[GVI Forex 2]

Chi PMI: Big miss to this volatile report

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF

It’s hard to trade USDCHF without keeping an eye on EURCHF, where a bounce in this cross helped check the USDCHF downside below .8000

Momentum break only confirmed by a solid move above .8032

Levels are clear: .8000 will ultimately set the tone

Support: Near double bottom at .7974-76

Resistance: .Intra-day 8035 high

USDCHF 1 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

So far holding Power of “50” level at 1.1650 post-PCE

Above it keeps the range to 1.1650-90

Below it exposes 1.1625.

To  break current down momentum, 1.1666+would be needed.

Month end flows likely to dominate into 4PM Londoin fixing.

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

[Mtl JP]

fwiw from FT 27/08/2025
“Germany’s cabinet approves voluntary military service for teenagers”

[Mtl JP]

Next Data Release with tradeable potential:
10:00 – U of Mich. Sentiment Aug 58.6 vs 58.6 (crappy vs crappy)

after that players are likely to prefer holding the dolllar over the weekend
if I am not wrong abaout gaging player sentiment

but remain open to suggestions

[GVI Forex 2]

No surprises: PCE in line with consensus

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[Mtl JP]

geez dint that come out half an hour agao ?

[GVI Forex 2]

 

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[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year bond yield pre-PCE

 

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FedWatch 85/15 odds for 25bps rate cut

[Mtl JP]

Euro 1.1663
DLRX 98.041 at 7:31 AM EDT, slightly uP

Fed chair contender waller stated his support a 25 pt rate cut in Sep, with more cuts in the following months

some data on deck today
PCE – expect 0.3% M/M and uP to 2.9% for the year from June’s 2.8% – runs odds of bit philip reaction for the DLR

euro sitting just about on its 50day
Res 1.1720; Sup 1.1620
In the grander scheme of things I biased uP
so likely be looking for buying opps in dips

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up :US PCE

See our Economic Data calendar foer trhew consensus forecast

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX Index

Dax is sneaking up to that channel support line at 23.650

Resistances just above the head are: 24.045 & 24.155

Losing of 23.650 might be a very bad news for Dax, as it opens a Pandora box – 23.000 would be tested and that is the “All Bets Off” level….

But let’s not rush into conclusions right now – let’s see how it develops from here.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Bitcoin whales send BTC price under $109.5K as market ‘wobbles’ into US PCE

Bitcoin whales take the blame as “spoofy” transactions send BTC price action below $110,000.

The Bitcoin “whale playbook” means that price is repeating behavior from earlier in August.

US PCE inflation data is under the microscope as the next potential market mover.

 

Bitcoin BTCUSD fell nearly 3% Friday as attention again focused on whale selling.

As crypto long liquidations hit $350 million over 24 hours, traders placed the blame on whales.

Crypto markets uncertain into US PCE print

Other factors that play into BTC price weakness include macroeconomic tensions surrounding US inflation data.

The Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, was due at 8:30 am Eastern Time.

Inflation data is of prime importance to crypto and risk assets ahead of the Fed’s predicted interest-rate cut in September.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

So far 1.17000 rejected EUR attempts to break higher

Right now that line is at 1.16900

Once again my “historical” lines and angles proved to be working…

We have 4 weeks now that EUR is stuck between 1.15250 & 1.17450

For today two levels are deciding : 1.16550 & 1.16900 – break on either side should produce some commotion and even decide on EUR’s fate for the next week.

I’ll give an Update during the day if situation demands it and later tonight weekly outlook.

[GVI Forex 2]

tt is time to revisit this article ahead of US PCE

U.S. Tariffs: Markets Stay Calm, But Inflation and Stagflation Risks Loom

Are buoyant markets due for a reality check?

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP high .8674…. last .8668… note related price action in EURUSD and GBPUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP

EURGBP tends to see a lot activity around month end….currently bid (for 2nd Day) weighing on GBPUSD while giving some support to EURUSD

Faces tough resistance at 8675-81

Below 8649 would cool the risk, below 8635 fully negates it

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Alert

US Bpnd and Stock markets close early today at 1 PM EDT ahead of the US Labor Day holiday

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX (US Dollar Index)

Hit our 97.77 target for a doubler bottom… likely coincided with EURUSD (57.6% of the index) stall beow 1.17

98.27 is the key level on top, above ends the down momentum, probably would require a EURUSD move back below 1.1650 to break it.

USDX 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Consolidating after extending its high to 3423.

Should find support in the 3400-07 area but if not 3384 provides support.

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows,,,

.. the dollar is trading close to unchanged vs most currencies except a weaker GBP and a firmer NZD. Key data focus will be on US PCE ahead of month end and early closures for US markets ahead of the 3 day Labor Dy weekend.

On order of strength vs the USD

1. NZD

2. AUD

3. CAD

4. JPY

5. EUR

6. CHF

7. GBP

[ST London]

WASHINGTON – The U.S. tariff exemption for package shipments valued under $800 ended on Friday, raising costs and disrupting supply chain models for e-commerce companies, small businesses using online marketplaces and consumers alike.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency began collecting normal duty rates on all global parcel imports, regardless of value, country of origin, or mode of transportation at 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on Friday. It offered a flat-rate duty option of $80 to $200 per package shipped from foreign postal agencies for six months….Reuters

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1660

it appears that price 50day are in love
for now

[GVI Forex 2]

Reminder: Friday is month end

As it’s this time of the month I suggest reading this article

Can You Time Month-End Forex Rebalancing Flows? Understanding FX Hedging and Dollar Demand

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

Stock Market Wrap 2

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[GVI Forex 2]

Stock Market Wrrap 1 – Tech Outperforms

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

Finally making a breakout of the 23300-23700 range.Still layers of resistance (see chart) ahead of the record 23986 record high but exposed while above 23600.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Now that a new record high has been set above 6500, this becomes the pivotal level going forward.

Above it, is a strong bid.in uncharted territory.

Back below it would cool but not negate the breakout.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Author]

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