[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 15 MINUTE – Amazing Trader support holds

Held support at 1.1039…1.1050 back to being pivotal

[GVI Forex 2]

Canada imposes auto tariffs

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump not backing down

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

It looks like FX liquidation may have run its course for today.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD is back above 3100 after finding buyers above 3050 (Power of 50) after whatever liquidations ran out of steam.

[Mtl JP]

yakker on deck
14:30nyt – cook (on Economic Outlook)

[Mtl JP]

CNBC
“Trump will ‘buckle under pressure’ if Europe bands together over tariffs: German economy minister”

[Mtl JP]

10am in NY
ISM yingyang

and Yield | 10:01 AM 4.01% — down still

[GVI Forex 2]

This article is worth a read as it describes today’s price moves with insights you will likely not find elsewhere

What is a Liquidating Market and How to Trade It?

[Mtl JP]

10-yr Yield | 9:06 AM EDT
4.019% down -0.176

lower yield is a headwind to the demand for usd

[ST London]

UsdJpy

Just amusing of a stupid old fool I just wonder whether we could see 143 by the end of the week clearly once the US market closed and the Asian market opened last night we had a trend day which you have frequently described as being a liquidation day

Should we get 143? It would obviously be an access move on one could play a contra trade.
Depending on the speed that it gets there

[Belgrade Bobby]

Mtl – all that is fine, but there are two very important facts to think about:

–          Is EU really strong enough to play the game ( I don’t think so)

–          Trump said several times very clearly : we are not going to let those leaches suck our wealth through fixed currency rates – in my personal translation – Weak Dollar

So we either wait and see or someone teaches Trump the lingua of markets

[GVI Forex 2]

I added an addendum to this article after the reversal in XAUUSD made it a victim of collateral damage…

How was GOLD (XAUUSD) a victim of collateral damage?

[Mtl JP]

Bobby / the current market bias is UP for the euro which is UP vs the dlr a tad over 2%
solid sub-1.0950 would likely be needed to tame current bias.

sofar, maybe notably, european suits have not launched counterattack tariffs blabbing that they are open to negotiations. Saw a headline that EUs trade ministers to be meeting next week. Players apper to have reprice ECB rate expectations somewhat all the while gumflapping from policymakers appear to try to remain cautious about rates in the s/term at least

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

Now this is going to give us some real perspective on future moves..

1.12950 is again ( same as on daily) a very important level and in my opinion that one will be the answer to “  are we going to 1.17850 and even 1.21450” or we going to hit the wall at 1.13 area and go back to the Downtrend.

What I don’t like is today’s rally – too much , too fast – and usually it happens as a blow of rally…but taking into account reasons behind the move, and Formation that is becoming clear we are on the road to much higher levels.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

340 pips Rally – nice, but is it sustainable or we can see next move in opposite direction and with the same force?

Here comes the Daily chart

First support is at 1.09550, followed by 1.09250 & 1.08850

Resistances are at: 1.11450, 1.12150 & 1.12950

1.12950/1.13 is what we have to glue our eyes at.

[Mtl JP]

heading into NY session
USD is on back foot.
10-yr 4.059.
one could argue significantly. circa 3% vs euro. copper is down as is oil. one could read opposite meanings from copper and from oil, but also same ideas about slowing economy prospects.

on deck
intial jobless claims, ISM services and Friday NFP

[Mtl JP]

re 12:09 / President Trump, also earlier, said that IF some politicians apply retaliatory tariffs, he will squeeze their heads

[GVI Forex 2]

This came out earlier

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

This will do little to calm markets

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Using AT logic, the EURUSD spike to 1.1147 suggesrs the high is most likely in for the day… 1.1050 now pivoital… keeps a bid while aboe 1.10

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD falling below 3100 (outside day) … this could be a victim of selling winners to offset losses elsewhere or to build up cash to cover margins.

I call this collateral damage.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

Risk sentiment hit after Trump’s tariff announcement, DXY below 102 whilst EUR/USD climbs above 1.11

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 7 things you need to know for today’s market.

7 Things You Need to Know

US President Trump unveiled individual reciprocal tariffs for each country which are essentially half of what countries were charging the US.

The US is to apply a 20% tariff on imports from EU, 34% tariff on imports from China, 26% tariff on imports from India and 25% tariff on imports from South Korea.

Trump also stated that the baseline tariff is 10% for all nations and announced 25% auto tariffs, while Canada and Mexico were not subject to reciprocal tariffs for now.

Indices take a tumble after US tariffs slap sentiment; ES -3.5%

DXY briefly dipped below 102.00 whilst EUR/USD sits above 1.10; havens bid.

Yields wilt after Trump’s Rose Garden speech, desks diverge on Fed implications.

Industrial commodities sink amid growth woes and after with focus on a 54% cumulative levy on China.

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Keeping it simple. US500 5500 has potential to be a risk onrisk off indicator.

Looking at the dollar melting down, this is either capital flight or repoatriations or a combination of the two.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.11
sofar 1.1147 high

[Mtl JP]

roaring from EU
“EU preparing ‘further countermeasures’ to US tariffs: Von der Leyen”

[Mtl JP]

GVI 8:31 is it “a financial market crisis” or political screamings ?
–
at least here in canada current PM Carney and his crew were so shocked by President Trump’s “gentle-ness” that Carney took time out to consult with his advisors on how to reaction-come out, ultimately stammering that “President Trump has just announced a series of measures that are going to fundamentally change the international trading system,” and that “We are in a situation where there is going to be an impact on the U.S. economy which will build in time and in my judgment will be negative on the U.S. economy. That will have an impact on us.” and that “We are going to protect our workers and we are going to build the strongest economy in the G7,” and that Canada will fight with “purpose and force”.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – New record high but then…

New record high at 3167 abd then backing off.. this level now becoimnes key resistance.

Keeps a bid as long as it can hold above 3100-05

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY – Leading the way

JOY leading the way asw a safe haven aand now dependent on 146.50 holding or risk is for 145.00.

On the upside, 148.00-15 would need to be renewed to ease the risk.

No choice but to keep an eye on US stocks as USDJPY will stay tied to the risk mood..

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD WEEKLY –  FIRsT MISSION ACCIMPLISHED

As I noted yesterday, EURUSD 9-day pattern around 1.08 was itching for a breakout. The break of it to the upside is bullish.

If there was a mission for the bulls it was to run stops above 1.10.

With the firSt mission accomplished, it is now dependent on 1.10 (clearly the bias setter) becoming support to create an uber bid that exposes 1.1215 and 1.1275 (major)…. in the absence of nearby reisitance use 1.0150 to be pivotal of trade is between 1.10-1.11.

Otherwise, look for a bid below the market as long as it trades above 1.0950/35/20

To state the obvious, these are not normal markets so watch headlines and if risk adverse, trade close to the vest

You can open any chart by right clicking on your mouse to open it in a new tab.

 

[Author]

Posts