[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Hanging on by a thread with a pause above key 24643 support with a big void below it.
• Now needs to regain 25000+ and then move above 25288 to cool the risk on the downside.
• In any case 25000 is clearly pivotal and will help dictate the tone going forward.

NAS100 DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Break of 6800-20 is significant BUT ONLY if it becomes resistance as there is a void to 6715, the support level bulls do not want to see broken.
• On the upside, back above 6800-20 is needed to slow the risk, above 6870-=90 to negate it.
• As I said earlier, the uptrend has been shaken but investors with even short memories recall that sharp retracements, especially geopolitical or tariff related, have been followed by even stronger rebounds. The jury is out whether history will repeat so watch 6800 as a pivotal level that will dictate the tome going forward.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

Having established above 4650 XAUUSD is making the anticipated run towards 4800.

Why is 4800 important?

With no resistance on charts, 4800 is one of those pivotal/psychological levels that can act both as a target and obstacle.

Supports?

Much depends on the risk mood but in any case, should keep a bid while above 4690-00.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

For signs a Sell Americas Trede is picking up steam:

1. XAUUSD would need to trade at 4800 and/or
2. EURUSD would need to trade at 1.18 and/or
3. US500 would need to trade firmly below 6800 and NAS solidly below 25K and/or (and maybe most important)
4. US 10 year yield would need to race through 4.30%

[Mtl JP]

Feel the Earth move yet ?
–
‘The old order is not coming back,’ Carney says in provocative speech at Davos – cbc

Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a frank assessment of how he views the world in a provocative speech in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, where he said the longstanding U.S.-led, rules-based international order is over and middle powers like Canada must pivot to avoiding falling prey to further “coercion” from powerful actors. …/..

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• Back to square one after failing to act as a safe haven.
• Now dependent on 90K holding to prevent a run at key 89155 support
• With BTCUSD often correlates with risk on/risk off, watch US equities to see if it continues..

BTCUSD DAILY CHART

[Mtl JP]

Compromise ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Does this image from the NY Post show a willingness to compromise?

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump no plans to  attend emergency G-7 meeting

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Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Surviving the first shockwave with a pause above key 24643 support.
• Now needs to re-establish 25000+ and then move above 25285-300 to cool the risk by trading back into the opening week gap.
• Note in the current market, headlines more than technicals or fundamentals will drive the price action,

NAS100 DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

SCOTUS UPDATE ON TARIFFS: No ruling to be announced today

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• The uptrend has been shaken but investors with even short memories recall that sharp retracements, especially geopolitical or tariff related, have been followed by even stronger rebounds.
• So, it would take a move through 6800-20 and then 6715 to turn this into more than a retracement.
• On the upside, back above 6880-90 is needed to cool the risk and expose the opening week gap.

US500 DAILY CHART

[Mtl JP]

I too am eyeballing this morning’s 1.1769 high of which a clearing is needed to have a chance at the Dec high and then the 1.19 handle

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1725 as I type, HoD 1.17685

I can imagine some players are rubbing hand with glee as euro retraced most of its december slide

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• Spike on the Danish pension headline has wiped out stops to 1.1769 and quick retreat leaves it dependent on 1.1715 holding to keep the bid.
• Why EURUSD is important as it is a leader on the FX side in the4 Sell America Trade.

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART

[Mtl JP]

Another potential profit / loss opportunity

SCOTUS around 10am NYT
may or not rule on IEEPA tariffs

IF it misses today’s date, its next opp is sometime out

[Mtl JP]

For visual clarity and fwiw, of what I think I see for the Dollar:

 

[Mtl JP]

GVI 1:38 / danish exit …. WHO enters ?

no selling without a buyer on the other side

[Mtl JP]

phew … and finally:
–
DLRx 98.402 at 8:36 AM EST down-0.991 (-1.00%)
IF I am right , USD is just starting to go low(er)

[GVI Forex 2]

Sell America trade reaction to the headline (stocks down, bonds down, USD down) even though fund only had $100 mln in US treasuries

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[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks – Pre Market Losers

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks – Pre Market Gainers

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX Down Sharply At Noon On Rising Geopolitical Tensions

The DAX, which dropped to a low of 25,544.64, was down 381.30 points or 1.52% at 24,579.03 at noon. Among DAX components, only Deutsche Bank and Qiagen, up 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, were up in positive territory.

[Belgrade Bobby]

FTSE 100 Slips For 2nd Straight Session, Down More Than 1% At Noon

The UK stock market’s key index FTSE 100 declined sharply Tuesday morning as rising geopolitical tensions and Trump’s new tariff threats triggered heavy sellling at several counters from across various sectors.

[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 20 January 10am New York cut

The 200-hour moving average sits at 1.1644 with the 100-day moving average at 1.1661

[GVI Forex 2]

Why my Amazing Trader charts rock (SCROLL BELOW FOR CHART)

EURUSD high 1.1743… last 1.1727

Check out the Amaving Trader charting algo

[GVI Forex 2]

Hardline from Denmark

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• Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• Move above 1.17 has put 1.1800-20 on the radar but would need to get through 1.1743 and 1.1765 to expose it.
• With that said, geopolitical markets can be very fickle and much depends on whether President Trump gets a wakeup call from the Sell America trade when he speaks in Davos on Wednesday.

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

While fixed income has been hit around the globe, the rise in US yields along with a weaker USD is glaring as it indicates the US is not being viewed as a safe haven, more the opposite.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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