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NAS100 (NASDAQ)
Impressive start to the week here as well, shrugging off a lower gap opening, finding support in our 22600-60 band and then bouncing back in range of its record 22935 high BUT
To expose the high, 22877 needs to become support. Otherwise, expect support as long as it trades above 22600.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
EURUSD 4h
After reaching higher as expected, EUR failed to go through Resistance at 1.16950, and now officially the support trendline at 1.16550 is no longer a trendline
Resistances: 1.16700, 1.16850 & 1.16950
Supports: 1.16600, 1.16550 & 1.16350
This is still a correction and not a fully developed downtrend – only below 1.15750 that would change
XAUUSD (GOLD)
Momentum: Still up on longer-term charts but broken on the 1 hour chart AFTER
Disappointing after hitting a wall at 3375
Downside contained if 3310-30 holds as support, below the bottom end would put a nail in the uptrends coffin.
Current range: 3340-75 where 3350 likely pivotal in setting its tone
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART
Trump trying to pressure Russia through support for Ukrine and threat of tariffs… Oil down on this headline
‘What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s hot?
The dollar is firmer but selectively _ most notably vs a weaker GBP, AUD and NZD
USDJPY just popped above 147.50
What’s Not?
GBP vs. the EUR (EURGBP firmer) and the USD
GOLD… up early but now weaker
US bonds… yields continue to edge higher
What’s mixed
US stocks but modest moves so far
Crude oil off earlier lows
SocGen’s Economic News Summary
Societe Generale in its early Monday economic news summary pointed out:
— United States President Trump threatens 30% tariff on Europea Union imports, EU retaliation would be matched. EURUSD weekly line violated at 1.1690, support 1.1630/1.1570. 10-year Bund yield slips to 2.71% at open. The European Commission in a statement refuses to rule out targeted countermeasures on 72 billion of U.S. exports, repeats preference for negotiated agreement by Aug. 1, not considering Anti-Coercion Instrument.
— European Central Bank’s Schnabel on Friday (Econostream): tariff negotiations moving towards ECB’sthe baseline scenario, uncertainty about the outcome of the negotiations, further rate cut not appropriate, no risk of sustained undershooting of inflation in medium term.
— China trade surplus widens to $114.8 billion in June, exports +5.8% year over year, imports +1.1% on trade truce. U.S. shipments + 32.4% month over monthg following high-level talks in London that de-escalated tariffs to 55% from 145%.
— CFTC foreign exchange positions: euro net longs raised to 14.96%, yen longs trimmed to 37.6%, lowest since March 11. Sterling longs upped to 17.3%, Australian dollar shorts raised to 48.4%, Canadian dolalr (CAD or loonie) shorts raised to 35.6%, short Swiss franc reduced to 30.5%, Mexican peso longs cut to 32.9%.
— Week ahead: U.S. consumer price index on Tuesday, retail sales on Thursday and University of Michigan on Friday. Germany ZEW survey on Tuesday. Eurozone final CPI. United Kingdom CPI on Wednesday and employment data on Thursday. China Q2 gross domestic product on Tuesday. Japan and Canada CPI.
— Nikkei -0.3%, EUR 10-year IRS -1.7bps at 2.666%, Brent steady at $70.36/barrel, Gold +0.1% at $3,359/oz.
Nikkei Chart
EUR/USD: Euro Takes It on the Chin and Pops After Trump Slaps Bloc with 30% Tariffs
Key points:
· Euro rises against dollar
· Trump rolls out the tariffs
· Europe vows to fight back
European bourses slipped and US stock futures were pointing lower Monday morning. “I’m on a mission,” the euro, probably, as it powered up toward $1.17.
Tariff Punch for Breakfast
· The euro EURUSD pulled off a comeback early Monday, popping 0.2% to approach $1.17 after swimming in the red in the past two sessions. Forex bros pushed the pair to a session high of $1.1697, eyeing that big round number just overhead.
· The bounce comes after President Trump turned up the pressure cooker over the weekend, hitting the European Union with a fresh 30% blanket tariff on imports starting August 1 — though “Sectoral Tariffs” like the auto levy will remain at 25%.
· The bold move sent European bourses slipping and had US stock futures pointing south. The euro’s resilience, meanwhile, shows currency speculators may see the dollar’s broader troubles as outweighing the trade hit — at least for now.
Countermeasures in the Works
· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen didn’t hold back in her weekend statement, saying the bloc is “ready to continue working towards an agreement” but will defend its interests if forced to.
· She did make sure to call out the economic blow: a 30% tariff on EU exports would hammer supply chains and push up costs for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.
· If talks don’t move forward to a deal, she warned that the EU will take “all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”
Can the Euro Hold Up?
· Monday’s pop comes as the single currency tries to snap a two-day losing streak, riding a bit of “must accomplish mission” energy to regain its bullish footing.
· But traders know there’s plenty that could rattle sentiment — the tariff deadline hits August 1, and in the meantime, any fresh headlines could flip the script fast.
· It’s still early week — the euro clings to the view that the dollar’s own macro baggage — including the Fed’s cautious dance around rate cuts — still caps greenback upside, even as trade tensions heat up. Even more so with US inflation coming Tuesday.
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