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Alphabet Inc. – GOOG
GOOG posted stronger-than-expected Q2 profit growth; cloud revenue rose 82% YoY. Company raised 2026 capex guidance to $205B from $195B, signaling faster near-term investment.
GOOG CDS spreads jumped to a record ~67 bps after Q2 showed negative free cash flow; traders noted higher perceived credit risk tied to debt for data centers, chips and AI models.
GOOG’s YouTube grew in UK 2025: TV viewing 19 min/day per person, total devices 41 min/day per person, weekly reach for 75+ viewers 33%.And yet here we are – struggling to fill up the gap from 5 days ago…340 is the level that represents now Major Resistance, endangering Google to the downside reaching 270..
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: Support holds but risk remains
With repeated attempts to test the 7375 lows stalling it would take a move above 7491 (and 7500) to negate the risk,
Otherwise, risk stays on the downside but contained unless the low is taken out. Shoud 7375 be firmly taken out, little on charts until 7300.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: Trading on hope?
Holding above the 27444 low (27484 low) giving some hope for the battered bull side but would need to regain 28K (tested earlier) to slow the risk. Otherwise, risk stays on the downside.
Only above 28595 and the 4 hour trendline would negate the risk.
Focus looking ahead to the FOMC and big tech earnngs
US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: NXPI, STX, SWKS, TER, F, BE, VRT, VFC, HUM, GEHC, GFS, JCI, PG, GRMN
ES +0.2% NQ +0.1% RTY +0.1%
AUDUSD DAILY: 9-day pattern broken
Break of a 9-day pivot around .7000 yesterday (well documented here befrrehand) sent a bearish signal. The break of .6962, the bottom of the 9-day range exposes .6906 as the next target.
On the upside, back above .6962 would cool the risk but only .7000+ woul;d negate it.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 1 HOUR: Double bottom, double top
Pause above 4000 (2-day double bottom at 4010-11) would need to break 4047 (double top) and 4055 to reverse momentum to the upside.
Otherwise, while momentum is still pointed down, expect more choppy trade unless either side of 4000-10 or 4047-55 is broken
EURUSD DAILY: 7 day pattern
Extended its trade around 1.14, which has now traded in each of the past 7 days.
Range over this period has been 1.1353-1.1435, low was set yesterday before a bounce to 1.14.
As can be seen by moves in USDCAD after breaking a 12-day pivot around 1.42 and yesterday’s break of a 9-day pattern around AUDUSD .7000, it pays to keep an eye on EURUSD’s pivot around 1,14, The only difference is that 1.42 and .70 are more important pivotal levels than 1.14.
Onus would seem to be on the bull side to break the pattern as chart shows consolidation but with a greater risk on the downside. Let’s see if the reaction to the FOMC resolves the battle.
Forex Market Snapshot
A bit of a disconnect with crude oil up, US bond yields up slightly and the USD trading mixed as markets show a reluctance to chase war headlines too far.
AUD, the underperformer, has seen AUDUSD extend its slide after breaking a 9-day pivot around .7000 (bearish signal) yesterday.
The JPY is outperforming, suggesting AUDJPY selling has been a dominant flow as expectations of an RBA rate hike were scaled back after the CPI report.
A key focus today will be on the FOMC decision and Chair Warsh’s press conference.
US official says Iran launched missiles at a US base in Jordan, but noted missiles were intercepted, according to Axios
[MARKET UPDATE] crude futures gain with WTI crude up around 2.3% to return above the USD 81/bbl level following reports of explosions in Jordanian airspace and that a US base was potentially targeted by Iranian missiles
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