[SF Monedge]

Having difficulty seeing UsdChf doing much after 9000 is seen.

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 8791

be nice if puppy goes for 89

after that re-assess

[SF Monedge]

Sell side of UsdChf and others related are working well.  Hard to imagine stocks dumping.

[GVI Forex 2]

Biggest losers in this order

USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD ALL ABOUT TIED

[SF Monedge]

For clarification I mean the currencies themselves not the pairs.  So it would be the sell side of UsdChf and UsdCad.

[SF Monedge]

I’m in sell side of UsdChf and UsdCad to hold, not intraday.

[SF Monedge]

In a while after some more market activity, I like the sell side of Aussie, buy side of UsdChf and UsdCad and will have to wait a while for Kiwi to do something because it is in dead straits limbo at the current price.

[SF Monedge]

Ok Franc is about finished (at least for now at 8654) with the risk premium from Geo conditions I mentioned Friday so it is likely to turn around here.  So UsdChf is likely to remain a little under pressure overall it just might give people another chance to get in.

[SF Monedge]

A CTA in San Diego California (Southern California Naval Base and beautiful city) reminded me long ago that “markets overshoot.”  I am of the opinion that may apply to today’s price activity in some currencies but the dominant trend of say a week time frame has not been broken for them.  UsdChf  included, where the dominant trend is still the sell side even with the overshoot.

In my view EurUsd remains a buy and has not even overshot the trend yet.  I really hope Geo events do not change that because it would also mean stocks get pummeled along with a lot of people’s net stock worth.  Fridays tend to have that dynamic quite a bit.

[SF Monedge]

The best position of the day since the time horizon will run out on the buy side of everything versus Yen, Euro, Sterling, other would be the sell side of UsdChf.  Already short there and holding into the close.  Tremendous Geo risk at present.

I tend to have a smidge more insight in Geo  risk matters due to my background  than a lot of people but even simply being aware of what is crossing newswires you can see how dangerous the waters are at present.

[SF Monedge]

If you happened to catch my October 21, 2024 at 12:10 am post it was dead on accurate.

Now I am thinking UsdJpy, if it is going to run into trouble will be around the 151.20/30 area.  I have been on the buy side and am now flat in that pair.  You could see the undertow across certain barometers and markets when Euro 108 was under fire and stocks were a part of that with certain metrics showing strength into the selling.  Jay’s reference to options defense was a part of it.  My preference has been the sell side of UsdChf due to the post I referenced and the elements in it.

[SF Monedge]

Sell side of UsdChf looks fairly sturdy so far.  Largely war related.

[SF Monedge]

Contrary to popular belief in some circles, US arms sales to Israel have not declined in recent years.  The average annual sales to Israel were just over $1 Billion from the years 2015 through 2019, with not even ½ of $1 Billion in 2019.

In the year 2020 that figure skyrocketed to over $5.3 Billion US Dollars. – Per Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Side note but related, I am still on the sell side of EurJpy and UsdChf primarily for the moment.

[SF Monedge]

On that note I am entertaining the sell side of UsdChf post data from a bit higher than current market.  Overall bias is still strong USD but this is likely an isolated very near term sell cycle and might not last long.

[SF Monedge]

Food for thought.

1.      Why would you pay attention to a “bias indicator” based on the total of retail customers of a brokers client base knowing the vast majority of retail traders are wrong and lose their money?  Nice gimmick.

2.      A well known and highly frequented  FX “advisor” frequently quoted in news feeds, primarily to retail audience noted very early this morning before the action really hit that “UsdChf is trading flat, best to stay away.”  Why?  Would it not be better to learn how and why to be active in it successfully?  The pair dropped over 100 points in a short period of time.  They don’t know what they are doing beyond  average in my opinion.  They do have solid informational value if you are novice.

3.      Why would you not listen to a highly skilled and very kind former bank Trader like Jay Meisler instead?  Or a former in demand CTA such as myself or the other actual and very skilled former bank traders who frequently post here in GVI?

I sold UsdJpy right before it collapsed last night in late Asia.  I have been long AudUsd since yesterday.  I have been short UsdChf since yesterday against a lot of opinions to be long US Dollar.  I have been long GbpUsd since yesterday.  Picking away at EurJpy on both sides the entire way.  You won’t find that with Youtube or TikTok gurus or the aforementioned not as stellar as advertised advisory sources which are popular.

You will find it here in GVI.

Disclaimer – I am not paid by GVI or under contract with GVI in any fashion.  I am simply commenting in the hope of being helpful and enjoy the input from others here.

[SF Monedge]

There are conditions which point to decent oddsof UsdChf stalliing the bleeding around 8390 but as Jay has said for a very long time “be careful about catching falling knives.”  So participate owning responsibility of your decisions.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4 HOUR CHART – See the reaction to the SNB rate decision (High for the week .8518)

SNB cuts policy rate by 25bps as expected to 1.00%; prepared to intervene in FX market as necessary. Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the current quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term (Source: Newsquawk.com)

[SF Monedge]

I like the sell side of UsdChf up here the 8515 area headed into the weekend based on event risk and a few other things.

[SF Monedge]

I won’t take any “risk on” positions such as buying Eu until the shooting starts from Iran.  After the initial selling off and the US/Britain start firing back then ok.  Until then it will be trailing sell stop orders in EurUsd, EurJpy, and UsdChf and perhaps EurChf.

If the Islamic terrorists that Msnbc are so proud of actually do enough damage the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group will end that 3,000 year war in a week.

[GVI Forex 2]

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex and Carry Trade (follow ups)

How do we know that cross flows are driving the market?

When two currencies move in opposite directions you can assume there are real money cross flows

Look at USDJPY and USDCHF (both up sharply) vs firmer commodity currencies and GBP is up as well once the carry trade unwinds ended.

Currently:

USD STRONGER

USDJPY +2.0%
USDCHF +1.4%

USD WEAKER

GBPUSD =0.3%
USDCAD -0.3%
AUDUSD +0.7%
NZDUSD +1.1%

[GVI Forex 2]

How do we know that cross flows are driving the market?

When two currencies move in opposite directions you can assume there are real money cross flows

Look at USDJPY and USDCHF (both up sharply) vs firmer commodity currencies and GBP is up as well.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF 5 Min Chart – 15.01.2015.

This should make you think and get some perspective when there is an Important Data/News/Central Bank decision

Almost 2.000 pips in 10 minutes, with over 1.400 Pips GAP .

This kind of development will Kill not only your margin, but yours kids college fund, take your home and your panties….

So start thinking and learning NOW.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF 5 Min Chart – 15.01.2015.

This should make you think and get some perspective when there is an Important Data/News/Central Bank decision

Almost 2.000 pips in 10 minutes, with over 1.400 Pips GAP .

This kind of development will Kill not only your margin, but yours kids college fund, take your home and your panties….

So start thinking and learning NOW.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF 5 Min Chart – 15.01.2015.

This should make you think and get some perspective when there is an Important Data/News/Central Bank decision

Almost 2.000 pips in 10 minutes, with over 1.400 Pips GAP .

This kind of development will Kill not only your margin, but yours kids college fund, take your home and your panties….

So start thinking and learning NOW.

[SF Monedge]

I see reason to sell UsdChf if it roams about another 20 pips or so higher.

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

As you can see from this Daily chart, USDCHF is losing segment by segment – so going lower you would say – Well NO….it is doing time within a Range from March of this year.

Between 0.87 and 0.92

So there is an obvious Buying interest , and if it succeed in holding above 0 .87 /0.88, we might be witnessing something that CHF is famous for – a Rubber band  effect – if EURUSD starts falling , CHF will fall even more , and dramatically – just like when you release the rubber band on one side.

Last time that happened was if I remember correctly sometime around 1997.

Friend of mine called me from London to congratulate me on job well done – was Long USDCHF ( and no one else was – that’s the reason for rubber band run) …We had long talks on that issue prior to the start of the rally – he had to take a good care of my position as it was his brokerage on the other end 😀 Nuff said…Watch how it develops – I would say September, but August can be a month for big mess sometimes…

[Robinson Izuchukwu]

I am expecting uptrend here on USDCHF, please I’m I even improving on the drawing of trendlines. DAILY CHART

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

My Magical ( and historical at the same time ) Trend Lines proved right….once again.

So nuff of self patting myself – here are the levels we are looking at :

Supports : 0.88250 , 0.87300 , 0.86350 &  0.85600

Resistances : 0.88950 , 0.89450 , 0.89750 & 0.90000

As long as we stay Above 0.85600, USDCHF will have a chance to reach higher then 0.92 , even as high as 0.94800 & 0.96850 .

[SF Monedge]

If you are a participant in EurChf (Eur vs Swiss Franc) my sentiment is to stay with the buy side if it nears the 9720 area.  Selling the pair from current values or a bit higher would be a contra-position.  That said, I have the same sentiment for the pair entering the weekend as UsdChf noted below.

[Mtl JP]

EURDLR 108.92

Puppy is likely reflecting political betting – but I could be wrong

On the euro the betting would be on lagarde’s intentions and

On the USD the betting would likely be on biden (and not so much on Jerome anymore atm)

I am trying to take my bead off the US bond yields (as Jay points out) and USDCHF