[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

BTCUSD down, XAUUSD up

• Trying to build up momentum off the higher lows cited earlier that would require a move through 4601 to break the range and then 4735 to fully negate the downside risk.
• Otherwise,,needs to hold 5480-00 to keep a bid, stronger if 4500 becomes support.

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

…”The Dow continued to flirt with correction territory Friday after moving into it in morning trading. It’s currently down 9.9% from its recent high. The S&P 500 is around 8% below its record.” …

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1545 again
second run up to it

lets see how t gets treated by the 1.1550/75 zone

[Mtl JP]

euro run up to 1.1545 in bit of a sprint BUT
out of breath almost like an asthmatic lugging an oxygen tank

lets see if it tries for higher again
odds look low, (famous last words)

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1530-ish
–
Yesty Lagarde screamed n squealed that rising energy prices are now a shock beyond (her??) imagination

euro s likely going to have ahard time getting N of 1.1550-75

I am reminded of “A Change Would Do You Good” (Sheryl Crow)

[Mtl JP]

“wasted breath”
USDYEN 160
–
overnite katayama came out yapping something about “bold action” when her puppy was frollicking with this pricepoint.

Her YAK brought the puppy (dlryen) down some 25-30 pips only
still learning …

[Mtl JP]

Trading Theme for rest of the day now that we are past 10am NYT

Player be likely pricing their ability to distinguish between
bluster and substance, manipulation and corruption headlines

10-yr 4.45
SnP down -0.78%

[Mtl JP]

FYI and FWIW
Fed yakkers on deck:
11:00 barkin on “Economic Outlook”
11:30 paulson on “Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy”
11:30 daly at some “Monetary Policy Conference”

I am biased.
I doubt anything anyone of the above says will have market-moving impact

[GVI Forex 2]

U of M Final Consumer Sentiment: Headlines + Expectations revised lower, Inflation revised higher

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Adam Global]

AusUSD still trying to reject 0.6900📉

[Adam Global]

EurUsd still above 1.15000 📉

More bearish may come 📉

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Pulse 2

[Adam Global]

GBPUSD made me happy 💰🤑 touching 1.3300 📉

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Pulse 1

[Adam Global]

ßitcoin 📉 rejected $70K

Dropping towards $65K

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP UPDATE

EURUSD and GBPUSD moving in opposite directions (EURUSD bouncing from 1.15 while GBPUSD slipped below 1.33) suggests real money buy order in EURGBP.

EURGBP

• Watch the top of its .8630-80 range, which needs to hold to ease offset pressures on respective pairs (on one or both)..
• Above .8680  is .8702-12

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: AZN, CIBR, U, AGX, TRIP

ES -0.4% NQ -0.6% RTY -0.6%

• AZN +3.6%: Tozorakimab met primary endpoint in both OBERON and TITANIA Phase III trials
• CIBR -2.4%: Reports emerge of leaked Anthropic AI model, “Claude Mythos”; co. believes it poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks
• U +14.1%: Raised Q1 revenue view; PT raised at BofA
• AGX +9.5%: Earnings beat; upgraded at JPM to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’
• TRIP +3.8%: Upgraded at BofA to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

Big picture:

• Falling into correction territory (-10%+)
• Weekly pattern continues with 5 down candles in a row (assuming a negative close today)
• Note large wicks each week indicate failed rally attempts followed by new lows.
• Next weekly supports on this CFD chart: 22672 and 21367
• On the upside, needs to regain 23660 (former lows) and 23800-22400 to postpone the risk
• Break of the weekly down candle pattern is needed to indicate a pause.

NAS100 WEEKLY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

Big picture:

• 5 weekly down candles in a row (assuming a negative close today)
• Large wicks indicate failed rally attempts
• Key support at the recent 6435 low  with a void below it
• Back above 6495-00 is what is needed to cool the risk.

US500 WEEKLY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude oil extending its high (XBRUSD last at $108.45

Ripple effects:

• US bond yields up
• USD blips
• US stocks dip
• BTCUSD slips
• XAUUSD dips

[GVI Forex 2]

XBRUSD (BRFENT OIL) UPDATE

• If you take a step back, XBRUSD is consolidating in a choppy (understatement) 96.09 = 119.25 range.
• What this means is there are no key levels within this range so let’s see if we can narrow it down.
• Currently., $100-$110 seems like a potential range with $105 being pivotal (e.g. bid while above it)
• Large wick on this chart (see arrow) underscores how liquidity may be  an issue and a stop may not be a stop in this headline driven market.
• Barring a surprise headline, oil should keep a bid ahead of the weekend.

XBRUSD 4  HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Showing signs of life with a higher low following a  bounce from midway (4350) between 4100-4600.
• However, to make it more than a bounce, 4479 would need to be taken out followed by a move above 4500.
• On the downside, needs to hold above 4374 to keep a bid.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

There seems little choice but to trade defensively ahead of the week end, month/quarter end on Tuesday and a holiday shortened week ahead of the Easter break in what remains a headline (and oil) driven market.

This has seen firmer oil set a modest risk off tone and the dollar trade mixed to a touch firmer (except vs a lagging AUD and NZD).

• EURUSD: Trading within 1.1500-50, downside more exposed while below 1.1550 but contained while above 1.15. Key supports lie below 1.15. (1.1484, 1.1442, 1.1410)
• USDJPY: Trades firm but still yet to crack 160 (BoJ?)
• GBPUSD: Keeping pace with EURUSD. Key support is nit until 1.3234.
• USDCAD: Keeping a bid while above 1.38. Tight range 1.3835-65. So far not benefiting from firmer oil
• AUDUSD: Remains on the defensive but ckagging today and onsolidating within a .6870-.6920

[Mtl JP]

The next BET, after Asia puke, puke in London and a rocket in Brent

is on US S&P500 (bottom right pannel)

[Mtl JP]

just screaming.  see where it ends by NY close

[Mtl JP]

Note on Times of Israel
8min ago
Iran warns it will attack hotels in region housing US soldiers”

maybe refering to the earlier NYT report

[Mtl JP]

Old news, new news … ??

WSJ – Live March 27, 2026 at 12:31am ET
Pentagon Weighs Sending 10,000 More Ground Troops to the Middle East
…”The additional forces would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, supplementing approximately 5,000 Marines and paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division already deployed. These troops would join over 50,000 U.S. service members currently stationed across the region as part of Operation Epic Fury. While exact locations remain unclear, the new forces are expected to be positioned within striking distance of Iran and Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub.” …/.

For perspective
New York Times – By Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt
Iran’s Attacks Force U.S. Troops to Work Remotely
Iran has severely damaged several American military bases in the Middle East, officials say.
…”So now much of the land-based military is, in essence, fighting the war while working remotely, with the exception of fighter pilots and crews operating and maintaining warplanes and conducting strikes.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has urged people to report these new locations as it hunts for the dispersed troops.” … . … There were close to 40,000 U.S. troops in the region when the war started, and Central Command has dispersed thousands of them, some to as far away as Europe, American military officials said. But many have remained in the Middle East, although not on their original bases, military officials said.

The result, according to current and former military officials, is a war that is much harder to prosecute. …/..

[Mtl JP]

It is a rinse repeat idea
worked last Asia session

additional qtn is …
who wants to be long equities into and over the weekend

[Mtl JP]

Trade Idea
–
Asia comming on board …
nikkei priceaction dynamic could, with prudence, be used as
leading indicator for oil price s/term dynamic

I am biased:
favour looking for nikkei down hinting at brent uP

ps / risk management your responsability

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Officially Pattern wise EUR turned into daily Sell mode.

Resistances are at: 1.15400, 1.15550 & 1.15750

Supports: 1.15200, 1.15050 & 1.14850

1.13200 should be the target of this down move and depending if it holds or not we’ll be able to see the bigger picture.

 

[Author]

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