[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

US500 getting a reprieve from lower yields following US data but only a break of 6070 would shift the focus from 6000 as the ultimate bias setter.

I posted this last night and another example that levels matter – low today so far 5986 but trendline has been broken

Trend up BUT

Disappointing after extension of its high to 6070 failed to follow through.

Now dependent on 5986 -00 and the trendline holding to keep a bid.

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…

.. the dollar trading weaker, led by the EUR, JPY, CHF while GBP follows with a lag as mood turns to risk off .

Exceptions are AUD , NZD, CAD, NXN

What caught my eye is the USD did not get safe haven flows in rising Middle East concerns. Not mentioned as a factor but use of military to quell immigration protests is not helping the US image

US stocks are down,,, WATCH sp500 6000 AS PIVOTAL

US bond yields extending retreat following tame US CPI yesterday

Gold backed off after early spike higher but keeps a bid

Crude oil backing off a touch after sharp spike higher yesetdray

Data focus today:

US weekly jobless claims and PPI

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Trend up BUT

Disappointing after extension of its high to 6070 failed to follow through.

Now dependent on 5986 -00 and the trendline holding to keep a bid.

Minor support 6017

US500 (SP500)  4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Trend up

Record high at 6139 on the radar while above 6000

Post-CPI hgigh at 6070 is now a key resistance… above 6050 needed to expose it.

Expect support on dips while above 6000-17

US500 (SP500) ONE HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Trend: Up

Keeps a bid while above 6000… next hurdle is the .6050 level.

Stocks looking for a reason to go higher, hoping for progress from US-China talks

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Stocks looking for a reason to go higher, hoping for progress from US-China talks

Momentum: Consolidating after a new high (6035) overnight

Needs a break of 6035 for a fresh leg high

Only back below 5985-00 negates the risk.

US500 (SP500) ONE HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Momentum: Up BUT

Break of 6017 soi far now following through (high 6022)

6000 clearly pivotal (keeps a strong bid while above it)

Risk on this leg pointed up as long as it trades above 5986

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Momentum: Up BUT

So far pausing below 6017 resistance

6000 clearly pivotal but only below 5954 would break the momentum.

Watch US-China trade talks headlines… bulls are hoping for positive news

US500 (SP500) ONE HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

JPM’s bullish SP500 call

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GV News]

US Equity Indexes Rise in Week on Labor Market Resilience, Tech Gains, China Trade Talks

US equity indexes rose this week after a broad Friday rally on data signalling labor market resilience, along with gains by tech giants and easing US-China trade jitters.

* The S&P 500 rose to 6,000.36 on Friday from 5,911.69 a week earlier. The Nasdaq Composite climbed to 19,529.95 from 19,113.77, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced to 42,762.87 from 42,270.07.

* Communication services and technology led sectors this week, while consumer staples posted the biggest drop. Meta Platforms META, Nvidia NVDA, and Amazon.com AMZN were among the top 10 gainers in a group of companies with a market capitalization of more than $200 billion.

* Nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The consensus was for a 126,000 increase, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gains for April were revised down by 30,000 to 147,000 and slashed by 65,000 for March.

* “Nonfarm payrolls remained resilient last month despite heightened trade policy uncertainty,” TD Economics senior economist Thomas Feltmate said in a note, referring to negotiations globally after Trump announced wide-ranging punitive import duties. While the downward revisions took “some of the shine off the headline payrolls print, it’s fair to say that the labor market is holding up better than expected,” he said.

* Investors awaited the Trump-Xi call amid concern trade talks had stalled. “I just concluded a very good phone call with President Xi, of China, discussing some of the intricacies of our recently made, and agreed to, Trade Deal,” Trump said Thursday. “The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries.”

* Top officials from the US will meet with a Chinese delegation in London on Monday to continue trade negotiations, Trump reportedly said Friday.

 

SP500 Chart

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 4.482%, +8.7 bps … USDJPY tests 145

SP500 slips back below 6000…USDJPY slips back below 145

[GVI Forex 2]

Now the dust settles… stocks up sharply (see if SP500 holds 6000+) while USD is up but mixed (EURUSD back to 1,14 after running stops below 1.1375)

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR

Similar to others: Outside day. Failed breakout and retreat after target hit at 6006. Potential to turn bearish or at least a stall..

Momentum: Clinging to trendline to keep it pointed up

Otherwise: 5950 is pivotal

Needs above it to keep 6000+ on the radar

Below it risk is for 5900 or below

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Stocks getting some relief from XI and Trump call posts

Held the Power of 50 level (5950)

Now would need to get through 5990 to put 6006 back on the radar.

US500 (SP500) 15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Here is where ther6006 resistance came from…  on an AT Daily Chart

US500 (SP500) DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500

Spike on Trump-XI call headline paused dead on at 6006 resistance

Now dependent on 5950-60 holding to prevent a shift in risk to 5900

US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Momentum: UP but struggling

Needs to move through tough 5995-6006 or risk a stall if not taken out..

Keeps a bid while above 5950-66, below it would put 5900 back on the radar

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR

So far absorbing two body blows from weaker US data

Momentum: UP but..

Needs to move through tough  5995-6006 resistance to build momentum further.

Keeps a bid while above 5959-66, below it would put 5900-60 back on the radar.

US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR

Momentum: UP

Keeps a bid if 5945 becomes support.

Break of 5945 puts a potentially tough 5995=6005 zone on the radar.

A move above 6005 would put the record 6140 back in play

However, anything other than a firm 6000+ break would leave it in the current range.

US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 

Momentum: Mixed

Higher low (i.e. red line) followed by a break of 5945 needed to turn 1 hour chart into an uptrend

Below 5900 needed to turn it into a downtrend

Otherwise 5900-5945/50 until either side is broken.

US500 (SP500) 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Showing resilience after holding off a RUN AT 5800.

However, to make this more than consolidation 6000+ would be needed.

US500  (SP500) 4 HOUR CHART

[michael Calif]

SP500 / Nasdaq:  Time sequence HIGHS were set mid-May; prices will move sideways to lower into August

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

A red flag?.

What is glaring is the failure to test 6000 (high 5995)

Shifts risk to the downside where 5850-80 needs to hold as support to contain it.

US500 4 Hour Chart

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

5940 double top indicates risk that high may be in or at least a pause.

For this to be more than a pause, 5850 would need to be taken out.

Note: Nvidia earnings gave stocks a late blip up.

US500 One Hour Chart

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Ran into 5940 resistance (cited here yesterday), which has potential to be a top or at least a pause

To confirm a pause, 5900-06 would need to be taken out.

For this to be more than a pause, 5850 would need to be taken out as well.

US500 One Hour Chart

[GVI Forex 2]

US500

Now that US500 5900+ has traded, this becomes the pivotal level

On the upside, it faces a tough resistance band at 5940-5957-5975 (key level) ahead of 6000-10

On the downside, keeps a strong bid while above 5900 with support as long as 5850+.trades.

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR – What AT is showing

Once again, it’s the reaction to news that matters

1) Trump flip flop on EU tariff deadline, 2) CB consumer confidence beat today

5900 the current obstacle… then 5940-67-75 stand in the way of 6000

Keeps a bid while above 5850

AT = The Amazing Trader

Get your 30 day trial by clicking on the Amazing Trader link un the menu bar at the top of this page)

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR – What AT is showing

Getting a reprieve with the bounce back above the pivotal 5800 level BUT…

… only back above 5879 would negate the downside risk.

AT = The Amazing Trader

Get your 30 day trial by clicking on the Amazing Trader link un the menu bar at the top of this page)

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR – What AT is showing

Held just below the top of 5786-5816 support to contain the downside BUT…

Only a move back above 5939 would negate the risk.

This leaves room to trade but hard to see follow through unless 5939 is taken out.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR – What AT is showing

The AT ladder strategy says when there are 3 lines (in this case blue) it often indicates the risk of an acceleration in the direction of the lines (in this case down).

This has seen 5875 broken, which confirms the end of the latest leg up.

While below 5875, then 5847 (briefly broken so far) and 5796-5816 are targeted. Note there is still a lingering opening week gap below 5786.

AT = The Amazing Trader

Get your 30 day trial by clicking on the Amazing Trader link un the menu bar at the top of this page)