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USDJPY WEEKLY: Confirms a downtrend
Break of 155 confirms a weekly chart downtrend that shows a risk for 152.00-07 while it trades below 155.
In the absence of nearby support, expect 153.50 to be pivotal (i.e. above it range is to 155, below it opens the door to 152) and 154 ahead of it.
To state the obvious, 155+ would be needed to cool the risk.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is starting the week on a soft note led by a USDJPY plunge through 155. Offsets are seeing lags elsewhere (e.g. EURJPY) as unwinding of short JPY crosses are again helping to drive the currency higher. There has been little or no chatter of another BoJ ambush, which in any case has turned technicals in its favor.
US is closed today in a week highlighted by the ECB decision and US inflation reports.
USDJPY found some 📈buyers near the crucial 155.00 level early on Friday, a zone previously defended by FX intervention, following a sharp two-day drop from 160.00.
The focus now shifts to the US nonfarm payrolls report due at 12:30 GMT. While traders remain laser-focused on inflation after Fed Governor Waller pushed September rate-hike odds down to 50%, a solid jobs print could still prompt policymakers to hike rates
Meanwhile, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, reiterated that Tokyo remains on high alert to intervene against excessive yen weakness
USDJPY 🚨saw the strongest movements in yesterday’s session, with the bearish pressure🚨 lingering today. USDJPY is hovering in the🚨 157.20 area more than two big figures below Tuesday’s close.
Comments from BoJ member Takata about the BoJ not being confined to 25bps increments, dovish rhetoric from New York Fed President Williams and stronger Japanese data have most likely played a key role in the USDJPY decline, although a mini-intervention or a rate check from the Fed cannot be excluded
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading weaker led by USDJPY which has extended yesterday’s slide after breaking a 4- day pattern around 160.
Others are following with a lag,m suggesting frirmer JPY crosses where the market is having more trpuible absorbing the USD selling side *i.e. USDJPT selling) of the trade.
US yields have slipped a touch,crude oil consolidating,.
US Weekly Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI due later.
USDJPY 4 HOUR: Path of least resistance
Trend: Retracement risks stalling   Momentum: Up stalled
Extending its trade around 160 to 4 days in a row. Pause just above 159.40 so far checking the downside and keeping focus on 160. Below 159.40 would shift focus from 160 to  layers of support from 158.99-159.24 below it6. Meanwhile, market follows the path of least resistance buying JPY on its crosses.
Forex Market Snapshot: New month, new ball game
As suggested yesterday, USD selling appeared to be driven by month end related flows and this has proved to be the case with the currency firming today although for the most part with limited follow through (AUD and NZD) underperforming as mood turns tio risk off).
The focus, meanwhile, is not on forex but on rising oil prices that have helped trigger what is being described as a rout (i.e. higher yields) in the global bond market (e.g. JGB 10 year hit 3%, a 30 year high).
In forex, the USDJPY test of 160+ again (3rd day) Â between 160.29 and 160.02) has raised an intervention alert, which is being encouraged by Treasury Secretary Bessent comments calling for a firmer JPY.
Looking ahead, US ISM PMI highlights the economic calendar with added attention on the prices paid component.
USDJPY DAILY: Where is resistance?
Bessent says disorderly yen moves can destabilize global markets (Reuters)While USDJPY 160 is the obvious focus, the BoJ intervention ambush, supported by Treasury Secretary Bessent, has left little in the way of resistance other than 160.64 = =61.8% OF 163.98 => 155.23
in this case, the threat of intervention is likely more of a deterrent than the actual event, which should it occur would find likely buyers at lower levels (unless 155.23 is broken).
In the meantime, 160 is pivotal (Friday high 160.20) with support starting at the former 159.78 high
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar seems set to end the week on the defensive as it trades lower ahead of the US open. US bond yields have steadied and stocks are up but talk the U.S. fiscal position, with the total deficit surpassing $40 trillion grabbing headlines and rising, is acting as a weight on the dollar.
- AUD and NZD outperforming,
- USDJPY is weaker after completing a 61.8% retracement (159.11) but is still above 158
- GBPUSD has extended its high, marginally so far, Â through a 1.3658 target
- EURUSD retested its 1.1710 high, holding so far
- USDCAD extended its low but so far holding above 1.3730 support
USDJPY 4 HOUR: Confounding
Bounce off (just above) 158.00 and a higher low confounding the general bearish USD trend.
Charts show little until 159.77 other than 159.105 = 61.8% so look for  159.00 to be pivotal.
No apparent catalyst  other than the uptick in US yields and weak JPY crosses (vs. Gold and Crypto as well).
Forex Market Snapshot
Crude oil holding firm and long dated Treasury yields near multi-decade highs amid US-Iran uncertainty have set a risk off mood, This has seen the dollar trade on the firmer side akthough so far with limnited follow through.
NZD is underperforming while USDJPY too a step closer to 160 (High 159.78) but no further given the risk of a BoJ ambush.
USDJPY 1 HOUR: Â Wary of the BoJ
Trend: Mixed (short up, long term down)
Momentum: Mixed
Traders will be on BoJ intervention alert between 159.50-00 even though key chart resistance is not until 160-161 with 160.53 = 61.8%
Barring a BoJ ambush, expect support below the market while trade is above 158.85
USDJPY 1 HOUR –  Yields confound
Trend: Down Momentum: Stalled?
Bounce in US yields despite weaker US data confounding the bears and has lifted USDJPY. USDJPY bounce from a pause above 158.57 would need to establish above 159.50 to put 160 and a BoJ alert in play.
Elsewhere EURUSD failed to hold a break of 1.1581 and GBPUSD failed to hold its 1.3550 break.
US yields ticking up after front running lower ahead of data (2 year yield now close to unchanged on the day, 10 year up)
Seeing some modest correlations with USD following (cautiously as there should be limit on yields upside and market more sensitive to a dip than a blip).
Next data: U if M Consumer Sentiment
Addendum: Brief USD blip setup a fresh run to downside… EURUSD testing its 1.1581 August range top. GBPUSD testing 1.3550+. AUD and CAD extending highs. USDJPY lower on the day but still above 158.42-57 support.
