[Mtl JP]

DXY 97.98 at 5:22 AM EDT

hot. may get hotter. If it gets hotter (98-98.25ish), with it will increase odds of it getting cooler

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…

… markets getting a reprieve from a hyper focus on tariff news as they await the release of U.S. June CPI

The dollar trading lower as it consolidates after opening the week on a firmer note

USDJPY backed off after making a run at 148 (high 147.82) but remains above 147.50

EURUSD is up but still beloow 1.17

Gold is firmer. Bitcoin is lower

US stocks are firmer

US bond yields down slightly ahead of CPI

[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.3895
–
Canadian CPI for june
exp’tation 1.9 per cent vs 1.7 per cent in may
hooray, no reason for tim to be cutting

[ST London]

Trump’s tariff threats are being treated as TACO and a negotiating tactic. Go with the flow but be on guard in case markets are wrong.

[GVI Forex 2]

See detailed previews

TUE: OPEC MOMR; Chinese House Prices (Jun), Retail Sales (Jun), GDP (Q2), German WPI (Jun), EZ Industrial Production (May), German ZEW (Jun), US CPI (Jun), NY Fed Manufacturing (Jul), Canadian CPI (Jun)

[GVI Forex 2]

EU prepares just in case

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Mexico fights back?

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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD

Trend: down

Blue Amazing Trader (AT) ladder lines indicate strong momentum

1.3370 is a long cited target… exposed while below 1.3494

Note, the catalyst for Monday’s fall was a firmer EURGBP, so keep an eye on this cross

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

Keep it simple

Trend up but faces a key pivotal levek (148)

Keep it simple

Above 147.50 exposes 148.02… above 148.02 expose 148.65 And 150.40

Below 147.50 cools the risk but only back below 146,74 would negate it.

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

Impressive start to the week here as well, shrugging off a lower gap opening, finding support in our 22600-60 band and then bouncing back in range of its record 22935 high BUT

To expose the high, 22877 needs to become support. Otherwise, expect support as long as it trades above 22600.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Impressive start to the week, shrugging off a lower gap opening, pausing above 6219 and then bouncing back in range of its record 6294 high BUT

To put the high at risk, 6272 would need to become support.

Otherwise, consolidation with support as long as 6220 holds.

US600 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD (Crude Oil)

Failure at $70 has seen a sharp retreat that needs to hold $66.96 or see a run towards $65.00-20

XTIUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

Nvidia is reaching a new high like every second day…

Now when it found a footing above 161.25 – channel trendline, we can expect way higher levels

Next target is around 172.20

Looking at the big picture only logical overall target should be in 210.00 / 220.00 area

[Belgrade Bobby]

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. – AMD

AMD continuing to push up in front of strong resistance at 147.75 – previous high

Needs to take it out to test 151.00 – level that if it overcomes would lead it towards 161.00 and higher

Supports: 143.15, 141.80 & 135.45

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio continued its Rally with high at 4.22 and now we are above mid channel line at  4.09

Resistance above the head:

4.22, 4.25 & 4.45

Supports: 4.09, 4.05 & 4.02

Targeting 4.80

[ST London]

Markets treating Trump’s tariff threats as TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) or that trading partners will buckle under and negotiate a deal.

Thus the surprise would be if he carried out a threat. Markets seem to be betting worst case will not happen.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

XRP clearly took out 3.0000 today – high 3.0355 ,  but I would like to see it close above it if not today – tomorrow.

That would give us a confirmation that this rally will continue uninterrupted towards 3.80

If not, we would be seeing a correction with supports:

2.8000, 2.6500 & 2.4500

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

ETHUSD – Ethereum

Ether continuing its Bullish rally , and if closes tonight above 2990.00 it will make another push up tomorrow.

Target is now at 3450.00

Supports: 2940.00, 2875.00 & 2825.00

Currently consolidating and needs to push over 3025.00 to return into offensive mode

[GVI News]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The upcoming economic data releases for the week of July 14, 2025, are set to reveal how ongoing global trade tensions—particularly between the U.S. and China—are reshaping economic performance across major regions. In Asia, China’s Q2 GDP is expected to grow at a slightly slower pace of 5.1% year-over-year and 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the early effects of recent tariff escalations. Chinese trade data, including a forecasted $112.6 billion surplus, will be closely watched for signs of export resilience or redirection, particularly toward Europe. Meanwhile, Singapore and India will also publish trade and inflation figures, and Australia’s labor market data will help clarify the Reserve Bank’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady.

In Europe, data suggest the continent may be benefitting indirectly from the U.S.-China trade standoff. German trade posted a solid €18.4 billion surplus in May, though exports to the U.S. dropped sharply. Indicators like the RWI/ISL container throughput index and the North Range Index point to increased shipping activity, implying that China could be rerouting goods to European markets to avoid U.S. tariffs. Eurozone inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.0% y/y, offering some policy stability ahead.

In the U.S., markets will be focused on the June CPI report, retail sales, and the Fed’s Beige Book. Inflation is projected to edge higher to 2.7% y/y, with core inflation hitting 3.0%, though lower energy prices may help limit the headline figure. Retail sales are likely to remain sluggish, with a forecasted 0.1% monthly increase, as consumers appear fatigued from prior front-loaded spending. The Beige Book may provide critical qualitative insight into how businesses are navigating this volatile environment, especially in light of recent hiring slowdowns and muted demand.

Econoday

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

After reaching higher as expected, EUR failed to go through Resistance at 1.16950, and now officially the support trendline at 1.16550 is no longer a trendline

Resistances: 1.16700, 1.16850 & 1.16950

Supports: 1.16600, 1.16550 & 1.16350

This is still a correction and not a fully developed downtrend – only below 1.15750 that would change

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Momentum: Still up on longer-term charts but broken on the 1 hour chart AFTER

Disappointing after hitting a wall at 3375

Downside contained if 3310-30 holds as support, below the bottom end would put a nail in the uptrends coffin.

Current range: 3340-75 where 3350 likely pivotal in setting its tone

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

Riiight…
–
…”The EU imports nearly 90% of its natural gas, with Russia still accounting for a significant share in the supply despite sanctions.

In May, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a plan to phase out all Russian oil and gas imports by the end of 2027, as part of the EU’s REPowerEU roadmap, which aims to eliminate the bloc’s dependence on fossil fuels from the country and shift to renewable sources.” …/.

[Mtl JP]

trump may want to heed market sentiment
–
Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Russian export buyers unless Ukraine peace deal is reached by September
Trump’s tariffs could hit China, India and Brazil especially hard. All three countries are top buyers of Russian fossil fuels.

“We’re very, very unhappy with them, and we’re going to be doing very severe tariffs, if you don’t have a deal in 50 days, tariffs at about 100%, they call them secondary tariffs,” Trump said

In the mesntime , bloomberg reports that “Europe’s natural gas inventories are particularly low for this time of year, Bloomberg has reported, citing rising demand for air conditioning amid a regional heatwave.

Underground storage sites are currently around 62% full, the outlet stated, while typically reserves reach around 80% by early summer, helping ensure a robust buffer ahead of the winter heating season” …/..

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading tip

Tip: Forex market rarely moves in a straight line and often needs a faIled rally or break to setup a run at the low or high.

EURUSD was a good example, today,made a run at 1.17 several times, never getting past 1.1698, followed by a run towards the 1.1654, not tested but esposed.

[GVI News]

Divergence… forex market seems to be reacting to Trump’s hard line on Russia but stocks not reacting

[GVI Forex 2]

Answer to my earlier question:

While below 1.17, EURUSD has been trading bid in an offered market

[GVI Forex 2]

USD popped higher on this headline

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

the chitt show continues …
–
28 mins ago Reuters:
Fed’s Powell asks for inspector general review of project criticized by Trump officials
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has asked the U.S. central bank’s inspector general to review the costs involved in the renovation of its historic headquarters in Washington, as Trump administration officials intensify their criticism of how the Fed is being run.

and who is the “inspector general” : Michael Horowitz

[Mtl JP]

Who is howard schneider ? a reporter

Why Trump’s push for a 1% Fed policy rate could spell trouble for US economy
A Fed policy rate that low is not typically a sign that the U.S. is the “hottest” country in the world for investment, as Trump has said.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/why-trumps-push-1-fed-policy-rate-could-spell-trouble-us-economy-2025-07-14/

[Author]

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