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Likely to see alot of “false” or misleading headlines from the meeting depending on the source.
GBPUSD Daily
To return to the uptrend and challenge previous high at 1.36327 Cable has to go over 1.35100 today.
Failure would risk renewed tests of supports at : 1.33800 & 1.33150
On the upper side most problems are expected in 1.35950 area
If in this hour GBP manages above 1.35050 road would be open for more…Pressure right now – UP
EURUSD
Relief rally?
One change from yesterday is the deck is cleared of key sell stops until the 1.1446 low.
While a firm move above 1.1532 would confirm the break of downward momentum, back above 1.1550 would be needed to put 1.1580-1.1630 in play again.
On the downside, 1.1500-10 needs to hold as support to keep a bid. Fallback support is at 1.1485-90.
With all that said, it is hard to bet on followe through and see big bets being made ahead of the weekend
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
Markets breathing a sigh of relief after Trump indicated a wait up to two weeks before deciding on involvement in the Israel-Iran war.
Dollar is weaker after firming yesterday
Stocks are up after (CFDs) fell sharply yesterday
Gold is down as it continues in its struggle to regain a safe haven bid
Crude oil is lower spiking higher yesterday
Light calendar. Two-way headline risk should keep trading cautious into the weekend.
Trump says interest rates should be ‘2.5 points lower
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday reiterated his calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying the rates should be 2.5 percentage points lower.
“Jerome Powell is costing our Country Hundreds of Billions of Dollars… We should be 2.5 Points lower,” he said in a Truth Social post, referring to the Federal Reserve chair.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, keeping the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range.
Interest rates projections by IMF
Trump family’s company cuts stake in World Liberty Financial by 20%
One of the companies connected to US President Donald Trump and his family’s position in World Liberty Financial (WLF) has reportedly reduced its stake in the cryptocurrency platform in the last 11 days.
According to a Thursday Forbes report, DT Marks DeFi LLC, an umbrella company controlled by Trump and his family, has been slowly reducing its stake in WLF. The report noted that DT Marks DeFi LLC had a 75% stake in WLF as of December 2024, but World Liberty’s website said the company owned “approximately 60%” as of January — a stake that was further reduced to 40% sometime after June 8.
While it’s unclear whether the Trump family profited from the move, a Forbes analysis suggested that proceeds from such a sale could amount to millions of dollars.
The divestment comes amid US lawmakers calling for investigations into the president’s connections to the crypto industry. World Liberty Financial also began issuing its own USD1 stablecoin in March as Congress moves forward with the GENIUS Act, legislation to regulate payment stablecoins in the country.
The GENIUS Act passed the US Senate last week with support from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers, but could face similar challenges in the House of Representatives over Trump’s crypto ties. The president took to social media on Wednesday evening to urge the chamber to pass the bill “ASAP.”
Conflicts of interest claims abound between Trump and crypto
WLF, backed by Trump and his family, has been at the center of controversies surrounding the president as he attempts to enact policies related to cryptocurrency through executive orders and acts of a Republican-controlled Congress.
In May, an Abu Dhabi-based company said it intended to use the platform’s USD1 token to settle a $2 billion investment in Binance.
As of March, the company had raised roughly $550 million through two public token sales. Trump personally reported more than $57 million in income through the venture as of June.
Ethereum Analysts Eyes High Timeframe Close – Range Break Above $2,800 Could Be Violent
Ethereum is currently facing a pivotal moment as it continues to consolidate below the $3,000 level. Bulls are targeting a breakout above this key resistance zone, which could trigger a major upward move. However, broader market conditions remain fragile. Geopolitical tensions—particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran—continue to create a high-risk macroeconomic environment, leading to increased volatility and intermittent selling pressure across risk assets.
Despite these challenges, ETH has shown resilience by holding above the $2,500 support zone. The price has remained locked in a narrow trading range for weeks, reflecting market indecision and caution among participants. According to a technical analysis shared by top analyst Daan, Ethereum continues to trade within this very tight range, with price wicks on both sides consistently getting absorbed. This type of price action signals growing compression, often a precursor to a strong directional move once one side gives in.
Traders are now closely monitoring the structure for a higher timeframe close above $2,800, which could validate bullish momentum and open the path toward $3,000 and beyond. Until then, the market appears balanced, and any shift in geopolitical developments may quickly tilt sentiment in either direction.
Ethereum Prepares For Breakout as Market Awaits Confirmation
Ethereum remains over 60% below its 2024 high of $4,100, but the asset is showing signs of recovery after months of downward pressure and indecision. Bulls have struggled to regain control throughout the year, but recent price action indicates the start of a potential rally. This recovery, however, remains tentative and will require confirmation through a higher timeframe close above critical resistance levels, particularly the $2,800–$3,000 range.
The broader environment continues to weigh heavily on sentiment. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainty—including rising U.S. Treasury yields and concerns about inflation—are creating headwinds for risk assets, Ethereum included. Despite this, ETH has managed to hold key support above the $2,500 level, a sign that bulls are defending their ground.
JP Morgan says Strait of Hormuz closure could trigger a sustained oil price shock
JP Morgan believes that a Strait of Hormuz closure would likely trigger a sustained oil price shock that will reverberate through global macro developments, the bank said in a note.
It said that in the most extreme case of a broader regional conflagration that includes the closure of Hormuz, it estimates oil prices could surge to $120-130 per barrel.
Citi sees oil prices of $75-$78/bbl if war disrupts 1.1 mln bpd of Iran’s oil exports
Analysts at Citibank said on Thursday they expect escalation of the Iran-Israeli conflict could boost Brent crude oil prices by about 15% to 20% from the pre-conflict average of $65 per barrel, if the war disrupts 1.1 million barrel per day (bpd) of Iranian oil exports.
“This implies Brent prices should be in the $75 to $78/bbl range,” Citi said in a note.
US Futures Fall Further on Juneteenth Holiday
US stock futures fell further during Thursday’s Juneteenth holiday as heightening geopolitical conflict in the Middle East trimmed riskier positions, while markets continued to assess stagflationary risks from the Fed’s SEP. The three main averages were nearly 1% lower following Wednesday’s flat close.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, with Chair Jerome Powell striking a cautious tone amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Powell reaffirmed a data-dependent approach, pointing to unclear inflation impacts from President Trump’s tariffs and the risk of stagflation.
Fed projections now include two rate cuts in 2025, alongside downgraded growth expectations and higher inflation forecasts.
Investor sentiment was further dampened by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict stoked fears of deeper US involvement.
Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended Wednesday day in the red, led by declines in energy, while technology outperformed.
SP500 chart
Israel restarts limited gas exports amid ongoing conflict, Egypt still waiting
Israel has resumed limited natural gas exports from surplus supplies, the country’s Energy Ministry said on Thursday, nearly a week after shutting down two key offshore fields as Israel and Iran waged an air battle.
A ministry spokesperson told Reuters that exports are now resuming “from surpluses, after domestic needs are met.”
An energy ministry source said most of the limited exported gas is currently flowing to Jordan, and only “tiny volumes” reached Egypt this week.
Egyptian fertilizer producers, who were forced to halt operations due to the supply disruption, told Reuters they have yet to receive any gas but expect flows to resume next week.
The Egyptian Petroleum Ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Following military escalation in the region, Israel halted exports on June 13 after closing the Leviathan field, operated by Chevron and the Karish field operated by Energean. Only the Tamar field has remained operational, supplying mainly domestic demand.
Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said on Wednesday that exports would only resume once military authorities deemed it safe.
“I don’t want to use our strategic storage, so therefore, I needed to cut exports,” he told Reuters.
Egypt, which has increasingly relied on Israeli gas since a domestic production decline in 2022, is scrambling to compensate for the supply gap. The country has ramped up fuel oil use in power plants and has signed deals to import over $8 billion worth of liquefied natural gas, while preparing additional floating regasification units.
Israeli gas typically accounts for up to 60% of Egypt’s total gas imports and around a fifth of its total consumption, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI).
XAUUSD – Gold
Gold is in clear Uptrend and last month it is moving slowly up in little jumps…nothing significant, but coming close to previous all time high at 3500.00
Today it tested a support at 3345.00 and now for it to continue Up with again a bit higher high it needs to go over 3390.00
Tomorrow is Friday – end of the week – so it should test a bit lower – around 3355.00 and then above 3390.00 and close above.
That is if it doesn’t break below 3340.00, in which case it would target 3285.00
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