[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Seems content to trade within 6800-6900 ahead of the FOMC
• Key levels are below/above at 6791 and 6925 (record)
• 6806-28 blocks 6791
• 6863 and 6895 blocks 6925

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

JOLTS beat (more jobs open)… Bond yields up, USD up

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

With a little over one day to go until the FOMC decision NAS100 seems content to trade within 25000-26000.

Levels to watch:

• Supports: Layers from 25150 – 25541 protecting 25000
• Resistance: 25830 (Monday high), 26273 (record high)

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NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

JOLTS report due next

See our Economic Data Calendar

[Mtl JP]

GVI 1:36 / euro’s price action is oscillating in a rather narrow range said the blind one

I am biased.
Currently – and still – I prefer to trade the puppy from long side or BoD

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year yields dip… so far little correlation effect but bears watching

[GVI Forex 2]

French vote on Social Security budget scheduled for around 17:30 GMT

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• JP’s preferred bias indicator is the 50 day mva
• Slope still downward but trading above it
• 1.1606 = 50 day
• Key support 1.1555
• 1.1650 has printed 6 days in a ro

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

ADP weekly jobs … no reaction

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers

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[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Gainers

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Losers

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances: 1.16600, 1.16850 & 1.17300

Supports: 1.16300, 1.16150 & 1.15900

Intraday game:

If above 1.16400 stays Bullish

If bellow 1.16300 becomes Bearish

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields remain a focus… off from yesterday’s spike to 4.192% but up from 4.15% intra-day low

[GVI Forex 2]

So much for an independent Fed although Fed Chair is only one vote

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

Nvidia headline (from the FT) was behind the brief dip in US stocks

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Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX)

Let’s see if USDX is giving any clues to USD direction.

• With EURUSD (57,6% of the index) continuing to pivot 1.1650, USDX is not giving much direction although 99.00 remains pivotal going forward.
• Current range: 98.80-99.26, tighter at 98.99-99.18

USDX 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Event risk; French vote

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Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• XAUUSD unable to shake its focus from 4200 which has printed for the 6th day in a row. This followed another test of the downside that paused above the 4163 bottom of the local range.
• On the upside, 4219 is local resistance.
• So, it is a matter of looking at a glass half empty or half filled, rewarding range traders at the expense of those looking for breakouts. An end to the 4200 pivot will tell you which glass wins out. Bulls hope it’s the glass half filled (i.e. continued support below 4200).
• Today’s range so far 4170-4213

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

It feels like the calm in the countdown until the FOMC storm.

• The dollar is trading modestly lower except vs, the JPY although USDJPY has backed off after stalling in its 146.17-56 resistance zone. A dip in US bond yields has eased some of the upward pressure on USDJPY although it is holding above 156.00
• EURUSD printed 1.1650 for the 6th day in a row as this level remains pivotal.
• GBPUSD is trading firmer but has cooled off a bit after earlier cross strength has eased.
• AUDUSD is a modest outperfomer after the RBA decision
• US data: ADP weekly jobs, JOLTS (job openings) report

 

[ST London]

Fed meeting

77 bps and 2 Fed rate cuts priced in for 2026

The expectation is for a semi-hawkish tone at the meeting

So anything that even sounds vaguely dovish will be a surprise and spark a reaction.

[ST London]

Fed meeting

77 bos and 2 Fed rate cuts priced in for 2026

The expectation is for a semi-hawkish tone at the meeting

So anything that even sounds vaguely dovish will be a surprise and spark a reaction.

[ST London]

Dec 9 (Reuters) – The strength of the euro is amplifying the deflationary effect of China’s export machine, which may end up being the catalyst that could jolt the European Central Bank out of its “good place” and into more interest rate cuts…..

[Mtl JP]

155.75 … s/t S

being tested

[Mtl JP]

GVI 12:10 — ‘s a GOOD piece.
probably worth the time to read 2x or +

[Mtl JP]

Now that usdjpy (155.86 as I type) hit 156 and did not continue uP
maybe puppy will, unpredictably, gently zig-zag slide or sudden-like massively slam down
OR
turn uP still

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog: A must read in news driven markets

How Markets Really React to News: Understanding Expectations, Sentiment, and Price Action

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY UPDATE

• What levels would the BoJ/MoF step up verbal intervention?
• Answer: 156.17 and 156.56 but line in the sand is not until 157.89
• In any case, keeps a bid while above 155.40-50 but upside contained while below 156.17
• Below 155.40-50 would shift focus back to 155.

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 155.86
–
priceaction / trade idea(s) for Asia session appreciated
TIA !

[Author]

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