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July ISM Services PMI: Small headline miss, employment down, prices paid up
US PREMARKET MOVERS: SPCX, LLY, AMD, UBER, SHOP, BKNG, CVS, DIS, LCID
ES +0.5% NQ +0.3% RTY +0.3%
<p style=”text-align: center;”>Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days</p>Microsoft’s stock has staged an extraordinary 28% rally📈 over the past two weeks, reaching an eight-month high near 500 on Tuesday and rocketing above its 200-day SMA. However, the rally appears stretched as the price struggles to clear the November-January resistance📉 near 490, increasing the risk of a short-term pause.
USDJPY 1 HOUR: – BoJ looms
In the absence of the BoJ, which still looms as a risk above the market, USDJPY has settled in a 157.21-157.95, which seems too tight to last for too long.
On top, the 200-day mva (157.98) remains an obstacle while the low at 155.22 is distant.
Worth noting is that US Treasury Secretary Bessent, while supporting BoJ intervention for fear that JPY weakness would spill over to other currencies, said that he favored a stable JPY. In this regard, 150-160 or perhaps 155-160 would be considered a stable range.
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 5th August 2026
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Market Update; Wait and see
Markets consolidating in a wait-and-see mode awaiting news on the Strait of Hormuz being reopened. Surprise (although it shouldn’t be) would be if talks stall and there is no confirmation.
US500 eyes are on 7800 and whether it can extend its high towards it.
EURUSD holding a bid but would need to clear 1.1550 to make a run at its 1.1559 high (HOD 1.1548)
.XAUUSD DAILY – Bulls trying to take control;
Short term trend: Up
Momentum: UP following breaks of 4120 and 4166 (high 4180)
Bulls trying to take control (while above 4120) but to kick it into high gear would need to break the 4220 top of a 1+ month range.
On the downside, will keep a bid as long as it trades above 4100-20 with 4065 the fallback level that needs to hold to keep momentum, pointed up (on shorter-term charts).
Forex Market Snapshot
The forex market has taken a back seat to the surge in stocks, sharp drop in crude oil (although off its lows), lower bond yields and today’s spike higher in gold. This has seen the dollar trade mixed and so far in tight ranges )(NZD the underperformer)..
Worth noting is USDJPY consolidating and trying to hold a bid in the absence of BoJ intervention but remains just below 157.98 (200 day mva)
COMING UP: Data: Global S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Jul), US ADP Employment Change (Jul), ISM Services PMI (Jul).
Events: RBI Policy Announcement (Aug), NBH Minutes (Jul), US Treasury QRA/Press Conference, BCB Policy Announcement (Aug).
Speakers: Fed’s Cook, Schmid. Supply: Australia, Germany.
Earnings: Eli Lilly, Uber, Walt Disney, SanDisk, Siemens Energy, Infineon, Deutsche Post, Glencore, Novo Nordisk.
Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks rally on AI comeback while crude tumbles on US/Iran optimism
SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: Bulls in control
As noted earlier, bulls took control following the break of 28596, running through resistance like melted Swiss cheese.
Two obstacles remain, however, at 29851 and 30340 before NAS100 can make an attempt to join the record high club.
If not, expect a bid on any deep dip unless sub-28596 trades.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: Bulls tasted and swallowed it whole
I noted yesterday , with the record high at 7624 so close bulls can taste a breakout. If so, then 7624 would need to become support to open the door to 7650 with potential for 7800 but didn’t think it would come on the radar in one day.
So now what? Too far, too fast or full steam ahead?
On the upside, 7800 looks inviting but is one of those pivotal round numbers that could cause a pause. In any case, expect support on any deep dips barring any surprise headlines
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