[GVI Forex 2]

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[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

3 blue AT (Amazing Trader) lines indicating a potential change in direction BUT this would only be confirmed by a break of 3350.

Otherwise, just consolidation between 3350-90 with fallback support at 3340-50.

Another way to look at it is using these pivotal levels

Keeps a bid while above 3350

3380 dictates whether it makes a run at 3400 and above

XAUUSD (GOLD)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a Heatmap shows…

… the dollar trading mixed with EURUSD continuing to hover but hesitate below a tempting 1.16 and USDJPY up a touch but staying below 148.

AUD and NZD outperforming, suggesting some cross flows vs the JPY

Gold has backed off but remains above 3350

US stocks are up but just consolidating.

US bond yields are up with US 10 year yield again stalling just below 4.20%

Quiet economic calendar.

One day until tariff rates kick in on Aug 7

Aug 7-9 is Trump’s deadline for new sanctions against Russia

[ST London]

This caught my attention

Stagflation-ISM

The stagflation red flags raised by U.S. service sector activity figures on Tuesday are a reminder that the world’s largest economy and most important central bank face significant challenges in the months ahead.

Investors took their cue more from the bubbling price pressures in the ISM services report than the signs of softening activity. Treasury yields crept up and rate cut expectations were trimmed as a result.

From a Reuters teport

[Mtl JP]

euronews
French PM Bayrou launches podcast and YouTube series to defend his 2026 budget cuts

France’s public deficit hit 5.8% of GDP in 2024, totalling €168.6 billion, a figure well above the maximum allowed by EU rules.

On 15 July, the prime minister presented a massive savings plan, targeting nearly €44 billion for the 2026 budget.

In his announcement, Bayrou outlined significant budget cuts to slash tens of billions of euros, aiming to bring the deficit down to 5.4% of GDP this year and 4.6% in 2026.

Among the most controversial measures are slashing two bank holidays and freezing retirement pensions and social benefits.

chief frog macron stands behing his PM claiming that the presented strategy is solid, factual and lucid, one that the country needs …

[Mtl JP]

After bowman and waller said that waiting to cut rates threatens the economy, moody’s zandi came out screaming that that US economy is on the precipice of recession, that inflation abouve target renders the FED impotent and that “It’s no mystery why the economy is struggling; blame increasing US tariffs and highly restrictive immigration policy,”

then yesterday GS shared that “Housing to remain weakest part of economy in the second half”

and now here is cnbc’s Yun LI with
Prediction markets see Hassett and Warsh as Fed chair front-runners as Trump talks up the ‘Kevins’

[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

Same question as US500

Retracement or is the low in?

Tuesday high at 23302 was below 23385 = 61.8% so still in a retracement mode.

On the upside, dependent in 22843 holding to keep hopes for more than a retracement alive… below it pouts 22644-77 back on the radar.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Retracement or is the low in?

Tuesday high at 6354 = 61.8% (see below) so still in a retracement mode.

On the upside, dependent in 6254 holding to keep hopes for more than a retracement alive… below it pouts 6200-14 back on the radar.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI News]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Same pivotal levels

Keeps a bid while above 3350

3380 dictates whether it makes a run at 3400 and above

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

While 1.1550 sets the bias, 1.1580 is pivoital if there will be a run at 1.16.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

While 1.1550 sets the bias, 1.1580 is pivoital if there will be a run at 1.16.

[GVI Forex 2]

PARTIAL TRUCE BUT NOT A CEASEFIRE?

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

Rebound paused shy of the 61.8% FIBO (see below) to keep this in a retracement mode.

Now dependent in 22824 holding to keep hopes for more than a retracement alive… below it puts 22644-77 back on the radar.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

FIBOS for 23729 => 22829

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

I posted this earlier:  Chart shows high at 6354 = 61.8% (see below)

Now dependent in 6254 holding to keep hopes for more than a retracement alive… below it puts 6200-14 back on the radar.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

FIBOS for 6441 => 6214

[GVI Forex 2]

As I asked (and gave a hint), the dollar was diverging (vs weaker stocks and firmer bonds) but for how long?

It took awhile but the dollar finally adjusted.

Midday forex recap:

EURUSD is back above 1.1550 and along with a failure to reach 1.1516 puts 1.16 (and potential stops) in play.

USDJPY failed below 148 to cap its upside but lagging as its intra-day low at 146.61 is still some distance away.

GBPUSD lagged EURUSD in both directions. 1.35 is pivotal, Monday’s high at 1.3531 is closest resistance.

USDX 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

What’s hot and what’s not?

What’s hot?

Dollar is still firmer on the day despite the ISM Services miss but for how long?

Gold has bounced after holding our 3350 support

US bonds up (yields down)

What’s not?

US stocks are down after the ISM Services miss

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks hit on ISM miss… bond yields slipping slightly so far… USD diverging but for how long?

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM Services miss… prices paid higher

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[Mtl JP]

nasty reaction
zoom uP 10 pips zoom down 10 pips

what does it say about pentup positioning one way or another ?

I dont see much market excitement unless 1.16 breaks out

or euro suddenly and massively pukes 150+ pips to the downside

[GVI Forex 2]

Upward revisions… ISM more important… ISM Services PMI due next

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[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1549
–
top of the hour:
ISM Services for Jul exp 51.5 vs 50.8

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s hope for more volatility.

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[Mtl JP]

perfectly clear (to most players)

—
98.90 9:30 AM EDT
my guess about what players will do to the DLR is that they ll not be buying the DLR vigurously
Res 100
Sup 98/50 & 30-ish

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

Is the low in or just a retracement?

See below for FIBO levels (still below 61.8%)

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

FIBOS for 23729 => 22829

[GVI Forex 2]

Typical = rambling

[Mtl JP]

… Typical one with no surpises …
that is new 🙂

[Author]

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