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EURUSD 1h
If EUR goes above 1.17800 in this bar/hour , it will continue towards 1.18600
Another possibility is for it to close this bar just above 1.17550 – next bar will be Up
Worst case scenario for EUR is to close this bar just below 1.18600 without first breaking it….that might lead it in next hour the same way down as it climbed in this hour…
EURUSD pop on LaGarde implying ECB is on hold BUT …1.1750 remains pivotal
No surprise from the ECB…No mention of EURO… LaGarde press conferene next
This article is worth revisting ahead of the ECB meeting
In our blog
Will the ECB Change Its Tune on the Euro’s Rise?
Bitcoin Rises as Trade Deal Optimism Boosts Sentiment
Bitcoin edges higher as optimism over U.S. trade deals boosts risk appetite. The U.S. and Japan agreed a trade deal that imposes a 15% tariff on Japanese goods. The WSJ reports that the U.S. and EU are close to reaching a similar deal with a 15% tariff on most imports from the EU. “With trade deals likely with all the trading partners, markets can move from the uncertainty surrounding tariffs,” Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Cryptocurrencies have also been buoyed by advances in regulation with the U.S. passing three crypto bills last week. Bitcoin rises 0.7% to $118,769, having reached a record high of $123,153 last Monday, according to LSEG.
310,000,000 DOGE in 2 Days: Is Dogecoin Ready to Rally After 10% Drop?
Key points:
· Despite DOGE’s price slump, the whales’ accumulation, the rising exchange outflows, and a nearly oversold RSI signal that the bull run is far from being over.
· Analysts remain optimistic, setting targets of $0.52 and even a new ATH of $5.
The Whales and the Other Bullish Factors
The biggest meme coin has experienced a substantial price pullback over the last 24 hours, retreating by around 10% and currently trading at $0.23 (per CoinGecko’s data).
However, the whales’ recent actions suggest that another uptrend could be just around the corner. Large investors have purchased more than 310 million DOGE in the span of 48 hours, “signalling major accumulation after a brief profit-taking dip.”
The USD equivalent of the bought stash is roughly $73.5 million, whereas the whales now hold approximately 25.42 billion tokens. This represents 16.6% of Dogecoin’s circulating supply and is worth more than $6 billion.
The accumulation from big investors leaves fewer coins available on the open market and might trigger a price rally if demand remains steady or increases. Furthermore, their actions could be mimicked by smaller players who may inject fresh capital into the ecosystem.
The rising outflow of DOGE from exchanges should also be interpreted as a bullish element. CoinGlass’s data shows that investors have been moving their holdings from centralized platforms to self-custody solutions over the last several months, which reflects a reduced immediate selling pressure.
Last but not least, Dogecoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to nearly 30. Such a ratio typically indicates that the asset may be oversold and is due for a trend reversal. Conversely, anything above 70 means that the valuation has soared too rapidly in a short period and may be followed by a short-term correction.Price Predictions
Despite the dip, many Dogecoin proponents remain optimistic that the price is poised to reach fresh peaks soon.
FTSE 100 Trades at Record Levels
The FTSE 100 rose over 0.5% to above 9,100 on Thursday, poised to reach another record, driven by optimism around a potential US-EU trade deal.
Reports suggested both sides are moving toward a 15% tariff agreement, with EU negotiators pushing to include cars.
President Trump confirmed he won’t accept tariffs below 15%, and some could go as high as 50%.
Strong corporate updates also lifted the index.
Howden Joinery jumped 11% after reporting better-than-expected growth despite a tough UK market.
Reckitt surged 10% after upgrading its outlook, with Jefferies praising strong sales in core brands, even in weaker markets like Latin America and China.
BT gained over 5% following results that showed improving trends.
On the economic front, UK services and composite PMI data missed expectations, pointing to slower private sector growth, while manufacturing data beat forecasts, with the contraction easing more than expected.
Sterling Weakens from 2-Week High
The British pound slipped to $1.354 from a two-week high of $1.358 after weaker-than-expected UK PMI data raised concerns about the economy and boosted bets on Bank of England rate cuts.
Services and composite readings missed forecasts, signalling a sharper slowdown in private sector growth, while manufacturing showed a smaller-than-expected contraction.
Despite a slight rebound in input price inflation, analysts expect the BoE to prioritize growth over inflation due to soft data and a looser labor market.
Traders now await retail sales data, expected to rebound thanks to warm weather.
Meanwhile, broader market sentiment was lifted by signs of progress on a US-EU trade deal.
Reports suggest a 15% tariff agreement is taking shape, with the EU aiming to include autos.
President Trump said he won’t accept tariffs below 15% and hinted some could go as high as 50% ahead of the August 1 deadline.
Euro Could Fall if ECB Shows Concerns Over Currency’s Recent Strength
The euro could weaken if the European Central Bank expresses concerns about the single currency’s strength at Thursday’s meeting, ING’s Chris Turner says in a note. Some ECB members have been vocal about the euro’s rise and there’s a chance of forex exchange remarks Thursday, he says. “After all, the ECB has been focused on the theme of inflation undershooting, and a strong domestic currency does contribute to that.” It’s unclear whether the ECB feels currency remarks might hinder U.S.-EU trade relations given Trump’s sensitivity to forex exchange manipulation, he says. The ECB announces its policy decision at 1215 GMT followed by a press conference at 1245 GMT. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1760.
USDJPY
Low extended to 145.85, just shy of our 145.74 key support, the last obstacle to 145 and below.
For the pause to considered a bottom, 147.21+ would need to be regained.
So, the bounce should be considered a correction (while below 147,21) but one change is there are no sell stops until below 145.85.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
XAUUSD (GOLD)
Is the high in or just a retracement?
2 blue Amazing Trader line drawn off the high followed by a break of 3383 indicate a potential change in direction.
At a minimum it indicates a loss of momentum.
To restore a bid, 3383 and 3405 would need to be regained.
On the downside, 3344 is a key support (also a 50% FIBO) with 3310 the key level as it was the start of the latest leg up.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Using my platform as cheap shows…
.. the dollar is trading a touch firmer (except vs the AU) although still on the defensive
EURUSD 1.1750 remains pivotal. USDJPY has bounced from a sub-146 test,
Gold has extended its retreat *retracement?) after failing to hold above 3400
US stocks are consolidating after NAS100 and US500 set new record highs yesterday
US bond yields are higher
ECB meeting, US weekly jobless claims due today
Trump visits the Fed today — firing Powell would be a shocker and the ultimate distraction from the Epstein story.
8 days to the tariff/trade deal deadline. Markets appear to be operating under the assumption that the EU will follow Japan with a trade deal.
SOLUSD – Solana
After reaching 205.00 + Solana dived quite a bit – lost 10% in one day.
What is significant even more is the fact that 205.00 is exactly in the middle of the Bullish channel with Upper target at 305.00
Now Sol has two options:
To hold on support at 170.00 and break above 205.00 to continue its journey towards top of the channel
Or to lose it and face a support that is way lower at 110.00
Additional supports:
184.45, 174.40, 160.00 & 125.00
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