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Market Update: Indices (4 hour)
Both consolidating, NAS100 in a stronger position having (barely) extended its record high) and subsequent retracement pausing above 30K.
US500 did not confirm with a new record high and is back to pivoting 7700, currently supported back above it.
What stands out today is a reluctance to chase headlines and gyrations in crude oil given (latest headline suporting the hope crowd). In addition, the early part of next week will likely be dominated by month/quarter end flows.
USDJPY 4 HOUR: CLEAR UNDERERFORMER
With the Fed setting the bar high for being hawkish, the JPY has sold off after the as expected BoJ rate hike in what was not a unanimous decision.
USDJPY moving through 157.52 = 61.8% has put 158 on the radar, a level the BoJ may look to covertly defend given the void of key levels until 160+ on the upside.
So 2 levels to watch, both potentially pivotal
157.50 on the downside
158.00 on the upside
Newsquawk US Market Wrap – Stocks and bonds sold after Fed rate hike
SNAPSHOT: Equities down/flat, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold down.
US Market Wrap: Stocks and Treasuries sold, while oil surges as Middle East tensions escalate
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
AUDUSD appears to be losing steam after reaching a 4-month high of 0.7223 on Monday, sparking speculation that the bulls may take a backseat in the short term. However. the bullish crossover between the 20- and the 50-period SMAs sustains optimism that any pullbacks could represent healthy consolidations rather than a disruption in the multi-week uptrend.
USDJPY 1 HOUR: Bounce off the low
As noted yesterday, the break below 155 had left a void until 152.00-07 as the next target and USDJPY made a run at it before pausing at 152.88.
The subsequent bounce has created some up short-term momentum off higher lows (2 red AT lines) that would need to get through 154.38-63-80 to shift the focus back io 155.
Otherwise it is consolidation with upside contained while below the layer of resistance and key sell stops exhausted until/unless a new low is made.
EURUSD has entered a tight consolidation range between its 20- and 50-period SMAs at 1.1605 and 1.1617 respectively, following a partial recovery from its post-NFP low of 1.1584. Despite the recent rebound, buyers have failed to clear last week’s resistance around 1.1617 keeping downside risks active
BTCUSD 4 HOUR: Pivotal round numbers
There is a psychological component to trading this crypto where pivotal round numbers can often have a greater impact than fine tuning technical chart points.
In this regard, failure above 82K has cooled the upside, leaving 80K as pivotal and one BTCUSD is having troublke holding aboive.
To suggest a break of the current consolidation, sub-78K would be needed.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Consolidating for now
What stands out on this chart is the failure above 4509 and below the 4 hour trendline but so far the retreat puts it into a consolidation range.
Key levels are clear at 428/ 4510-4 hour trendline For momentum to build to the downside, 4365 would need to be taken out (LOD 4385). Otherwise, tighter range is 4365-4490.
USDJPY found some 📈buyers near the crucial 155.00 level early on Friday, a zone previously defended by FX intervention, following a sharp two-day drop from 160.00.
The focus now shifts to the US nonfarm payrolls report due at 12:30 GMT. While traders remain laser-focused on inflation after Fed Governor Waller pushed September rate-hike odds down to 50%, a solid jobs print could still prompt policymakers to hike rates
Meanwhile, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, reiterated that Tokyo remains on high alert to intervene against excessive yen weakness
