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What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot
US bonds are up (yields are lower)
What’s Hot/Not
US dollar is off its highs but mixed on the day as follow through proving difficult
US stocks were hot earlier but have since cooled off
Gold was cold earlier but has since caught a bid
Crude was down earlier but bouncing off its lows
Why (Amazing Trader) levels matter
US500 FAILED TO BREAK/HOLD ABOVE 6272 (ALWAYS LEAVE A FEW PIPS LEEWAY) AND SEE WHAT FOLLOWED…
US500 (SP500) 15 MINUTE CHART
Why (Amazing Trader) levels matter
Bounce from double bottom just above 1.1700
EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART
Why (Amazing Trader) levels matter
US500 tested 6272, now a triple top
Generally more times a level is tested the weaker it becomes but market pays notice if it continues to hold.
US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR CHART
Navarro sort of affirming my view that tariff letters are part of the negotiation process…threaten high rates and then negotiate to get trade deals favorablo to the US.
EURUSD up on this headline… so far positive comments have come from EU sources, not from the US
EURUSD pop higher seemed to coincide with this headline… maybe news algos reacted to keywords and not the actual text
USDJPY
With the brief move above 147 not following through, focus shifts to the downside where 146.45 50 needs to hold to prevent exposing support at 146.00.
One change from yesterday is that buy stops have been exhausted until/unless 147.19 is broken.
With that said, keeps its bid if 146.50 can hold as support.
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART
These Stocks Are Moving the Most Today: AES, Freeport-McMoRan, Apple, Intel, Aehr Test Systems ….
Stock futures were rising Wednesday with Wall Street’s focus on the latest tariff developments from President Donald Trump.
These stocks were poised to make moves Wednesday:
AES Corp. jumped 11% after Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported the renewable power company was exploring its options, including a possible sale, amid potential takeover interest from large investment firms. Several major private-equity firms and infrastructure investors have been studying AES after the stock lost about half its value over the past two years, the people said. Coming into Wednesday, AES has declined 37% over the past 12 months.
Freeport-McMoRan rose 2.5% on Tuesday and was up another 2% in premarket trading, rising after copper prices jumped 13% to all-time highs following comments from President Donald Trump that he would be slapping a 50% tariff on copper imports.
Apple’s Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams plans to retire later this year and will transition his role this month to Sabih Khan, Apple’s senior vice president of operations. Williams was named operating chief in late 2015 and has served since as the iPhone maker’s No. 2 under CEO Tim Cook. Kahn has worked at Apple for 30 years and joined the executive team as senior vice president of operations in 2019, the company said. He has been in charge of Apple’s global supply chain for the past six years. Apple shares rose 0.2%.
Mobileye Global was down 1%. The maker of sensors and software for driver-assistance features and self-driving cars announced that a subsidiary of Intel would be selling 45 million shares of the company in an underwritten secondary public offering. Mobileye also said it expects second-quarter revenue of $502 million to $506 million, better than analysts’ consensus of $466.4 million.
Chip maker Intel, meanwhile, fell 0.2% in the premarket session. The stock closed Tuesday with a gain of 7.2% on what was little fresh news. “Nothing new or fundamental,” said Jordan Klein, Mizuho managing director and technology specialist, adding there has been a rotation into semiconductor stocks, which could give Intel a boost considering it has declined 32% over the past 12 months.
Nvidia, the leading maker of AI chips, was up slightly ahead of the opening of trading after rising 1.1% and closing at a record high Tuesday of $160.
Aehr Test Systems, a maker of test systems for sensors and semiconductors, was tumbling 20% after saying it was maintaining its “cautious approach” and wasn’t “reinstating specific guidance beyond what we have already stated” because it continues to see some timing-related delays in order placements “due to tariff-related uncertainty,” particularly in the current first quarter.
Penguin Solutions, the artificial-intelligence infrastructure company, fell 6.1% after posting fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings that beat Wall Street forecasts but revenue of $324.3 million that missed consensus. The company also raised its fiscal-year adjusted earnings outlook.
AZZ Inc., the provider of hot-dip galvanizing and coil coating solutions, is scheduled to report quarterly earnings Wednesday.
Intel Chart
FTSE 100 Little Changed on Wednesday
The FTSE 100 hovered near the flatline on Wednesday, after a 0.5% gain in the previous session.
Mining stocks dragged the index lower after President Trump unexpectedly proposed a 50% tariff on copper imports.
Antofagasta fell about 3%, while Anglo American and Glencore dropped 2.3% and 2%, respectively.
Healthcare also took a hit, with AstraZeneca down 0.8% and GSK slipping 0.5%, after Trump floated the idea of a steep 200% tariff on pharmaceutical imports unless companies shift production to the US within a year.
Advertising giant WPP was the day’s biggest loser, plunging over 13% after cutting its full-year revenue and margin guidance, now expecting a 3–5% drop in like-for-like sales, versus the prior outlook of flat to -2%.
On the upside, British American Tobacco rose 2.5%, Imperial Brands gained 1.6%, and Rolls-Royce climbed 1.2%.
Legal & General and BP also advanced, up more than 1% and 0.9%, respectively.
USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX).
Using USDX as a proxy for the EURUSD (57.6% of the index) shows consolidation waiting for EURUSD to spark a break of a 97.50 -75 range.
Trading tip: When in a tight intra-day range, keep your emotions in check as small moves can look like big ones and thus appear exaggerated on your charts.
USDX 1 HOUR CHART
Bitcoin gets ‘highly favorable’ cues as DXY sets 21-year weakness record
Key points:
· The US dollar index (DXY) is below its yearly moving average and more than six points below its 200-day equivalent.
· Bitcoin should stand to benefit from the trend thanks to its traditional inverse correlation to DXY.
· BTC price action has yet to follow historical precedent on the dollar this time.
Bitcoin BTCUSD stands to benefit from US debt and dollar weakness as the greenback sets a two-decade record.
Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the US dollar index (DXY).
BTC price tailwinds stack up as DXY sags
BTC price strength continues to receive a tailwind from the US dollar, which this month bounced off its lowest levels versus trading-partner currencies since early 2022.
DXY fell to 96.377 on July 1 a level not seen in over three years, with the dollar strength yardstick down over 10% year-to-date.
While the U.S. debt reaches a new all-time high, the DXY has just hit a historically weak level, currently trading 6.5 points below its 200-day moving average, marking the largest deviation in the past 21 years
Bitcoin has regularly demonstrated inverse correlation to DXY over its lifespan, but in recent years, the relationship has become less clear cut.
As the dollar weakens and loses its safe-haven appeal, investors reassess their portfolio allocations and shift capital toward alternative asset classes
An accompanying chart shows the relationship between BTC price performance and the relationship of DXY to its 365-day MA.
Euro Steadies Near 4-Year High as EU, US Race to Finalize Trade Deal
The euro held steady around $1.17, near its highest level since August 2021, as investors awaited updates on US-EU trade negotiations.
The European Union aims to finalize a preliminary agreement with Washington this week to secure a 10% tariff framework beyond the August 1 deadline, while talks toward a permanent deal continue.
On Tuesday, reports surfaced that the US proposed maintaining a 10% baseline tariff, with exemptions for key sectors such as aircraft and spirits.
However, Washington has shown no willingness to extend exemptions to politically sensitive industries, including cars, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals, despite requests from Brussels.
In response, the EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on various US goods and has warned that additional measures—such as export controls and restrictions on US companies’ access to public contracts—could follow if no deal is reached.
Meanwhile, in monetary policy, markets are pricing in just one more rate cut from the ECB this year.
Japanese Yen Weakens as Tariff Tensions Deepen
The Japanese yen slipped past 147 per dollar on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive session of losses as trade negotiations between the US and Japan showed signs of strain, particularly over Japan’s rice market protections.
The decline followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, set to take effect on August 1.
Trump emphasized that there would be no revisions or delays to the newly imposed tariffs, which target 14 countries in total.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the latest measures “truly regrettable,” but affirmed Japan’s commitment to continue talks with Washington in search of a mutually beneficial resolution.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda noted the central bank is closely watching for potential second-round effects on core inflation, particularly from rising food prices including rice.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows..
… markets on hold waiting for the details of the next set of tariff letters to be reported.
The dollar is trading mixed… the only currency to move out of yesterday’s range was USDJPY, which ran stops above 147 but then moved back below it
Gold is weaker, trading below 3300
US stocks are biding time waiting for more tariff related news
US bond yields are a touch lower
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