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Newsquawk US Stock Market Wrap
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Newsquawk US Market Wrap
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NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
As asked earlier, Is the bottom in? Here are the steps. Jury is out here as well.
Steps needed cited earlier
- Highly likely end to 4-day streak of bearish candles (yes)
- Stay back above 24820 (currently, yes)
- Break the trendline (yes(
- Solidly regain 25000+ (only pivoted)
- Break 25263 and 25398 to confirm )no_
As long as 24643 low holds, downside should at least see  limited follow through.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
US500 (SP500) UPDATE
As asked earlier, Is the low in? Answer: Jury is out
Here are the steps needed cited earlier:
- End the 4 day streak of bearish candles — highly likely (yes)]
- Stay back above 6760 (currently yes)
- Break the trendline (yes)
- Regain 6800+ (no, only pivoted it)
- Break 6831 to confirm (no)
As long as 6715 low holds, should at least see limited follow on the downside.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
US CPI: Distorted?
- While inflation definitely dropped a lot it’s that the data collection process itself was disrupted, which may have skewed the numbers:
- The November CPI likely contains distortions due to the shutdown’s effect on data collection.
- The headline rate may understate true underlying inflation in the economy
- The Fed will likely not take it at face value
Market Update
A friend just sent me this:Â As time keeps running out into year end, I suspect techs are going to become less reliable and trading will see more bouts of failed momentum as players will be lurking to bag profits or minimize/null losses.
Update
- US stocks took a sudden hit, no news behind it
- GOLD following lower after failing to reach 4380
- Dollar catching a bid but within day’s ranges
- BITCOIN slammed as risk mood turns, shifting focus back to 85K
- US bond yields off the post-CPI lows but still down on the day
EURUSD dips on this headline
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XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- Breaking out from this week’s consolidation range with the move above 4353 putting the record 4380 high on the radar.
- So, while above 4353 (use 4350) the record 4380 high is at risk, beyond that level is unchartered waters.
- Fallback support on dips zone 4300-50.
XAUUSDÂ 4 HOUR CHART
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE
- Was the spike to 90270 yesterday (and just as quick reversal) a phantom move, an indication of thin liquidity or something more significant?
- In any case, it is a key level on a chart along with 90620, firm breaks of which would negate the downside risk and shift it to the upside.
- Below 90K keeps the range to 85K
- Note the correlation with the rebound in stocks, especially with the NAS100..
BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART
USDJPY UPDATE
- On the defensive after hitting a wall at 155.98, helped by weaker US CPI and dip in bond yields and ahead of the expected BoJ rate hike on Friday.
- This can be seen as a glass half empty or half full depending on whether the move off 155.98 is treated as a retracement and start of a fresh run lower..
- In any case, limited range while within 155-156 awaiting the BoJ where 155.50 will be pivotal (focus on 155 while below, 156 while above) although upside limited unless 156.16 is broken.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
EURUSD struggling to stay above 1.1750
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Stocks higher after US CPI
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Philly Fed miss’
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CPI softer than expected (talk of distortions?)
(Right click on image to open a full screen in a new tab)ECB unchanged as expected. EURUSD up (also after growth projections revised up for 2026 inflation in 2025
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