[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• For the rebound to build momentum 1.1655 needs to not only be broken (high 1.1664) but become support.
• Otherwise, dependent on 1.1606 holding to maintain the new found bid.

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• What a difference a day makes! At this time yesterday EURUSD was trying to hold off a run at 1.15, USDJPY was aiming for 159, GBPUSD had traded 1.32xx, AUDUSD was trading below .70 and CAD was firmer on an oil play.
• US stocks have extended rebounds, XAUUSD (GOLD) is firmer and BTCUSD is back above 70K.
• All it took was news algos reacting to one comment by President Trump to get the ball rolling the other way, confirming once again that it is the reaction to news more than the news itself that matters and gives a clue to trading.
• In any case, it it is hard to suggest follow through without confirming news. So, it feels like another headline watching reaction to news day with one eye on crude oil and the risk mood set by US stocks.
• No key data is due from the US

[GVI Forex 2]

Scanning the headlines these do not sound like a case for risk on

 

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[ST London]

Haven’t markets learned yet it is Trump’s actions and not his (many) words that matter (like war will be over soon!

[ST London]

Opening my platform I asked..

Has the war ended or is it just panic buying in oil ending?

Or is it just life in a geopolitical crisis market?

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump: Keep oil flowing or else

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Summary End of The Day

(Right click on any chart or image to open a full screen in a new tab)

[Belgrade Bobby]

US stocks rebound into the close as Trump signals war could be over soon

Major US stock indices are rebounding after Trump said that the war could be over soon. He also said that he may look to lower sanctions on Russian oil.

He said he is thinking about taking over the Strait of Hormuz and he has someone in mind to replace the Supreme Leader.

That sent oil prices lower, and US yields lower as well. The 10 year yield which was close to 4.20% at its highest today is trading at 4.105%. Crude oil which reached the near $120 ($119.48 was the high), traded as low as $81.19. The current price is trading at $87, or -4.76% on the day

The gains are led by the Nasdaq index. A look at the final numbers shows:

Dow industrial average +239.19 points or 0.50% at 47740.74
S&P index +55.93 points or 0.83% at 6795.95.
NASDAQ index +308.27 points or 1.38% at 22695.95.
Russell 2000 rose 28.36 points or 1.12% at 2553.66

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Reaction to news (and the move down in crude oil) is what matters day, on both sides of the market.
• Bounce off the 6580 low more than filled the opening week gap but requires a move above 6846 to fully negate the downside risk.
• In the meantime, keeps a bid IF it can stay above 6706.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI News]

WTIUSD now 82.38

[GVI News]

WTIUSD 85.29

[Mtl JP]

GVI 7:24 is that bibi’s view as well ?

[Mtl JP]

Fog of War
–
either one is a h3ll of a gunslinger type trader or one with a lot of ability to be patient and tolerant in one’s price oscillations’ convictions.

[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD dips below USD90 on Trump headline

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[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

EUR continued going down within the wide channel with borders : 1.14950 – 1.17450

Pivotal is at 1.16200

Resistances: 1.16250, 1.16350 & 1.16700

As long as EUR is on defensive it will target 1.13100

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Repeating earlier post with an addendum

XTIUSD UPDATE

We like to say The Amazing Trader is the only charting algo we know of that creat\es order out of chaos. A good example is this 30 minute XTIUSD chart although it works the same with any symbol in any time frame that yiour broker offers on its platform.

Chart shows:

• Blue lines indicate downward pressure that saw stops run below USD100 and touch the top of the gap.
• Now on the upside, 104.88 (use 105.00) needs to be regained to break down momentum followed by moves through 107,33 and the 30-minute trendline to put the highs back in play.
• Otherwise, 100.00 will be pivotal not just for oil but all global markets.
• Addendum: Opening week gap just about filled (91.60 low vs 91.441 Friday close), making this key support, above which focus stays on 100.00 but only above 97.31 puts it back in play.

Try The Amazing Trader 30 day free trial

XTIUUSD 30 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Rebound off the low (23975) has more than  filled the gap (high 24724) but to  fully negate the risk,  25108+ would be needed. ..
• As noted, keep an eye on XTIUSD USD100 as it remains pivotal for all global markets

NAS100 4  HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

Fog of War
–
Trump announces he will hold a news conference from Florida before returning to DC
Hegseth says ‘there will be more casualties’ in ongoing US operation in Iran
Energy secretary says oil tankers to resume normal Middle East traffic in weeks
OPINION (By Victoria Coates Fox News): Iran war assumptions dead wrong, Trump proves experts got fooled

[GVI Forex 2]

So far follow through proving limited after some opening gaps filled in equities but not fully in some currency pairs.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 99.047 at 12:01 PM EDT

reasonable ?

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks continue to follow the dip in crude (XTIUSD last 95.80)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XTIUSD slips below USD100 as G-7 cools off market for now…. stocks up,, USD dips

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

G-7 Statement

(X)

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 99.215 at 10:45 AM EDT
–
puppy appears to struggle ahead of 99.5

[GVI Forex 2]

Defense waiting for the G-7 statement

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

GVI “US Mulls SPR Release” could also be read as indication(s) about how the “small price” bibi & trump’s war is going , eh ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Oil slips back on this headline but XTIUSD is still above USD100

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

Fog of War
–
alternative to cnn / fox / / timesofisrael / rtrs / bbrg / ap / etc

Iran International launches interactive map to track news by location

The feature allows users to explore news not only by time or topic but also by geographic location, offering a visual way to track developments across cities, provinces and countries.

Each news event appears as a marker on the map showing where it occurred. By clicking on a marker, users can open a list of related stories published about that location and read further details.

The tool enables audiences to quickly see what has happened in a particular city, province or region of the world at a glance.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Bounce off the low (6580) as crude oil retreats from its high so far not going far enough to negate the downside risk.
• 6700-10+ is what is needed to cool the risk to key supports at 6496-6508
• Keep an eye on XTIUSD USD100 as it remains pivotal for all global markets

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

Fog of War
–
empty econ calendar.
player pricing of crude out 6 and 12 months suggests uncertainty about how the “small price to pay” war will evolve both militarily and geo-politically.

Euro likely range 1.15 – 1.1650 s/term

[Author]

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