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XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR
Keep an eye on GOLD as it was a leader and gave early signs of global markets reversing course.
More than reaching its next target at 4735 with a high at 4748. Always pay attention how XAUUSD trades vs. the “50” level, in this case pausing below 4750.
If 4750 is broken and becomes support, then 4899 becomes the target.
If not, then range is to 4600 with support as long as the trendline holds.
Forex Market Snapshot
The new quarter is starting off where the last one ended, which is in a risk on mood as markets trade on hope that signs of light at the end of the ME crisis tunnel may be on the horizon.
This has seen oil prices sag, stocks extend rebounds, gold extend its recovery and the dollar weaken.
With the long Easter break just two days away, it has been risk off positions unwinding and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) trades driving the price action, at least until the next set of news headlines.
In this regard, hope is not a trading strategy so keep an eye not only the headlines but the reaction as that will give the clue.
Note this is not generally a week where traders look to add to positions so beware of thinning liquidity as the long Easter break nears.
In order of currency strength vs the USD:
CHF (#1), AUD, GBP, EUR, NZD, CAD, JPY
In our b;pg
Gold’s Multi-Trillion Dollar Sell-Off: What Really Drove the Decline?
Understanding the Real Forces Behind the Gold Market Drop
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
Outside day key reversal has seen the break of 6437 make a textbook run at key 6522 resistance (high 6539).
Similar to NAS100, with month/quarter end over, test will be whether stocks can retain a bid ahead of the long Easter break given the headline risk.
To give this rebound legs, 6500-22 would need to become support.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR
Outside day key reversal has seen the break of 23375 make a textbook run at key 23772 resistance (high 23782). Firmly above 23772 would be needed to build momentum although it would then face layers of resistance above 24000.
Test will be whether stocks can retain a bid with month/quarter end over and ahead of the long Easter break given the headline risk, especially if crude oil can hold a bid.
XTUUSD (WTIUSD) 4 HOUR
It’s either month/quarter end, pre-Easter book squaring, trading on hope or news algos taking control but in any case, a tumble in o[l has had ripple effects in other markets.
XTIUSD now dependent on $100 holding to keep the downside in check as there is a void below it.
From Newsquawk:
[MARKET UPDATE] Stocks surge, oil tumbles, Dollar hit and Treasuries gain as Iranian President Pezeskhian says Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks
XBRUSD (BRENT OIL) UPDATE
News algos are running the asylum ina classic case of the reaction (spiuke down in crude) to news (from the ME) is what matters more than the news itself..
No change: On the downside, use 110 as a bias indicator (currently below) and midpoint of 105-115, bottom end needs to hold or 100-101 comes back in play.
XBRUSD 4 HOUR CHART
EURGBP 1 HOPUR
Lesson for trading at monbth end and the 4PM London fix
As posted earlier (EURGBP was at .8680)
Note EURGBP tends to be active at month end and influence respective spot pairs, EURUSD and GBPUSD so keep an eye on it
Post mortem:
EURGBP buy order => EURUSD bid (up), GBPUSD offered (lower)
Hint: masrket seems to be having more trouble absorbing the USD selling.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 1 HOUR
Bounce off the new 22774 low would need to solidly regain 23243 (nicked), 23344. 23378 (for an outside day) to break momentum and then 23407 to shift risk to the upside.
Otherwise, range stays intact and dependent on 23042 holding to keep a bid and the focus away from the new low.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR
Whether it is month end or news algos reacting to a headline there is some life in stocks so far today.
To build on the bounce off the new 6310 low, 6437+ would be needed for an outside day and 6443+ to shift the focus back to 6500.
Otherwise, range is intact and dependent on 6378 holding to keep a bid and focus away from the new low.
US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: Mag-7, MKC, CEG, APLS, CNTA, MU/SNDK, FDS, SNX, DOCU
ES +0.7% NQ +0.6% RTY +1.1%
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- Mag-7: MSFT +1.4% GOOGL +1% META +1% AMZN +0.8% AAPL +0.7% NVDA +0.6% TSLA +0.5%
- AAPL: Removed vibe coding AI app-building app Anything from the App Store for violating guidelines
- MKC +5.5%: EPS & rev. beat; elsewhere, Unilever confirmed MKC talks’
- CEG -3%: Initial FY26 profit view way short of exp.
Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days
[MARKET UPDATE]
Pressure seen in fixed income and European/US equity futures as energy climbs ever closer to overnight highs (Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days
XTIUSD (WTIUSD) 4 HOUR
Key resistance: 107.27
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