[ST London]

Markets are clinging to hope and reacting to any glimmer, no matter what the source.

[Mtl JP]

Profit-making Suggestion – ?? –
thanks Kristalina

‘All roads lead to higher prices and slower growth,’ warns IMF chief as Iran war hits global economy cnbc

– IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva warned Monday that “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth”.
– Institution says shock will hit poor countries the hardest as war weighs on global oil supply

Higher inflation and weaker growth ahead are inevitable for the global economy as a consequence of the Iran war … “All roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,”

sounds like a no-brainer

[Mtl JP]

Betting on Oil’s Price
–
seems to be matter of being in tune with who or which headline the markets believes and is betting on:

Offbeat Wall Street research firm says it sent an analyst to Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what they learned cnbc

…”the analyst, whom the firm did not name due to the sensitivity of the activity, found that vessels are still moving through the strait, with traffic picking up in recent days to roughly 15 ships per day, according to the firm’s report posted on Substack. While far below normal levels, the flow suggests the disruption is partial and evolving rather than absolute.

“Tankers passing through four or five a day, completely dark on AIS. The volume, they said, is higher than what the data suggests, and it’s been accelerating in the past couple days through the Qeshm channel,” Citrini’s post said.”…/.

[Adam Global]

🇦🇺 AusUSD stuck inside the trendline 📈 above 0.6900

A breakout might come after USA data release 🤔

[Mtl JP]

US pre-market sentiment, faithful april 7th

In theory, today / tonite  should be an epic time  for degenerate traders

[Adam Global]

EurUsd still rejecting 1.1600 📉

While supporting on 1.1500📈

Right ✅️ now its on 1.15500

[Adam Global]

GBPUSD bouncing off my daily trendline on 1.32800

🤔maybe if i sell 📉 then TP on 1.3200

[Adam Global]

ßitcoin 📉 rejected $70K yet again

[Mtl JP]

Forex 2 / “monsters”   –  who are you refering to ?

[Adam Global]

GOLD still rejecting 4700.00 📉

Dropping below 4650.00📉  & aiming for 4600.00 on 161.8 Fib level

We’re all waiting for[ Durable good ] data

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: Mag-7, HUM/CVS/UNH/ELV, AVGO, ANET, CASY, ARM

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

Betting Issue: who is in charge – interlocutors

visualize

[Adam Global]

Oil 🛢 went up📈 more than 2% today then reversed 📉

🇮🇷🆚️🇮🇱🇺🇲

[GVI Forex 2]

News algos are running the trading asylum today and there is no shortage of headlines to feed the monsters.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Headl;ine whipsaw: One issue is who is in charge?

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 7th April 2026

• Pakistani reporter Anas Mallick suggested that the interlocutors are closer than ever for an agreement to get a “framework of understanding for ceasefire” between US and Iran.
• Crude futures reverse earlier gains amid some positive noise ahead of Iran deadline.=
• European bourses gain, UMG NA surges on PSH LN bid; US equity futures flat.=
• USD returns below the 100.00 handle on US/Iran optimism.=
• =Fixed benchmarks higher as energy continues to dictate price action.=
• =Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Durable Goods (Feb), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), Atlanta Fed GDP, President Trump’s Iran deadline, EIA STEO, Speakers including Fed’s Williams, Goolsbee & Jefferson, Supply from the US.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Shift to risk oin suggests markets trading on hope for a ceasefire

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XBRUSD (BRFENT OIL) 4 HOUR

Crude oil remains the focus for all global markets where, on this CFD feed, it remains bid while above 108.90 but continues to pause below $115.

Otherwise, it is a wait-and-see chop market waiting to see whether Pres T follows through on his Iran deadline threat or not.

Note Brent price feeds may differ for levels (not patterns) depending on whether they follow futures or spot.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) 1 HOUR

Remains within a 4600-4700/06 range where 4650 is setting the intra-day tone.

As noted, one can make the case for 4500-4800 being the broader range where 4650 is the pivotal midpoint.

With GOLD shunning its traditional safe haven role, it seems more closely correlated at times to the current risk on/off move, oil prices and moves in bond yields.

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The return from the long Easter break finds markets in a cautious mood as the Iran deadline looms after the close.

This has the USD trading a touch softer after firming earlier in what looks like the calm before the storm day or as the latest blip iup in  risk suggests a hope that the storm misses and does not materialize.

In Forex,

EURUSD focus remains on 1.1550 to set its intra-day tone

USDJPY paused just below the pivotal 160 level (BoJ?

)

.

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

MARKET UPDATE: fOLLOWING CRUDE OIL’S LEAD

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI News]

Here are 2 risk indicators using pivotal levels

EURUSD 1.1550 (short term, 1.15 longer term)… last 1.1542

BTCUSD 70K (currently below… last 68600)

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR

Similar to US500. We will see after Tuesday’s deadline whether the current rally is just a matter of feeling bid in an offered market.

To build momentum to the upside, 24550+ needs to be firmly regained.

On the downside, the trendline and 23804 need to hold to keep hopes to the upside alive.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 hour

Are stocks bid or bid in an offered market? Logic says the latter, price action  says  jury  is out.

Answer might come after Tuesday’s deadline with defensive trading likely ahead of it.

Resistance: 6620/36/97/6761

Supports: 4 HR trendline, 6536/6460/6377/10

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR

Trading GOLD would be a lot easier if it was acting as a safe haven and correlating with the risk on/off mood. Instead, it is doing the opposite and

Would need to make a firm break out of 4500-4800 to build momentum on either side.

Pivotal level: 4650= midpoint of 4600-4700 and 4500-4800

[Mtl JP]

to be fair:
Brent dipped to 109.45 during the presser
109.93 as I type this post-presser
–
“they have till 8pm tom night. After that no power plants, no bridges … stone age”
“re-opening strait is a very big priority”

brent 109.70
euro 1.1545
DLRx 99.977 2:52 PM EDT

[Mtl JP]

press conference does not seem to have anything to do with strait’s reopening
brent price uP (to 111-ish) confirms

next headline …

[Mtl JP]

EURUSD 1.1534
BRENT 110.70-ish
–
puppies trading in reverse correlation
techs suggest euro 1.15 = Sup

[Adam Global]

As I’ve said it

🇮🇷 🆚️🇺🇲🇮🇱

Possibility of a 45days cease-fire is impossible

Iran 🇮🇷 wants to be heard

Iran 🇮🇷 wants to be respected

Iran 🇮🇷 has demands too

USA 🇺🇸 is over demanding 📈

Now I’ll just wait here & wait for <span class=”bbp-author-name” style=”padding: 0px; margin: 0px 12px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; display: inline-block; clear: none;”>Mtl JP</span>

& wait again for Trump speech later📈 🇮🇷🆚️🇮🇱🇺🇲📉

[Mtl JP]

REUTERS
18 mins ago
–
Iran rejects ceasefire as deadline nears on Trump ‘hell’ ultimatum
The Iranian response consisted of 10 clauses, including an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait ​of Hormuz, ​lifting of ⁠sanctions, and reconstruction.

[Author]

Posts