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XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: 4000 remains pivotal
Bounce back above 4000 confirms this as the pivotal (bias setting level) after a pause above key 3942-60 support..
On the upside, to put XAUUSD out of the danger zone and shift the focus from 4000, 4080 would need to be regained.
Meanwhile, continue to watch the risk on/off mood and whether GOLD continues to correlate..
Market Update: Disconnext?
A bit of a disconnext with the USD slipping (EURUSD lagging), US stocks off the lows (US500 back above 7500) while oil prices extend gains that saw XTIUSD break its down momentum (above 78.83) and US bond yields remainingt firm.
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Markets now on hold awaiting the US CPI report, especially after Fed’s Waller’s said yesterday if core CPI is hot, Fed will need to consider a near term rate-hike;EURUSD US500 XTIUSD
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading sifter failing to follow through on yesterday’s firmer close.
NZD is the outperformer followed by the CAD and AUD.
The CAD is firmer on the back of higher oil prices with the shift in risk to the downside coming from jast week’s break (cited here) of a 12-day pivot around 1.42.
Up next s June US CPI with attention on the core reading.
COMING UP: Data: UK BRC Retail Sales (Jun), Chinese Balance of Trade (Jun), German Wholesale Prices (Jun), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Jun), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jun), US CPI (Jun).
Events: Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Jul), ECB President Lagarde-US Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting. Speakers: Fed Chair Warsh, Goolsbee, Barr, Cook, Bowman; BoE Governor Bailey.
Supply: Australia, Japan, Netherlands, Germany.
Earnings: Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Fastenal, Ericsson.
Market Update: Reality check
US equities having a reality check with increased US-Iran hostilities, firmer oil, and rising US bond yields forcing stocks to take blinders off.
US500 7500-05 holds the key with a firm break putting 7420-70 on the radar.
NAS100 failure to reach 30K with a solid 29853 resistance blocking the way, needs to regain 29334 or risk shifts to 29K and the 28676 low.
US400 N AS100
re “US military will begin enforcement of a naval blockade”
apparently the ‘will’ has now become “US reinstating”that should mean more repeat n rinse repeat n rinse of mutual spankings
and so speculative trading on who can out-wait and outlast who
sofar not clear how iran expects to compel US military to evacuate from m/east
Risk takes a hit… yields tick up, USD ticks up following Waller commentsd
Markets reacting to the headline
Fed’s Waller (voter) says if there is another hot reading on core inflation this week, the Fed will need to consider rate hike in near term
- Would need to see several months of lower core inflation to feel inflation is moving in right direction.
- Concerned about elevated pace of core inflation.
- Still a credible case for inflation to fall back to 2% without higher rates.
Market Update: Markets turn defensive
EURUSD pivoting 1.14 after failing to reach 1.1450. 1.1384 guards key kevels at 1.3461 and 1.1324 on the downside.
US500 turning defensive but keeps its bid as long as it trades above 7500-05
XTIUSD seeing a higher low ($71.00 on this CFD chart) but would need to move above 78.83 to build momewntum and break the downside risk.
EURUSD US500 XTIUSD
US President Trump says the Strait is open and will remain open, with or without Iran; US will be will be reimbursed a rate of 20% on all cargo shipped for costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security
FULL POST: The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran. We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. The process and formation will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Reaction Details
- Immediate upside in Energy benchmarks after this post.
- DXY moves into the green on the session, rising 0.1% within four minutes – to the detriment of energy-importer currencies.
- Brent Sept’26 rises USD 1.10/bbl within four minutes.
- Stocks move lower, ES falls 0.5% to session lows, but pares around half of the move within four minutes.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE Ranges but for how long
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: Ranges but foir how long?
Consolidating between 29334 and 29853 on this CFD chart after finding the top end too hard to crack.
Now dependent on 29334 holding to keep the downside contained and prevent the focus shifting to 29000 and the 28678 low
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