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I posted this soon after the war started. Since then there have been unintended consequences
The longer the war goes on the greater the risk of unintended consequences.
The law of unintended consequences states that actions—particularly policy decisions, regulations, or interventions—always have unanticipated, often negative, effects. Popularized by sociologist Robert K. Merton, this principle highlights how complex systems often produce results opposite to their intended purpose due to poor foresight and unforeseen human reactions.
Unintended consequences:
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz => Oil prices surged => Increased inflation risk => US bond yields rose => Fed rate cut expectations have been scaled back to 1 or none this year => ???
Newsquawk US Market Wrap 2
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
US FX WRAP: Dollar extends on gains as Middle East war rages on
US FX WRAP: Dollar extends on gains as Middle East war rages on
NZDUSD (4HR)
The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.584, reaching its lowest level in more than seven weeks as investors became more cautious due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
NZDUSD is trading within a descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, reflecting continued bearish momentum. The pair recently broke below a key horizontal support level near 0.5930, which has now turned into resistance and reinforced the downside pressure.
Resistance and support around 0.5800, and 0.5860.
Mood turning risk off, Oil up, USD up, stocks down… no specific news other than this headline and defense ahead of the weekend.’
‘AUDUSD (4HR)
The Australian dollar rose in Asian trading on Wednesday against a basket of global currencies, extending gains for the fourth consecutive day versus the US dollar and reaching its highest level in four years, supported by the decline of the US currency ahead of key US inflation data. However, the pair pulled back from its recent highs as the US dollar regained some strength
AUDUSD has been trading within a broad ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe. After testing the upper boundary near 0.7150, the pair faced selling pressure and pulled back toward the middle of the structure.
The pair is currently trading near the 200-period EMA around 0.7020. Support is around 0.7000, while resistance is near 0.7080.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- Getting an early respite from a dip in crude oil but with XBRUSD back above $100 and XTIUSD at $95 ,stocks seem hard pressed to gain up momentum into the weekend.
- For that to occur, a move above 24909 would be needed (high 24787)
- Otherwise, dependent on 24378 holding to keep thoughts away from 23975.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
U of M Consumer Sentiment: Slight headline beat, slight expectations miss
US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- Bounced right off 6636 (Amazing Trader algo chart) to keep the key 6580 low intact
- This cools the downside by maintaining the broad range but would need to break 6756 to negate the risk and shift focus back to 6800.
- Keep an eye on crude oil as the back off highs today helped give stocks a lift.
US500 4 HOUR CHART
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