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BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
The jury is still out whether Bitcoin at $70K: Is BTCUSD Truly Bullish or Just “Bid in an Offered Market”? (scroll below to read the article) but the failure to establish 70K has setup potential for a daily downtrend.
For that to occur and confirm BTCUSD was bid in an offered market, 65K (64986) would need to be firmly broken.
Otherwise, 70K remains the focus.
BTCUSD DAILY CHART
Timely article in our blog
Bitcoin at $70K: Is BTCUSD Truly Bullish or Just “Bid in an Offered Market”?
NEWSQUAWK MARKET WRAP (2)
It was a risk-off session with oil prices surging and equities tumbling as we head into a weekend of risk. WTI reclaimed USD 100/bbl post-settlement while E-mini futures briefly fell to sub 6,400. The moves came despite Trump’s olive branch Thursday evening, where he postponed the attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure and power plants by another 10 days, taking the new deadline to April 6th.
Elsewhere, T-notes saw two-way price action with initial downside fading throughout the US session despite the negative newsflow and positioning elsewhere in markets, perhaps indicating some profit taking or month end rebalancing taking place.
In FX, the Dollar outperformed while CHF and GBP lagged. USD/JPY rose above 160. Gold and Silver were bid as bonds pared the overnight moves, while Bitcoin was hit. Cyber Security names were hit by an AI-disruption story. Reports dropped of a new leaked Anthropic AI model, “Claude Mythos”, which the company believes poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks.
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NAS100 (NASDAQ) WEEKLY CHART
Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks hit and oil surges into the weekend as geopolitical tensions remain high
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries mixed, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold up
COMING UP: Data: Spanish Retail Sales (Feb), EU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar), German Inflation Prelim. (Mar), US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar). Speakers: Fed’s Williams.
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US500 (SP500) WEEKLY CHART
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
BTCUSD down, XAUUSD up
- Trying to build up momentum off the higher lows cited earlier that would require a move through 4601 to break the range and then 4735 to fully negate the downside risk.
- Otherwise,,needs to hold 5480-00 to keep a bid, stronger if 4500 becomes support.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
U of M Final Consumer Sentiment: Headlines + Expectations revised lower, Inflation revised higher
EURGBP UPDATE
EURUSD and GBPUSD moving in opposite directions (EURUSD bouncing from 1.15 while GBPUSD slipped below 1.33) suggests real money buy order in EURGBP.
EURGBP
- Watch the top of its .8630-80 range, which needs to hold to ease offset pressures on respective pairs (on one or both)..
- Above .8680 is .8702-12
EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART
NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
Big picture:
- Falling into correction territory (-10%+)
- Weekly pattern continues with 5 down candles in a row (assuming a negative close today)
- Note large wicks each week indicate failed rally attempts followed by new lows.
- Next weekly supports on this CFD chart: 22672 and 21367
- On the upside, needs to regain 23660 (former lows) and 23800-22400 to postpone the risk
- Break of the weekly down candle pattern is needed to indicate a pause.
NAS100 WEEKLY CHART
XBRUSD (BRFENT OIL) UPDATE
- If you take a step back, XBRUSD is consolidating in a choppy (understatement) 96.09 = 119.25 range.
- What this means is there are no key levels within this range so let’s see if we can narrow it down.
- Currently., $100-$110 seems like a potential range with $105 being pivotal (e.g. bid while above it)
- Large wick on this chart (see arrow) underscores how liquidity may be an issue and a stop may not be a stop in this headline driven market.
- Barring a surprise headline, oil should keep a bid ahead of the weekend.
XBRUSD 4 HOUR CHART
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