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USDJPY 30 MINUTE CHART – AN ALERT OR WARNNG?
USDJPY came within a couple of pips of 151.97 yesterday and has backed off a touch but remains bid despite the BoJ intervention threat (note weak JPY crosses.
AN ALERT OR A WARNING
I RECEIVED AN EMAIL ABOUT USDJPY THAT I WOULD NORMALLY IGNORE EXCEPT IT CAME FROM SOMEONE WHO IS A WELL-CONNECTED SOURCE.
THE XXX (NAME OMITTED BUT IT WASN’T THE BOJ) MAY DROP THE BALL ON USDJPY ONE FINE MORNING.
I am only the messenger but would be remiss if I did not pass this on given the source.
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – THE OUTPERFORMER
Note, my posts yesterday about following the oath of least resistance.
AUDUSD has so far been the outperformer today as flows from the JPY continue to keep USDJPY in sight of 152 but reluctant to challenge the BoJ while the USD trades soft elsewhere, helped by offsets from JOPY crosses.
I had to go to a 4-hour chart to find the key resistance, which is not until .6635 so damage so far has not been fatal.
In the absence of nearby support, look at former resistance for the first levels. of support or revert to shorter time frames.
USDJPY Monthly
This is NOT a Bitcoin, Nvidia or Gold…this is Yen (not Sparta definitely 😀
Mind you, all time High of Modern times is at 160.360
It is becoming kind of hilarious….a Small correction is like 1000 pips lower, and a decent one…well…how about 2.500 pips .
Trading it on anything bigger than half an hour chart takes some Cojones 😀
USD 4 HOUR CHART – INTERVENTION THREAT LOOMS BUT…
USDJPY remains within 151-152 with the market wary of pushing the top side too hard.
However, given the overall USD strength and the pop in bond yields, any intervention would likely prove short-lived unless it continues in a sustained way.
With that said, traders will be wary as they do not want to get caught in the first wave should there be intervention.
USDJPY Week Ahead
Intervention or no intervention – that is the question !
If we just ignore it, this is what it is right now :
Support at 150.500 – has to Hold for move Up
Resistance at 152.000
In my opinion, this is the perfect set up for targeting 155.000
I don’t trade opinions…even my own – but I see it only Up as it is.
USDJPY 4 hour chart – Intervention of not?
Range is very clear 151.00-151.97 but next week is a new ball game.
There seems no compelling reason to intervene as verbal intervention has so far cooled threat but noit negated the threat to 152 and higher.
If they are serious about squeezing the USDJPY longs, then breaks of 151.00/0/trendline/150.26 (and 150.00) would be needed.
AUDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – SHORT JPY POSITIONS BEING UNWOUND
USDJPY IS ABOUT UNCHANGED WHILE THE USD IS FIRMER VS OTHER PAIRS
AUD AND NZD ARE WEAKEST, EUR THEN GBP AND CAD ARE NEXT
WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU?
JAPANESE INTERVENTION THREAT IS BEING TAKEN SERIOUSLY AHEAD OF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT JPY (CARRY TRADE?) CROSSES ARE BEING UNWOUND
ON THIS CHART AUDJPY NEEDS TO TRADE BACK ABOVE.9842 OR RISK STAYS ON THE DOWNSIDE
USDJPY Update: Trend Line Break and Support Levels
The recent price action in USDJPY has seen a break below the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a prolonged consolidation phase for the uptrend starting from 146.47 is currently in progress.
As long as the critical support level at 150.26 remains intact, there is potential for the upward momentum to resume, with the possibility of further advancement towards the 170.00 region following the consolidation period.
The initial support level to monitor is at 150.95. If this level is breached, it could lead to a test of the key support at 150.26. Only a decisive breakdown below this pivotal level would suggest the potential completion of the uptrend that originated from 146.47.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATION?
With Goldman raising its 3-month USDJPY forecast (see prior post), let’s take a look at a 4-hour USDJPY chart.
With 151.90 remaining the major resistance (shown on a daily chart), currently protected by 1.5181-86, the current range is consolidating between 150/152, with 151 acting as a neutral midpoint.
The key support is at 150.26. above it keeps 151.90 in play, a stronger risk if 151.00 can become support.
The reason that I looked at the range as consolidation is that the upcoming week is not a normal one
Pre-Easter week and a 4-day long weekend break
A week normally dominated by position adjustment rather than aggressive positioning
Light economic calendar, highlight Friday’s US PCE report
Month/quarter end for many on Thursday with markets closed on Friday-Monday
The actual quarter end is Friday
USDJPY Analysis: Pullback and Support Levels
USDJPY has experienced a retracement from 151.81 to a low of 150.26, with the pair now testing the support of the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart.
If the trend line support remains unbroken, the current pullback from 150.26 could be interpreted as a period of consolidation for the uptrend starting from 146.47. In this scenario, there is still potential for further upward movement towards the 170.00 area after the consolidation phase.
The key support level to monitor is at 150.26. If the price falls below this level, it could indicate the potential completion of the uptrend that initiated from 146.47, with the next target set at the 149.00 area.
