[GV News]

Top gaining US stocks in pre-market

US stocks below are pre-market gainers: they increased the most in price before the start of regular trading hours. They’re sorted by pre-market price change

[GVI Forex 2]

Big miss (higher PPI)

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[Mtl JP]

gv econ calendar has a red dot on one of the data 08:30 releases
–
USD Initial Jobless Claims 228K vs 226K

the redd dot suggest the potential reaction-ability of the DLR if the release misses “expert”s expectation

[Mtl JP]

bessent said roster of 11
trump said (yesty) “between 3 – 4” now

bottom line
powell is poof! for practical purposes
now being evacuated as a bad smell out of a room

[Mtl JP]

… .. . Up next: US data . .. …

currently USD is uP a little bit at 97.81

but in the grand scheme of things the tone and intensity of screams and goadings for a rate cut remain undercutting the dollar’s uP-side

I keep looking for selling the dlr opps

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump=-Putin Summit Preview

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[GVI Forex 2]

Up next: US data

July PPI

Weekly jobless claims

Neither will change expectations of a Sept rate cut but it pays to be aware of consensus forecasts in case of a miss/beat.

Markets should be more sensitive to a downside miss (lower PPI, higher claims) than an upside beat.

See our Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Textbook with USD in downtrends:

EURGBP bounced off support… EURUSD bounced while GBPUSD stayed bid with a lag

8606 – 1.1695 – 1.3589

[ST London]

A stronger currency is double trouble for countries trying to cope with higher US tariffs for their exports.

[GVI Forex 2]

This was the trigger for the UsDJPY tumble overnight. Similar to WH pressure on the Fed, this makes the BoJ’s job harder as a rate hike might be seen as being driven by pressure from the US.

Another way to look at it is that Bessent is calling for a weaker USDJPY by calling for a narrowing of the interest rate gap between the US and Japan

Bessent Says BOJ Is Falling Behind the Curve, Expects Hike

(Bloomberg) — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve in addressing inflation, in a rare comment admonishing policy decisions by a foreign central bank.

“They’re behind the curve,” Bessent told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, noting that that was his opinion, and that he discussed inflation in Japan with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. “So they’re going to be hiking and they need to get their inflation problem under control,” he added.

USDJPY DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP

EURGBP extended its slide to test key 8596 support, which has so far checked the downside (void below to 8507)

On the upside, back above 8620 would be needed to cool the risk, back above 8635 to shift focus to 8659

Note: A weaker EURGBP has been a weight on EURUSD while helping to give GBPUSD a bid so watch how it trades vs 8596

EURGBP DAILY CHART

[GVI News]

Out earlier. One BOE rate cut priced in for the rest of the year.

UK GDP +0.3% in Q2, beats expected +0.1% but the gain seems to be mainly due to higher government spending.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN)

New record high (124170) but then backing down below the former 123168 high, which along with the new record high need to become support to signal even higher levels to come.

Otherwise, 120000 stays pivotal, keeps a bid while above it.

BTCUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

More chop trading within 3300-3400 where 3350 continues to be the intra-day bias setter.

Outside day (downside by 1 pt) leaves the intra-day range at 3341-75 with 3330-80 outsode of it.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

Held above the 1.1664 bottom of the support bnd.

Would need to regain 1.1693 to shift focus back to 1.17

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Still cautiouS Fed

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[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP showsa,,,

.. the dollar trading up except vs a firmer JPY and an unchanged GBP. EURUSD has fallen back after failing to hold 1.17+

1. JPY

2. GBP

3. CAD

4. CHF

5. EUR

6. AUD

7. NZD

[ST London]

The yen outperformed all of its major peers on Thursday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made comments suggesting the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan adjust their policy rates (narrow the interest rate gap)

[GVI Forex 2]

For those who missed it, see below

Savvy Trader’s USDJPY Update – Key Levels and EURJPY Timing Signal

USDJPY has been a trader’s paradise for a year but the next big move may be down.

Here’s why the Savvy Trader is selling rallies with an initial target of 143.20 and watching EURJPY for the timing cue.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

Chart is clear: 146.61 is key support, below it exposes 145.85

Only back above 147.51 would negate the downside risk,

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Full slate of economic data on Thursday

Australian Jobs Report (Jul)
UK GDP (Jun/Q2)
Swedish CPIF (Jul)
EZ Flash GDP (Q2) and Employment (Q2)
US PPI (Jul) and Weekly Jobless Claims

See our Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

GS rate cut forecast

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[Belgrade Bobby]

Eli Lilly and Company – LLY

Eli showed some proof of life today, but I wouldn’t be excited too much…

Resistance at: 672.50, 677.50 & 709.00

Support: 644.50, 639.45 & 632.25

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio just lingering today , but didn’t even test 4.45

So now we have two levels – 4.45 on the low side and 4.75 on the upper side.

New day, new possibility 😀

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

Passing its first Day after a breakout test by trading above its former 23729 high.

So keeps its strong bid while above 23729 but the spike high to 23986 and looming 24000 level argue for a risk of a breather. However, a breather has not been in the NAS dictionary but still worth noting.

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Passing the test on the first day after a breakout by setting a new high (6483) holding the former record high at 6441, now support.

Now dependent on 6441 holding to keep a risk on 6483 and 6500 above it.

The spike to 6483 is worth noting but only a factor if 6441 fails to hold.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

dove goolsbee
–
Fed grappling with impact of tariffs as it ponders rate decisions, Goolsbee says
By Reuters, August 13, 2025 2:26 PM

Goolsbee cautious on assuming tariffs as one-time inflation shock
Fed’s next policy meeting is on September 16-17
Goolsbee says labor market solid despite slowing job growth

Aug 13 (Reuters) – Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank is grappling with understanding whether tariffs will push up inflation just temporarily or more persistently, which would inform its decision on when to cut interest rates.
“As we go into the fall, these are going to be some live meetings and we’re going to have to figure it out,” Goolsbee told the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce in Springfield, Illinois. “The hardest thing that a central bank ever has to do is to try to get the timing right when there are moments of transition.”

my heart does not bleed for the central bank

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Repelled in the 3364-80 (now 3370-80) resistance zone

If consolidation range is 3300-3400 then 3350 will continue to the focus and set the intra-day trading bias while within it.

Range: 3330/40- 3370/80

XAUUSD (GOLD)

[Author]

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