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Using my platform as a HEATMAPP shows…
… the dollar trading firmer but well below yesterday’s highs
AUDUSD weakest followed by EURUSD
GOLD is down but well above Thursday’s low
US stocks steady
US bonds steady after yields fell yesterday
Month end today – stay alert for the 4PM London fix
April PCE and Chicago PMI
Gold falls as dollar strengthens ahead of key US inflation data
Key points:
· Trump’s tariffs to remain in effect after appeals court grants stay
· US PCE price index report due at 1230 GMT
· Dollar up 0.2% against its rivals
·
· Gold prices fell on Friday as the dollar ticked up, while investors remained cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
· Spot gold GOLD was down 0.6% at $3,295.99 an ounce, as of 0841 GMT. Bullion is down 1.8% so far this week.
· U.S. gold futures GOLD fell 0.6% to $3,294.20.
· The dollar DXY rose 0.2% against its rivals and is on track for a weekly gain, making gold costlier for foreign buyers.
· “The U.S. dollar is up slightly this morning, which could be a source of pressure for gold,” said Carsten Menke, analyst at Julius Baer.
· “Barring a major surprise to the PCE data, I would not expect gold to show a meaningful reaction. That said, the market seems to be a bit more nervous as of late, suggesting that volatility should stay high in the short-term.”
· The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is due at 1230 GMT. The data is likely to show that inflation rose 2.2% in April, according to economists polled by Reuters, compared with a 2.3% increase in March.
· “With U.S. core PCE looming large, there is some hesitance to take new long positions in gold,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
· Investors are currently anticipating 50 basis points worth of rate cuts by the end of this year, starting in October. (USDIRPR)
· Zero-yield bullion tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment.
· Meanwhile, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the most sweeping of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Thursday, a day after a U.S. trade court ruled he had exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate block.
· Spot silver XAGUSD1! fell 0.6% to $33.16 an ounce, platinum PL1! eased 0.8% to $1,073.80 and palladium XPDUSD1! dropped 0.4% to $969.79.
Gold
Month end forex rebalancing: USD Outlook: General consensus points towards moderate USD selling pressure at month-end, influenced by equity performance during the mointh of May.
So the question is:
Can You Time Month-End Forex Rebalancing Flows?
NAS100 (NASDAQ)
Trying to pick a top in the NAS has been like stranding in front of a freight train.
However, anything other than a MOVE through 22224 (record high) would be a disappointment
High extended to 21813 but failure to firmly establish 21500+ has shifted the focus to what levels need to hold to keep this leg up intact
Key level: 21283 (low 21256)… break would need to be followed by a run through 20090 to confirm
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART
GameStop Corporation – GME
After GME bought 4.710 Bitcoins for over $ 506 Mio, to use as a treasury – reserve assets its shares dropped about 11%
Now we have to see when and where this dive will come to stop.
Supports: 29.00, 27.40 & 26.00
If it stays above 26.00 – that downtrend resistance line – turned to support it is going to consolidate and push up again.
Resistances: 32.00, 35.85 & 40.25
US Equity Indexes Mixed as Trade Court Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs Takes Shine Out of Nvidia’s Q1 Results
US equity indexes traded mixed after midday Thursday as Nvidia’s NVDA fiscal Q1 results overnight boosted technology and as investors evaluated the net outcome of a trade court ruling, casting doubt over the legal basis of the Trump administration’s tariff negotiations.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5% to 19,192.1, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to 5,908.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed at 42,109.8. All sectors except communication services rose intraday. Technology, home to Nvidia NVDA, and utilities led the gainers.
Nvidia shares jumped 4% intraday, among the top gainers on the Nasdaq, the Dow, and the S&P 500, after the chipmaker overnight reported higher fiscal Q1 non-GAAP earnings and sales. BofA Securities raised its price target on Nvidia to $180 from $160. Morgan Stanley said Nvidia is “outgrowing” expectations and competition even in the middle of supply constraints.
Analysts expect that a US federal court ruling challenging a series of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will weaken Washington’s position in trade talks. But, they also said the administration has other tools to push through the tariffs agenda.
Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 6.1 basis points to 4.42% and the two-year traded 5.5 basis points lower at 3.94%.
In economic news, pending home sales fell more than projected in April as elevated mortgage rates dampened buyer enthusiasm, the National Association of Realtors said. The forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings slid by 6.3% month-over-month, compared with a 1% decline that analysts had modelled in a Bloomberg survey. On an annual basis, pending transactions dropped 2.5%.
Meanwhile, the deceleration in US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised to 0.2% in Q1 from the 0.3% advance estimate of the slowdown, beating expectations for no revision in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. GDP grew 2.4% in Q4.
Nasdaq chart
Euro Back Above $1.13 and beyond
The euro reversed earlier losses and climbed back above $1.13, as the dollar weakened following fresh economic data that reinforced expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year.
US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1, slightly better than the initial 0.3% decline.
However, consumer spending grew at a slower pace, net trade exerted a greater drag than previously estimated, and corporate profits fell during the quarter.
Meanwhile, a federal trade court struck down President Donald Trump’s worldwide reciprocal tariffs and ordered the administration to cease their collection.
The ruling eased investor concerns about an escalating trade war.
On the monetary policy front, the ECB is set to announce its policy decision next week.
While many analysts anticipate another rate cut, some ECB officials have recently adopted a more hawkish tone, advocating for a pause in further easing.
Bitcoin, crypto rally expected to resume after dip on hawkish Fed minutes
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices posted moderate losses following hawkish signals from minutes of the May 6-7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) session released Wednesday.
U.S. Federal Reserve officials flagged potential “difficult tradeoffs” tied to persistent inflation and looming recession risks. “Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further, making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer,” the minutes read.
Bitcoin closed in losses below $107,800 following the release but has since rebounded to around $108,500, per The Block’s price page. Meanwhile, ETH closed May 28 in green and climbed higher to $2,711 on Thursday. Altcoins were mixed — XRP and SOL fell, while selective coins like Dogecoin gained, cushioning the GMCI 30 Index.
Rally optimism
Despite the brief pullback, analysts at BRN noted that institutional demand remains strong. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded 10 consecutive days of inflows, with BlackRock leading the pack.
Bitcoin continues to benefit from its positioning as a hedge and long-term asset. Corporate adoption remains strong, with more firms launching BTC reserves
Looking ahead, traders are eyeing Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — as a key macro trigger.
BTC Chart
Sterling Steadies Below 3 Year High
The British pound traded at $1.348, below its three-year high of $1.356 on May 26, as investors assessed growth and trade developments.
Weak US economic data, including a Q1 contraction and rising jobless claims, strengthened expectations of two Fed rate cuts by early 2026.
Market focus also turned to a US court ruling that blocked many of President Trump’s tariffs, creating fresh uncertainty around trade policy.
In the UK, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds aims to speed up a trade deal with the US, with tariff cuts on UK goods still awaiting Trump’s sign-off.
The court ruling may affect the context, though its impact on the deal remains unclear.
Meanwhile, the UK government proposed new rules requiring pension funds to invest more in private markets and local projects, targeting £27.5 billion in new investments.
The plan, including pooling £1.3 trillion in pension assets, faces pushback from fund managers who warn it may conflict with their duty to prioritize client interests.
What’s Hot and What’s Not?
What’s Hot
EURUSD: Went from not to hot with outside day (above 1.1346)
USDJPY: Went from not to hot after failing to stay above 145 but not an outside day
GOLD: Went from not to hot after failing to hold an overnight breakdown
US bonds: Went from not to hot (lower yields) as mood turned to risk offr
What’s Not?
US stocks went from hot to not after tariff court ruling rally stalled
BTCUSD (Bitcoin): Went from hot to not and is now down on the day
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