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USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
The key flow giving EURUSD support is a firmer EURJPY ahead of the BoJ decision early Tuesday.
If you want to sell JPY and not force the BoJ to intervene, one way is to follow the path of least resistance, which is on its crosses.
The chart shows 3 levels of resistance above the market and on the downside, needing to hold the 162.17 level to keep a bid.
As SF Monege pointed out. the prudent approach is to step back and let the dust settle on the BoJ decision as all that is certain is that there should be volatility following it.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
THE FOCUS TO START THE WEEK WILL BE ON USDJPY AND JJPYCROSSES AHEAD OF THE BOJ MARCH 19 DECISION.
The only levels that really matter are 148 and 150 as key levels lie outside of it although 148.03 (and the trendline) are key supports on this chart (suggests 149 as the midpoint)
There are several articles on the BoJ and JPT in our new and outstanding blog
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
Some pre-BoJ meeting cold feet have JPY trading weaker
Offsets out of EURJPY buying are helping so far to keep EURUSD above 1.0867 (see post below)
Rising red AT lines show risk to the upside as long as it stays above 148.00-04 but…
Major resistance is not until the upper 150+ so not close to key levels.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
Key levels are obvious
148.30 resistance (void above it)
148 sets the biasUSDJPY finding support despite the risk of the long-awaited rate hike next week, neutralized by higher US bond yields.
USDJPY 15 MIN CHART
Let’s take a look at a shorter-time frame chart
USDJPY has backed off from a tepid test of 148ish and is still trapped with a bid while above 147.70 support (noted earlier).
See my blog article Is a BoJ Rate Hike Discounted? How Will USDJPY React?
EURJPY 4-Hour Chart
Red AT lines are now dominating as pre-BpJ trading sees USDJPY firm back towards 148 and offsets giving EURUSD some support.
Levels are clear on the chart with a bid while above 161.56 and the trendline.
These are fickle times ahead of the BoJ but for now there seems to be some cold feet from the JOY longs.
USDJPY 30 MIN CHART – Correcting but still below the latest breakdown level
A failure to decisively break below 146.50 leaves the range to 148. On the other side, only 148+ would deflect risk on the downside.
As I noted, 147.61 was a breakdown level so the one blocking a shift in risk back to 148. So far the rebound has paused just below it.
Intra-day levels are in the chart.
NOTE
USDJPY bounced after BoJ Gov Ueda, testifying, gave no hint of a rate hike at next week’s meeting. He said we will see what data shows later in the week.
If trading USDJPY, do it intra-day as one off-hand comment overnight can send this pair up or down as market awaits next week’s BoJ decision.
US CPI next on deck.
A bit different approach to USDJPY
As major supports behind this Up trend are far and away right now -143.250 & 139.000, only approach to trading USDJPY is intraday – time frames from 1h and bellow.
But if we look at it on this Daily chart, the following can be concluded – if in next two days USD finds the strength to go above 148.800 (lots, I know we will be looking at the renewed and even stronger Rally Up.
However, ” If” is not a reliable trading tool, but “Wait and see” comes as a good strategy , so we should accept that approach…
In the mean time, as long as USD is on the defensive, Short it on the smaller time frames given Sell signals , be fast and do not be greedy .
USDJPY DAILY CHART
As noted last week, the break of 147.61 exposed 145.90 as the next target.
Another test just below 146.50 suggests this will be the pivotal level determining whether there will be a run at 145.90 and then 145.
As also noted (when USDJPY traded below 148), expect a limited USDJPY upside ahead of the March 18-19 BoJ meeting where there is a risk of the neverending story of a rate hike to bring Japan out of negative interest rates finally reaching a conclusion.
Range so far today 146.48-147.13
USDJPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Potential Scenarios
USDJPY’s downward momentum from 150.88 has extended to a low of 146.47, currently testing the support level at 145.89.
The initial resistance level is located at 147.25. As long as this resistance level remains intact, the downside move is likely to persist. A potential breakdown below the 145.89 support level might trigger further downside movement towards the 144.30 area.
On the upside, a decisive breakout above the resistance level at 147.25 would suggest that consolidation for the downtrend is underway, with the pair potentially encountering resistance around the 148.00 region.
USDJPY DAILY CHART: MELTDOWN
Red AT support lines are being broken like Swiss cheese in a market likely thinned awaiting the US jobs report today.
With consolidation around 148 failing to last, the break of 147.61 leaves a void until 145.90.
On the upside, resistance is now between 147.61=148.00. Only back above 148 would deflect the risk
From the earlier Reuters article, suggests a limited USDJPY upside ahead of the BoJ meeting:
Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials have begun ramping up their hawkish rhetoric and shown increasing confidence that the Japanese economy was moving towards the BOJ’s 2% inflation target, just ahead of the central bank’s March 18-19 policy meeting.
USDJPY 4-HOUR CHART — THE INVISIBLE HAND WINS
Those following my posts have seen me use the term “invisible hand” to describe some force preventing USDJPY from breaking the 150.89 level.
Looking at this 4-hour chart shows (note 3 lower AT blue lines on top) a currency running out of steam.
When you look at my charts take notice when you see 3 higher red or 3 lower blue lines (using The Amazing Trader = AT) as it is often followed by an acceleration of a move in the direction of the lines (applies to any time frame).
USDJPY DAILY CHART — THE DEVIL STRIKES BACK
An old-time Global-View member used to refer to the YEN as “The Devil” as it has ruined more trading careers than any other currency.
The YEN may have gotten its “Devil” nickname from this debacle: Rise and Demise of a Hedge Fund or How to Blow up Billions in One Year
I am posting a daily chart to show the next key support level at 147.61 but in the absence of any nearby resistance after the sharp fall, look for 148 to replace 150 as the new pivotal level. Below 147.61 shows a void until 145.90.
Back above 148.91-149.21 would be needed to negate the risk and shift the risk back to 150.
I will post a 4-hour chart next to show the top was pretty clear.
USDJPY DAILY CHART: We know the top but will the bottom hold?
The top for now is clear at 150.89
Support at 149.20 forms the bottom of the range, move today paused above it
But the key level is at 148.92
For today, focus is on Fed Chair Powell and how bond yields react will influence how USDJPY trades
Otherwise, 150 remains the ultimate bias setter, and the market likely in a sell on blips if(?) it can stay below it.
USDJPY 15 min chart – red lines dominating, momentum pointing up but faces the invisible hand
After yesterday’s false break to the downside we are back to staring at 150.89 and the invisible hand guarding it.
A break/close above 150.79 would produce an outside week key reversal BUT ONLY A FIRM BREAK OF 150.84-89 WOULD OPEN THE DOOR ON THE UPSIDE.
Expect support on dips as long as 150.30 holds.
USDJPY 4H Chart – Fibbo Fans