver multiple rate cuts this year.
The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow were all close to 0.5% higher.
Fresh data showed that headline producer prices fell sharply in April to back the view of disinflation following the softer CPI print this week.
Also, core sectors of retail sales unexpectedly contracted in the period, favoring bets that the Fed will adjust monetary policy to support the economy.
Industrials, utilities, and pharmaceuticals led the gains.
GE gained over 3% as Qatar pinned Boeing’s largest wide-body aircraft order to be solely maid with GE engines.
Also, Cisco led the tech sector following its results.
On the other hand, Walmart trimmed early losses but remained in the red after warning that tariffs forced stores to raise their prices this month.
Also, UnitedHealth sank 14$ amid reports that it will be investigated for Medicare fraud.
Nasdaq Chart
NAS100 (NASDAQ) DAILY – What AT is showing
Keep this simple: Only level left is the record 22224 hig,, a potentially tough one to crack.
To make a run at it, 21059 needs to hold as support.
Only back below 19584 (or a clear failure to break the high) would negate the upside risk.
AT = The Amazing Trader
Get your 30 day trial by clicking on the Amazing Trader link un the menu bar at the top of this page)
NAS100 (NASDAQ) DAILY – What AT is showing
Who would have thought that we would be talking about the record high just a few weeks ago?
Well, here we are as the record 22224 high looms above.
To make a run at it, 21059 would need to become support.
Only back below 19584 (or a clear failure to break the high) would negate the upside risk.
AT = The Amazing Trader
Get your 30 day trial by clicking on the Amazing Trader link in the menu bar at the top of this page)
NAS100 (NASDAQ) — What is AT showing?
Break above 19863 ends thoughts of a downtrend and confirms an uptrend that faces a potential tough zone at 21000-22000.
Pace of move up argues for a risk of some consolidation where there is support on dips as long as it trades above 19584.
(AT = The Amazing Trader charting algo…
… get your 30 day trial by clicking on the Amazing Trader link in the menu bar at the top of this page)
