[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• • Failure to hold 4200 and break of 4179 has broken up momentum.
  • However, to shift risk the other way (i.e. away from 4200 and back to 4000) 4097 would need to be taken out.
  • One reason may be a meltdown in stocks where those caught out look to sell winners to cover margin or losses elsewhere.

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

See November 13, 2025 at 2:29 pm

AUDUSD 6550 turned out to be a good risk indicator

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• Momentum shifting down as BTCUSD does not like risk off.
• While back below 100K the recent 98867 low is exposed.
• Bulls will not likely to give up the fight as long as trade is above 98000 but below it would leave a big void and shake convictions.

BTCUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Last line of defense is 25000 or 24610 would be exposed.
• Otherwise, 25358+ would need to be regained to deflect focus on 25000.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, like a magnetic pull to 1.1650 since 1.1605

If 1.1668 is taken out then 1.1728 gets targeted.

Let 1.1650 be your guide

 

 

[Mtl JP]

GVI 11:11 / with euro currently sitting at 1.1650,
things should materially change if n when pricing of the puppy goes N of the 50dma.
materially would likely mean a trott of 100+ pips N.

fwiw: u r a big boy remember managing risk is thy’s responsabilité

[Mtl JP]

Player 50-50 means they are “torn” in half, which means they “do not know”, which implies uncertainty which, because we are talking about prospect for interest rate, means negative for the dollard (and so positive for equities).

side note / should be making Pres Trump happy(ier)

[Mtl JP]

FED cut at close(r) to 50/50
–
The devils at the FED, with their inconsistent bable about the dec 10th decision is where “they” probably want players to be.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Best hope for bulls is US500  regaining 6771 and then 6810 or at least going no further down than the opening week gap.
• Otherwise, risk is for 6632.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Odds for a Fed rate cut on Dec 10 are coming down closer to 50/50 at 54/46 currently

CME FedWatch

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF UPDATE

• CHF has been a leader on the USD downside lately
• Testing key 7923 support, firm break would expose 7872 as a target.
• Intra-day resistance: 7942. 7961

USDCHF DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Stock Market Open

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Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Bad combination: Weaker stocks and higher yields = USD down

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

Failure to test 25783 has put NAS100 on the defensive (tech led) but for the optimistic bull side:

• Paused above the pivotal 25000 level
• Found support in the opening week gap
• BUT needs to regain 25358 to ease risk on the downside

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Failure to reach 6890 has put US500 more on the defensive and dependent on 6810 holding (use 6800-10 as a cushion) to contain the downside.
• Fallback support 6771.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD UPDATE

• Let’s see if AUDUSD giving back a good chunk of its gains is an isolated move or a risk indicator.
• Watch the ”50” level (6550) as a possible risk on/off indicator.

AUDUSD 1 HOUR CHART

 

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

EUR supports held, and 1.16250 is taken out. Next target is 1.16750

Supports now: 1.16050, 1.15900 & 1.15700

Next move will be directed by the close tonight – so Update will follow prior to it.

Currently on Intraday level EUR is Bullish and we can expect more tests of the upside.

[GVI News]

Nice bounce off 1.1605 (last 1.1620).  Chart to follow

Chart added

[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 13 November 10am New York cut

The first ones are for EUR/USD with the main chunk seen near the 1.1590-00 level. The expiries may play a role in limiting upside movement, at least before rolling off later in the day. As such, that could trap price action for the pair during European morning trade at the very least.

Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the pivotal 155.00 level. The pair is in a critical spot at the moment and it’s more so about how traders are going to weigh up intervention risks more than anything else. The expiries might help to keep the calm for a bit but I wouldn’t rule out a break with stops being run before the week ends.

And lastly, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6520 level. It doesn’t tie to any technical significance though, so the impact of the expiries should be rather minimal. The 100-day moving average at 0.6538 is arguably one of the more interesting points, with buyers looking to keep above that in trading today.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Pre-Market Movers

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• Good lesson here: The more times a level is tested the weaker it can become
• In this case, EURUSD 1.1610-13 was tested on this 15 minute chart 10x in a row before support gave way. Clue was bounces off support became shallower. Easy to say with hindsight but it is a pattern that often repeats.
• Watch former high at 1.1605… tested holding so far

EURUSD 15 MINUTER CHART

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 154.71
–
currently basically at price-level at yesty’s NY session closing
BUT it is around 50% retrace of the overnite 155 – 154.30 price dynamic

Which raises the Qtn when and which way the next USDJPY trade
just like that I note that the cost of short swap is horrendous by my standard

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• JP keeps a close eye on the 50 day mva and looking at this EURUSD chart, it is close (1.1662) to a key resistance at 1.1668.
• With current pattern 7 green (up) candles in a row, risk is it could become a magnet but only if today’s high at 1.1635 and then 1.1650 are taken out.
• Sub 1.1600-10 would postpone the risk

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX)\

While I don’t trade USDX I often look at it as a proxy for the EURUSD (57.6% of the index)

• Current pattern: 7 red (down) candles
• Trendline tested
• Key targets 98.09-59 should trendline be firmly broken and EURUSD breaks a key 1.1668 daily chart level

USDX DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Having regained 4200 market bias should be to buy on dips as long aa it stays above 4180-4200, stronger bid while above 4200
• Current pattern: 7 up green daily candles in a row supports a bid bias
• No key resistance until the record 4380 high so use the most recent high as only resistance.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

The dollar is trading weaker on Thursday although off its lows with interest rate expectations helping to drive the price moves. Good day for algos looking to run stops.

• AUDUSD outperforming after a strong jobs report dampened rate cut expectations.
• EURUSD extending its high to 1.1635 before backing off. shy of next key level at 1.1668.
• USDJPY pivoting 154.50 after running stops below it. This follows another failure (and lower high) just above 155
• CHF continues to benefit from prospects of a trade deal with the U.S.

[Mtl JP]

GVI 7:39 – how do you say “60 pips down” in japanese ?

[ST London]

TOKYO – The yen dipped to a record low versus the euro and wallowed near a nine-month trough against the dollar on Thursday after Japan’s new prime minister said she wanted the central bank to go slow on interest rate

The Australian dollar climbed to a two-week high, buoyed by official data showing a steeper drop in the unemployment rate from a recent four-year high than economists had forecast, reducing the possibility of further rate cuts….Reuters

[GVI Forex 2]

With USDJPY at a 9 month high, this article is worth a read

Understanding Forex Intervention: Lessons from Japan’s Approach to the Yen

[Author]

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